To The Moon

The US tape has been sending a confusing signal. The S&P 500 printed another all-time high on 13 August 2026, profit margins are the fattest since 2008, and unemployment sits at a historically low 4.1% — yet beneath the surface the market is quietly fracturing. The Magnificent 7, the engine that carried indices for three years, has turned into a drag: Meta and Tesla are negative year-to-date, and the very concentration that powered the rally is now the risk. At the same time, the options market's dispersion gauge (DSPX) surged to a multi-year high in July 2026 even as headline volatility stayed calm — a sign that the story is no longer "the market," but the widening gap between winners and losers inside it. Sitting above all of it is a harder question few want to ask out loud: with the US carrying roughly $40 trillion in debt, how long can borrowing stay cheap, and what happens to growth-stock valuations when the math finally has to math?

We're bringing in Selina Han, Founder of Han Insights and a former Cboe economist holding a Ph.D. in Applied Economics from UIUC, alongside James, to walk through a clear three-part framework — Debt, Doom, and Dispersion — and where they see the next set of opportunities heading into the fall.

📅 Date: 11 September 2026
⏰ Time: 11:00–12:00 SGT
🔗 Register: Debt, Doom, and Dispersion Three Investing Ideas to Exploit the Current Market

Debt — Why the US Market Goes Up, and Why Borrowing Stayed So Cheap — Start with first principles: the US stock market rises because the US economy adds real economic value. But the deeper puzzle is why government borrowing costs stayed low relative to growth for so long. We'll trace the two structural reasons — the Bretton Woods architecture and the Kissinger-era petrodollar arrangement — and why, even after Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and through 2024, the dollar still dominates with roughly 90% of global FX transactions and 60% of reserves. Understanding this is the foundation for everything that follows.

Doom — When the Math Doesn't Math — Eleven Fed hikes across 2022 and 2023 reset the cost of money, and the bill is now visible. With about $40 trillion in debt and rising foreign-holding dynamics, there are really only three ways out: grow GDP faster than debt, inflate it away, or "something else." We'll take both sides of the debate that now moves bonds — should the US actively pull down long-term Treasury yields (the Treasury's case) or let the market cool the economy while inflation stays too high (the Fed's case)? — and explain why "higher for longer" may be less a forecast than a structural reality.

Dispersion — From Engine to Drag — The Mag 7 story has flipped. We'll unpack the numbers behind the shift, including the striking concentration where Micron and Nvidia alone account for roughly a third of S&P 500 earnings growth, and why that is both a strength and a fragility. Then we'll read dispersion from a second angle — the DSPX spike, moderate headline volatility, and broadening small-cap leadership — to explain why "the market" is becoming too broad a term to be useful, and what that means for how you position.

Predictions & Three Ideas for Further Research — We'll close with a clear set of calls: rates staying higher (Fed wins, Treasury loses), "the market" fragmenting into distinct stories, and the provocative view that AI spending may become negatively correlated with S&P 500 returns on a 2–3 year lag. Then three research ideas (not recommendations): a beaten-down bargain bucket of profitable names, and a case for underappreciated quality in payment networks that have lagged the index this year but whose moats we don't think crypto breaks.

📅 Date: 11 September 2026
⏰ Time: 11:00–12:00 SGT
🔗 Register: Debt, Doom, and Dispersion Three Investing Ideas to Exploit the Current Market
🏠 Selina Han: Tothemoon: Selina_Han_Insights / Website: https://haninsights.com/