Here's the Potential 3x Opportunity for AEVE
Here's the potential 3x opportunity for $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$:
1. OPTICS SEGMENT
Management are guiding for "millions and millions of units" likely giving them "multiple hundreds of millions" per annum in revs.
Conservatively, I think $300M by 2029 and $400M by 2030 is the range we're talking given H2 27 is the initial ramp up with a big production ramp up in 2028.
2. PERCEPTION BUSINESS
Still pre-scale but looking at ~$522M in revs as per analysts in FY29.
3. TOTAL REVS
Given the risks, I think it's sensible to work ~60-80% risking factors here.
60% * $822M = $493M in revs
80% * $822M = $657 in revs
4. SHARE DILUTION ESTIMATES
Current share count is at 69.7M.
SBC is unavoidable at this stage. 3-4M shares per annum vesting over 3 years -> potential 10-12M in shares.
At $125M annual cash burn and $180M in cash, I think modelling in 2 raises seems sensible. Assuming $125M raises at $25-$35 share price -> another 12-14M shares.
Warrants and options -> another 10-12M shares.
2029 estimated share count is therefore just above 100M.
Using the 60% risking factor, $657M in revs * a 12x multiple (fair given $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$, $Lumentum(LITE)$, $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ multiples, improved profitability, and 171% CAGR from today).
12x * $657M = $7.8B
$7.8B / 100M (share count) = $78 share price
That's a 3.25x from today.
(Note these are assumptions that I have tried to make with conservative risking factors).
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