To The Moon

Stocks to Watch Today: Nasdaq at a record, VIX under 15, and a Micron earnings wall. How I'm running my sell puts into it

Written Wednesday morning SGT, using Tuesday's US close.

Where we stand

The market has had a strong start to the week. On Monday the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.26% and posted a record closing high for the first time since June 2, while the S&P 500 gained 1.49%, just shy of its record. Tuesday was quieter. The Nasdaq gained 0.5% to close at a record 27244, while the S&P 500 finished flat and the Dow shed 185 points. (Bilyonaryo) (TRADING ECONOMICS)

Two numbers matter most for anyone selling premium.

First, volatility. Even after that rally, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 0.41% to 14.87. A VIX under 15 means option buyers are paying very little for protection. For a seller, that means thin premiums. (Yahoo Finance)

Second, rates. Last week the FOMC voted 12-0 to approve a quarter-point hike, which lifted the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, and the September dot plot showed the median FOMC member expecting an additional 25 basis point rate hike in 2026. The 10-year yield climbed about 3 basis points to 4.98% on Tuesday as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials strengthened expectations for further interest rate hikes. A tech rally running into a hiking cycle is not a calm setup, even if the VIX looks calm. (Fed Raises Rates in September, Officials Signal One More Hike in 2026 | Chase +2)

Oil is the swing factor. Brent crude settled around $99 as President Donald Trump said US officials had a "very good" meeting with Iranian envoys in New York. Good headlines on Iran pull oil down, which pulls yields down, which helps tech. A bad headline reverses all three. (Bloomberg)

Calendar (SGT times)

Tonight: Fed speakers are the main event. Confirmed Fed speeches at 10:05 and 10:20 a.m. ET fall at 10:05 PM and 10:20 PM SGT, right after the 9:30 PM open. Cintas, Paychex and General Mills report before the bell. (StrongBuyAnalytics)

Thursday (Sep 24): Xi Jinping's US visit. Trump said he will discuss artificial intelligence with Chinese President Xi Jinping on his trip to the United States with a confirmed date of September 24th. Chip export headlines could move NVDA and AMD either way. August new home sales and expected earnings from Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Costco (COST) also land that day. (ground) (Charles Schwab)

Wednesday next week (Sep 30): Micron earnings.

All week: it's the last week of the quarter. Schwab notes volatility could change this week as position shifting occurs before the end of the quarter in what's traditionally called "window dressing" season. (Charles Schwab)

The four names I'm watching

$NVDA: Jensen Huang has given the bull case new numbers. He told an audience in Scotland that Nvidia's chip sales could double next year. The stock has come back after falling below $210 two weeks ago, with NVDA now approaching $230 and moving back toward its record high above $236. Valuation has actually come down a lot. At less than 17 times expected earnings, the stock's valuation is half what it was in 2025. On China, in its current forecasts, Nvidia does not assume any sales to China. Any China approval on Thursday is extra upside that isn't in the numbers. (Jensen Huang Just Delivered Incredible News for Nvidia Stock Investors | The Motley Fool +3)

$AMD: Monday was a big day. Advanced Micro Devices closed 10% higher to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion for the first time. That is a milestone, but it is also a 10% gap up. I don't chase gaps with short puts. If the stock gives some of it back, my strikes end up near the old base instead of sitting under a spike. (The Star)

$MU: This is the most interesting one this week, and I won't be touching it. Micron is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Sept. 30. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $31.17 per share for the August quarter. There is also a live labour risk. Micron and the Taiwan Taoyuan Union failed to reach agreement at a second mediation meeting on September 21, 2026. The unions represent about 10,000 of Micron Technology's 15,000 workers at its Taoyuan and Taichung fabs. Even so, the stock was up about 5% on Tuesday. Earnings and a possible strike vote are both coming within a week. That is a coin flip, not a trade. (Worker Tensions in Taiwan Are Rising at Micron. What This Means for MU Stock. +2)

$SNDK: The momentum name everyone is talking about. It joined the S&P 100 before trading opens on September 21, 2026. Rosenblatt then initiated coverage of the memory-chip maker with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target. The stock has already gained more than 540% in 2026 and more than 1,600% over the past year. I'll explain below why I'm only watching it. (SanDisk Joins S&P 100, Index Flows and SNDK Stock Valuation +2)

Also on the tape: banks. A selloff in bank shares weighed on the Dow, with JPMorgan falling 3.4% and Bank of America dropping 3%. Keep an eye on it if yields keep climbing. (TRADING ECONOMICS)

How I run sell puts in a tape like this

I've run a systematic sell-put / Wheel strategy on US stocks for over five years. The rules have changed a lot along the way. The version I use now has one principle: every trade must pass a set of gates. If any gate fails, I don't trade. I don't get to talk myself into a "maybe."

Gate 1: Is the premium worth selling?

IV Rank must be at least 40%.

IV Percentile must be at least 45%.

Implied volatility must be at least 1.2 times historical volatility.

If options are cheap relative to their own history, I'm not getting paid enough for the risk. With the VIX near 15 after a two-day rally, this gate is the one that usually fails first on the big names. I check it live on the chain every time rather than assuming.

Gate 2: Is the trend intact?

The stock must be above its 200-day moving average. This is a hard rule. I don't sell puts on stocks in structural downtrends, however cheap they look.

Gate 3: Is there an earnings date in the way?

I don't open a position within 7 calendar days of earnings. I also don't want the expiry to straddle the report.

This is exactly why MU is off the table. Today is September 23. Earnings are September 30. That is 7 days, so MU is inside the blackout. It doesn't matter how strong the chart looks.

Gate 4: Strike selection (my "two-anchor" method)

Calculate the one standard deviation expected move for the expiry: spot × IV × √(days/365). Subtract it from spot. That is the statistical floor.

Take the nearest meaningful moving average and multiply by 0.98. That is the technical floor.

Sell at the lower of the two.

The delta must land between 0.15 and 0.25. If the chosen strike falls below 0.15, I move the strike up until the delta is at least 0.15.

Here is the math with made-up round numbers, not a live quote:

Spot is $230, IV is 35%, 35 days to expiry.

One standard deviation is 230 × 0.35 × √(35/365) ≈ $25, so the statistical floor is about $205.

If the 50-day average were $215, the technical floor would be 215 × 0.98 ≈ $211.

The lower anchor wins, so the strike is about $205.

I then confirm the delta on the real chain before placing anything.

Gate 5: Timing and size

Expiries are 30 to 45 days out. That is where time decay works well without leaving the position exposed for too long.

Core names (NVDA, AMZN) are capped at 5% of the account per position. Everything else is capped at 2%.

Sizing is where most people blow up. One NVDA $205 put secures $20,500 in cash. At a 5% cap, that is one contract per roughly $410,000 of account value. Now look at SNDK at around $1,700. One cash-secured put ties up about $170,000. At my 2% cap, I'd need an $8.5 million account to sell a single contract. That's why SNDK stays on the watch list. The sizing rule rules it out even before I get to a 1,600% run and what assignment on it would look like.

Exits: decided before I enter

A good-till-cancelled order goes in to buy the put back at 50% of the premium collected.

The stop is when the put's value reaches 2 times the premium on core names, or 2.5 times on the others.

I allow one roll at most. If a trade needs a second roll, the original thesis was wrong.

I always keep a buffer of excess liquidity, and I raise it when the VIX climbs.

What this means for today

Putting it all together:

NVDA: This is the one name I'm running through the full checklist. The trend is intact and the 30 to 45 day expiries fall before its next report, which usually comes in late November (check the confirmed date). The question is Gate 1. After a rebound toward highs with the VIX under 15, the premium may simply not be rich enough. If the IV gates fail tonight, I wait. The Xi visit on Thursday could easily bring the volatility back.

AMD: Wait for the 10% gap to settle. Its expiries 45 days out may also run into its early-November earnings, so the calendar needs checking before any strike does.

MU: Blocked by the earnings blackout. I'll look again after September 30, once the numbers and the labour situation are clear.

SNDK: Watch only. The notional size doesn't fit my rules.

Some of my best trades this year came from waiting. My NVDA $200 put for the June 20 expiry kept 100% of its premium because I sold it when fear was high and the gates were all green. Weeks like this, with record highs and low volatility, pay less. They're when discipline matters more than activity.

If you sell puts too, what's your first filter? IV, trend, or the calendar? Let me know in the comments.

This is my personal trading framework, shared for education. It is not investment advice. Options carry significant risk, including assignment and losses larger than the premium collected. Always verify live chain data before you trade.

$NVDA $AMD $MU $SNDK