NDX Bullish Setup Is Gone
Good morning, tigers! ☀️
The bullish SMT divergence on $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is now gone. That was the last major piece of confluence supporting the immediate bounce scenario.
With that signal invalidated, the near-term bias shifts back to the downside. 📉
🎯 First: Lower Prices
I’m looking for $NDX to move lower first, with the next focus on the previously identified equality targets.
I don’t want to chase the initial selloff, though. The better setup may come after the first leg lower.
🔄 Then: Wait for Wave 2
Once those downside targets are reached, I’ll be watching for a corrective bounce — Wave 2.
That rebound is the move I’m most interested in.
Lower first → Wave 2 bounce → Look for the short. 🎯
A corrective rally would give the market room to reset while creating a potentially cleaner risk/reward setup for the next bearish leg.
⚠️ The Bigger Bearish Thesis Hasn’t Changed
The loss of the bullish SMT doesn’t mean the market has to fall in a straight line. Sharp countertrend rallies can still happen.
But for now, the larger bearish structure remains intact.
The bullish bounce case has weakened. The downside comes first.
And if Wave 2 develops as expected, that’s where I want to get short. 🔻
The larger bearish move may have only just begun.
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