$10 Million Betting Against NVIDIA Post-Earnings

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

With this earnings report, NVIDIA has cemented its status as the Federal Reserve of the AI world. Going forward, its earnings releases will be roughly equivalent to macroeconomic data releases. I haven't figured out the full implications yet, but one thing is clear: the nature of the company has changed.

Wednesday's largest block trade combo was Sell Put 200 + Buy Call 220 + Sell Call 230. As today's opening showed — opening at 222, hitting 225 intraday — it was remarkably precise.

Next week, there's no need to look at open interest data or GEX analysis. Just reference today's intraday block trade: the September 4-expiry 235 Put $NVDA 20260904 235.0 PUT$ — volume 9,195 contracts, notional $11.21 million.

Direction is clear. End of story.

$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$

The biggest question right now is what Warsh will say at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Gold is being pre-positioned for a top: Sell Call $GLD 20261120 445.0 CALL$  . There's also a hedged bullish combo: Sell Put GLD20261016400.0PUTGLD20261016400.0PUT + Buy Call $GLD 20261016 450.0 CALL$ .

Although we don't know what Warsh's stance will be, gold is expected to consolidate. At the same time, we're seeing Sell Calls on Hong Kong and China A-share ETFs: $KWEB 20261016 27.0 CALL$  $ASHR 20270416 35.0 CALL$ , along with a Buy Put on $FXI 20270319 32.0 PUT$  .

$Micron Technology(MU)$

From options activity, you can feel volatility declining. Previously, bearish put strikes above 800 were rare. The rise in strike prices is a good sign — it indicates expectations of sharp volatility are fading.

There are several call combos selling near-term Calls $MU 20260925 950.0 CALL$  and buying long-dated Calls $MU 20261016 950.0 CALL$  . The basic idea is to short volatility before Triple Witching and go long after Triple Witching.

$SpaceX(SPCX)$

A collar strategy appeared: Sell Call $SPCX 20261218 150.0 CALL$  + Buy Put $SPCX 20261218 115.0 PUT$.

That said, the stock is unlikely to break below 130 in the near term $SPCX 20260904 130.0 PUT$ .

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment1

  • Top
  • Latest
  • YueShan
    ·08-28 00:42
    Good ⭐⭐⭐
    Reply
    Report