To The Moon

Today's Market Watch — September 9, 2026

The market setup has changed meaningfully since our last valuation discussion. The immediate threat to tech isn't weak AI demand; it's the combination of $100 oil + ~4.8% Treasury yields + renewed inflation risk.

What's happening today

Brent crude has broken above $100/barrel as the U.S.–Iran conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.8%, near a three-year high. U.S. equities opened weaker, with the S&P 500 down roughly 0.3%, Dow about 0.8%, and Nasdaq about 0.4% early in the session. 

Friday's U.S. CPI release is therefore becoming extremely important. Markets are now assigning roughly a 60% probability of a Fed rate increase next week, after strong employment data and renewed energy inflation. 

That is a substantially less friendly valuation environment for expensive growth stocks.

Tech: an important divergence

There's an interesting split underneath the headline weakness.

Software is getting hit harder than AI hardware. Salesforce and Intuit fell about 4% Tuesday and ServiceNow around 5%, with investors increasingly concerned that newer AI models can directly compete with parts of traditional enterprise software. The S&P software/services index dropped 1.4%. 

This reinforces my preference for the physical AI infrastructure layer over richly valued application software.

Semiconductors have already had an extraordinary year—the SOX is up almost 68% in 2026—so I'm not advocating indiscriminate buying there either. 

For our watchlist, my current hierarchy remains roughly:

NVDA → CRDO → VRT/POWL → ALAB

But I'd demand increasingly large valuation discounts if the 10-year stays around 4.8–5%.

Astera Labs: something to watch today

ALAB is presenting at the Citi Global TMT Conference today. That's worth monitoring because management has previously guided toward a Q3 revenue inflection driven by the production ramp of its Scorpio X-Series fabric switches. Q2 revenue was $392.4M, up 104% YoY. 

Fundamentally, I still like Astera very much.

At the wrong valuation, however, a great business can be a poor investment. I'd rather wait for a valuation reset than chase ALAB.

Gold is doing exactly what we wanted it to do

Gold has risen about 1.1% to ~$4,403/oz today as investors seek safety from the geopolitical escalation. 

This is particularly interesting because gold is rising despite very high Treasury yields.

Normally, ~4.8% Treasury yields are a significant headwind for non-yielding gold. The fact that gold is holding above $4,400 anyway tells us geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand are currently powerful.

I'd therefore maintain gold exposure rather than chase today's move.

Bullish: sustained geopolitical stress + weaker USD + eventual decline in real yields.

Bearish: hotter CPI → Fed tightening → real yields materially above current levels.

My read right now

I would not aggressively buy this tech dip yet.

The critical variable is Friday's CPI.

If CPI is benign and the 10-year yield retreats toward 4.6–4.7%, I'd become considerably more interested in buying quality AI infrastructure names that have corrected.

If CPI surprises higher and the 10-year breaks decisively toward 5%, I would expect another valuation compression—especially in ALAB, PLTR and other high-multiple growth stocks. That could give us much better entry points.

Meanwhile, gold and selected energy/infrastructure exposure are doing useful portfolio work against the technology concentration.

The opportunity I'm watching most closely is therefore not "buy tech because it fell." It's wait for macro pressure to force excellent AI businesses into genuinely attractive valuation bands.