🚨 THE 5% TREASURY YIELD TEST: CAN STOCKS KEEP RALLYING?
Thursday looked like a relief rally.
The Fed hiked rates.
Oil cooled.
Treasury yields fell.
Nasdaq jumped 1.69%.
S&P 500 gained 1.14%. 
Then Friday brought a reality check.
The 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 5%, while oil remained above $100 a barrel. Stocks still finished higher, but gains were much more muted: S&P 500 +0.17% and Nasdaq +0.40%. 
That creates an interesting battle:
📈 Stocks want lower yields
Lower borrowing costs can support growth-stock valuations.
🛢️ Inflation keeps pushing the other way
Oil above $100 keeps price pressures in focus.
🏦 And the Fed isn’t done being hawkish
Markets were pricing roughly a 58% probability of another October hike by Friday. 
So Thursday’s rally may not have answered the biggest question.
It may have simply moved it forward:
Can tech stocks keep climbing if the 10-year stays around 5%?
That’s the level I’m watching.
If yields break decisively higher while oil remains elevated, investors could face a very different valuation environment.
But if yields retreat and oil continues to cool, the market may have room to keep looking through the Fed’s latest hike.
🔥 Is 5% on the 10-year just a speed bump — or the level that finally tests this rally?
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