To The Moon

One of the biggest stories in sportswear this week isn’t an earnings report.

It’s a brand power shift.

Kylian Mbappé has ended his roughly 20-year relationship with Nike and signed with Swiss challenger $ONON, as On prepares to enter football for the first time. On plans to launch its first football boots in 2027, with Thierry Henry joining as its Director of Football. 

At first glance, this looks like a celebrity endorsement story.

I think the more interesting question is:

Can a challenger brand turn athlete credibility into market share?

Nike has spent decades building one of the world’s strongest sports marketing machines.

But On is taking a different route.

Instead of trying to compete everywhere immediately, it has built its reputation around premium running, product innovation and a distinctive brand identity.

And the numbers show that this isn’t just marketing hype.

In Q2, On’s revenue increased 13.5% YoY to CHF850.3M, or 21.6% on a constant-currency basis.

Even more interesting:

📈 DTC sales +26%

🌏 Asia-Pacific sales +43.1%

👕 Apparel sales +47.7%

💰 Gross margin 65.4%

📊 Full-year constant-currency growth guidance: low-20% range 

Now comes the difficult part.

⚽ Football is a completely different game.

Running shoes and football boots aren’t the same market.

Nike, Adidas and Puma have decades of football heritage, distribution and relationships with clubs and national teams.

On has never sold a football boot before.

So signing Mbappé creates attention — but it doesn’t automatically create a successful football business.

That’s the fascinating part of this story.

If On can use Mbappé to establish credibility in football, it could potentially open another enormous category.

If the product doesn’t resonate, the deal could simply become an expensive marketing experiment.

And there is another wrinkle.

Nike isn’t standing still.

Nike is already trying to rebuild product momentum and strengthen its position after a difficult period.

So this isn’t simply:

ONON wins → NKE loses.

It’s potentially a much bigger battle over what the next generation of consumers wants from sports brands.

The traditional model was:

🏆 Famous athlete

→ huge advertising campaign

→ global distribution

→ mass-market products

The challenger model looks more like:

🔥 Strong community

→ premium product

→ cultural relevance

→ selective expansion

→ global scale

On has already demonstrated that the second model can generate substantial growth.

Now football will test whether that formula can travel beyond running and tennis.

And that’s why I think the Mbappé move matters more than one endorsement deal.

It is a test of whether a challenger can move from niche dominance to mainstream sportswear.

If On succeeds, Nike and Adidas aren’t just competing against another sneaker company.

They’re competing against a different way of building a global sports brand.

👀 Can $ONON turn Mbappé into a global football franchise — or is football still Nike and Adidas territory?