Zhipu's shares tumble — fair value adjustment or a golden chance to buy the dip?
Today, $Z.AI(02513)$ at one point plunged over 16%, with its share price approaching the key HK$1,000 level. $MINIMAX-W(00100)$ also tumbled more than 12% at one point, with its stock price briefly falling to near HK$282. Domestic large-model AI stocks may be facing a critical test.
On the news front, Goldman Sachs and UBS have issued "Hold" and "Buy" ratings on $Z.AI(02513)$, respectively, with no notable negative catalysts apparent. However, on August 17, Daiwa released a research report pointing out that the market reaction to $Z.AI(02513)$'s GLM-5.3 model, released on August 14, was tepid. Daiwa believes the primary reason is that GLM-5.3 did not meet market expectations of being a larger-parameter flagship model. In addition, Daiwa noted that intensifying competitive pricing pressure from peers continues to weigh on Zhipu. Even though DeepSeek has raised its V4Pro model pricing, GLM-5.2's blended API price is still 2.2 times higher than DeepSeek V4Pro's off-peak price. Moreover, GLM-5.3 has yet to be priced as of today. This persistent pricing pressure will directly impact $Z.AI(02513)$'s future revenue, and the company's profitability remains to be validated.
$Z.AI(02513)$ has plummeted nearly 60% from its peak, with its market capitalization evaporating approximately HK$900 billion. At its peak, the company's market cap once reached HK$1.39 trillion, surpassing giants like $MEITUAN-W(03690)$, $BYD COMPANY(01211)$, and $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ at their respective peaks.
At its all-time high, $Z.AI(02513)$'s price-to-sales (PS) ratio hit 1,300x—far exceeding the 50–100x PS levels seen for software stocks like $Snowflake(SNOW)$ during the dot-com bubble, and vastly higher than the current 20–30x PS multiples of AI tech giants such as $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$/ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$.
Even after the sharp sell-off, $ $Z.AI(02513)$'s price-to-sales ratio still stands at around 565x, which remains extremely elevated compared to U.S. AI tech stocks. Its thin revenue base is hardly sufficient to support such a massive market capitalization. With $Z.AI(02513)$'s stock price briefly approaching the HK$1,000 level today, do you think $ $Z.AI(02513)$ can hold the 1,000 mark? Is this sell-off a case of value normalization, or is it an emotional overreaction that has unfairly punished the stock?
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- zingie·08-18 15:32565x PS still looks absurd even after the flush. Hard to call that fair value when NVDA and Snowflake trade in a different universe1Report
- Investing Leon·08-18 20:58Zhipu’s latest AI models have fallen short of expectations, which has had a significant impact on the stock price.1Report