To The Moon

11 August 2026

Renewed deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices and US Treasury yields higher, while concerns over Nvidia’s financing model and Intel’s share offering weighed on technology stocks. All three major US indices closed slightly lower.

S&P 500 fell 0.06% to 7,753.12

Dow Jones fell 0.11% to 53,976.04

Nasdaq fell 0.32% to 26,605.36

US 2-year Treasury yield rose approximately 4 basis points to around 4.24%

US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 6 basis points to around 4.70%

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News

1. US-Iran tensions escalate as the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain; oil jumps about 5%

* Iran had demanded compensation from the US and Israel for war-related damages, making it one of the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

* Trump responded by instructing US negotiators to demand compensation from Iran in all future negotiations for deaths, injuries and other damage allegedly caused by Tehran.

* Trump also claimed that the US military currently has “100% control” of the Strait of Hormuz, describing the US Navy’s blockade as a “steel wall.” However, commercial shipping has yet to return to normal.

* Iran is also demanding that the US lift sanctions, end military threats and unfreeze Iranian assets, highlighting the substantial differences over compensation, sanctions and management of the waterway.

* Iran appointed former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, replacing Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr. There is currently no indication that the leadership change represents a shift in policy.

* The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by another 6.1 million barrels last week to 298.7 million barrels, dropping below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983 and well below approximately 415 million barrels at the start of the year.

* WTI crude rose approximately 5.1% to US$82.13 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed to US$87.72, renewing concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Market impact: If disruption to the strait persists, higher oil and transportation costs could lift inflation expectations and Treasury yields while squeezing profit margins in the airline, transportation and consumer sectors.

Positive counterpoint: The US still has several buffers, including its strategic reserves, domestic energy production and temporary shipping arrangements. The US and Iran also remain in contact through Oman, meaning diplomatic channels have not completely closed.

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2. Nvidia joins six Wall Street giants in a plan to mobilise US$500 billion for AI infrastructure

* Nvidia is working with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to establish AI computing-financing platforms.

* The plan seeks to mobilise more than US$500 billion of third-party capital for AI chip purchases, data centres, power generation and related infrastructure.

* Nvidia’s main role is to connect financial capital with computing capacity and AI customers. This does not currently mean that Nvidia will provide all the capital itself.

* The financing platforms could allow AI laboratories, enterprises, cloud providers and governments to access Nvidia computing capacity with less upfront capital, expanding Nvidia’s potential customer base.

* However, it remains unclear whether the entire US$500 billion represents new commitments, which projects will receive funding, what the financing costs will be and whether Nvidia will provide any guarantees.

* Investors are concerned that Nvidia is evolving from a chip supplier into a facilitator of customer financing, potentially creating a circular arrangement in which customers obtain financing, use the money to purchase GPUs and allow Nvidia to recognise revenue.

* Nvidia’s five-year credit-default swap spread rose approximately 5.3 basis points to 77.2 basis points, its largest one-day increase in two weeks. Its shares fell approximately 2.9%, indicating that the credit market is demanding greater compensation for risk.

Market impact: Investors may place greater scrutiny on AI-related debt, customer creditworthiness and financing structures, creating near-term valuation pressure for Nvidia and other AI companies with heavy capital requirements.

Positive counterpoint: Most of the funding is expected to come from third-party financial institutions rather than Nvidia alone. The US$500 billion initiative could also accelerate AI data-centre construction and generate long-term orders across the GPU, power, networking, storage and cooling supply chains.

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3. Meta promotes smaller open-weight models, Microsoft expands custom AI chips and Intel launches a major share offering

* Meta released Muse Glimmer, a small open-weight AI model that can run locally on a personal computer using a single graphics card. It is designed for coding, administrative work and other agentic tasks.

* The model was distilled from the larger Muse Spark model, allowing it to retain some reasoning and agentic capabilities while requiring less computing power.

* Mark Zuckerberg urged the US government to lower barriers for open-weight AI models, arguing that a more open ecosystem would help American developers compete with China.

* Smaller models can reduce inference costs, improve local data privacy and allow more businesses to deploy AI applications without relying entirely on large cloud-based models.

* Microsoft reportedly plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September and is discussing the delivery of more than 300,000 units in 2027 with TSMC. Its longer-term production target could exceed one million units.

* Microsoft hopes Maia will reduce its dependence on Nvidia GPUs and encourage major cloud customers, including Anthropic, to adopt its custom AI chips.

* Intel announced a US$15 billion common-share offering, with underwriters receiving an option to purchase an additional US$2.25 billion. The proceeds will support a capital-expenditure plan of more than US$20 billion, but the announcement sent Intel shares down approximately 4.1%.

Market impact: The adoption of custom chips and smaller models could intensify Nvidia’s long-term competition, while Intel’s share offering creates dilution and raises concerns about returns on capital.

Positive counterpoint: Smaller models mainly reduce the cost of inference, while training advanced large models still requires substantial computing power. Microsoft’s and Intel’s increased chip investments provide further evidence that underlying AI-infrastructure demand remains strong.

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4. Apple’s sell-equivalent ratings reach their highest level since 2012 as the company tests CXMT memory chips

* Jefferies downgraded Apple to “Underperform” and lowered its price target from US$286 to US$264. This increased the number of firms with sell-equivalent ratings on Apple to six, matching the highest level since 2012.

* Jefferies is primarily concerned that Apple has reportedly cancelled its all-glass iPhone planned for the iPhone’s 20th anniversary in 2027 because of poor production yields.

* The premium device was expected to be priced at approximately US$2,060, potentially raising Apple’s average selling price and helping offset higher costs for memory and other components.

* Analysts are also concerned about the slow rollout of Apple’s AI features and the potential pressure on gross margins if future iPhones require greater memory capacity.

* Apple shares fell approximately 1.5% overnight. However, the company’s latest quarterly iPhone revenue still increased 21.7% to US$54.25 billion and exceeded market expectations.

* Apple is reportedly testing DRAM from China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies for selected iPhones and MacBooks sold in China, potentially diversifying its supply beyond Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.

* CXMT’s share of global DRAM revenue reportedly reached approximately 7% in the second quarter. However, negotiations remain at an early stage and face uncertainties involving capacity, pricing and US regulatory approval.

Market impact: Concerns over iPhone innovation, Apple’s AI progress and rising component costs could continue to pressure its valuation. If CXMT successfully enters Apple’s supply chain, it could also weaken the pricing power of established DRAM suppliers.

Positive counterpoint: The broader Wall Street consensus remains favourable, with 32 of 51 analysts maintaining buy ratings. The latest quarter also showed double-digit iPhone revenue growth, while a more diversified supplier base could help Apple manage long-term costs.

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Daily | Tonight’s Focus

Major developments

* Continue monitoring the US-Iran negotiations through Oman over the Strait of Hormuz and whether oil can remain above US$80 per barrel.

* Watch US Treasury issuance and the effect of higher oil prices on the 10-year Treasury yield.

* Markets will begin positioning ahead of the US July CPI report, which is confirmed for Wednesday, 12 August, rather than tonight.

US economic data

* 6:00pm Singapore time: July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Market forecast: approximately 97.0; previous reading: 97.4.

* 10:00pm: July US existing-home sales

Market forecast: approximately 4.05 million annualised units; previous reading: 4.09 million.

* 2:00am the following morning: July US federal budget balance.

Key technology earnings

* CoreWeave (CRWV) — after market close

* Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — after market close

The market will focus on AI-server and GPU-cloud demand, order growth, capital expenditure, financing requirements and profit margins at both companies.

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$  $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$