I’m not ready to call the end of the AI optics cycle after COHR dropped 14%, LITE 8.6% and AXTI 16.7%. To me, this looks more like a valuation reset ahead of $COHERENT(COHR)$ earnings than proof that AI optical demand has weakened. AAOI’s 800G growth and Lumentum’s long-term InP supply deal still point to strong underlying demand.

However, expectations are extremely high. Even strong growth may not be enough if COHR’s margins or guidance fail to beat what investors have already priced in. Trade restrictions could also create a mixed impact, helping U.S. suppliers while raising upstream supply and cost risks.

Personally, I’m waiting for COHR’s earnings before making an aggressive move. Strong results and guidance could make this selloff an attractive reset, but continued weakness despite good numbers may signal further valuation compression. For me, the key question is whether future growth can still justify the market’s high expectations.

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

# 💰Stocks to watch today?(11 August)

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  • zippixo
    ·14:23
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    AAOI 800G growth alone does not prove the whole optics demand stays strong. If InP supply risk and costs keep rising, does one Lumentum deal really offset that?
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    • Shyon
      We might have an answer tonight
      18:10
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  • AgathaHume
    ·14:23
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    I rechecked COHR's gross margin trend, and yeah guidance matters more here. If margins only meet, not beat, this reset probably isn't done
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    • Shyon
      Thanks for sharing your insights
      18:10
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