SpaceX Post-IPO: One Month In and Already Following the Classic Script
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135. The stock didn’t waste time it ripped higher and hit $225 within weeks. Classic IPO pop. Retail piled in, hype went into overdrive, and for a brief moment it felt like the rocket company could do no wrong.
One month later, reality is biting. The stock is trading right around $136 basically back at the IPO price. That’s a 40% drawdown from the peak in just weeks.
If the well-worn post-IPO pattern holds, the next stop is uglier. A full 50% haircut from the IPO price would take it down to the $70 zone. That level sits below the entry for almost everyone who bought at or after the listing. That’s usually where the real pain hits, retail capitulation kicks in, and the long “dead money” phase begins sometimes lasting years before any sustained move higher.
None of this is a knock on the company itself. SpaceX builds real rockets, dominates launch, and has a genuinely impressive moat in an incredibly difficult business. The technology and vision are legitimate.
But the market doesn’t price the story alone. It prices the structure.
Right now SpaceX carries a $1.77 trillion valuation while burning $4.9 billion a year. Only about 4% of the shares were available in the initial float, which helped fuel the early squeeze. That’s changing fast. The lockup schedule is set to release significantly more shares, expanding the float by as much as 14 times by December. That supply overhang is already looming.
This is exactly how the IPO machine often works: great company, difficult investment at least in the early chapters. The sketch that’s been circulating nailed the phases so far: IPO pop, euphoria, unwind, deep correction, then years of sideways grinding before fundamentals can truly take over.
We’re clearly through phase one and two. The question now is whether the rest of the drawing plays out. $70 would be brutal for late buyers, but historically that’s often where the real long-term entry points form once the hype is completely washed out and patience becomes the only edge.
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