To The Moon

Everyone is asking the same question:

What should I buy if interest rates stay higher for longer?

Banks? Cash? Gold? Dividend stocks?

I think that starts with the wrong question.

If I had $10,000 to invest today, I wouldn’t build my portfolio around high interest rates.

I’d build it around WHY interest rates stay high.

Because “higher for longer” sounds like one economic environment.

It isn’t.

Rates can stay high because economic growth remains stronger than expected.

They can stay high because inflation refuses to die.

They can stay high because an energy shock pushes prices higher.

And long-term bond yields can stay elevated because investors demand more compensation for inflation, fiscal risk, duration and an enormous supply of new debt.

Same headline. Different causes. Different winners.

And we’re watching that distinction play out right now.

The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 and said inflation remained elevated.

By September 29, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was hovering around a 19-year high of 5.27%, Brent crude was around $106, and markets were pricing roughly a 72% probability of another Fed hike in October.

But here’s the fascinating part.

It isn’t only oil.

Government borrowing is competing for capital while AI hyperscalers have already issued more than $200 billion of bonds this year. Meanwhile, employment, consumer spending and AI-related capital investment have remained resilient.

That’s almost the entire thesis unfolding at once.

Energy. Inflation. Growth. Debt supply. Capital demand.

All roads can lead to higher yields.

So instead of making one giant macro prediction, I’d give every dollar in my $10,000 portfolio a different job.

💵 $2,500 — SGOV | GET PAID TO WAIT

My biggest position would also be the boring one.

And that’s deliberate.

SGOV owns U.S. Treasury bills with 0–3 month maturities. Its latest 30-day SEC yield was about 3.66%, with minimal interest-rate risk compared with longer-duration bonds.

If short-term rates stay high, I continue earning income.

If rates rise further, I’m not sitting on a huge duration bet.

And if expensive money eventually breaks something?

I have dry powder.

In a market obsessed with finding the next trade, liquidity itself can be a position.

🏰 $2,000 — BRK.B | THE OPTIONALITY MACHINE

Berkshire Hathaway isn’t here because I think it’s magically immune to high rates.

It’s here because expensive capital makes having capital increasingly valuable.

At June 30, Berkshire’s insurance and other businesses held about $359.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and U.S. Treasury bills.

That creates an interesting asymmetry.

While short rates remain elevated, that liquidity earns meaningful income.

But if higher borrowing costs eventually create distressed sellers, refinancing problems or attractive valuations?

Berkshire can become the buyer.

That’s the kind of optionality I want when nobody knows exactly how “higher for longer” eventually ends.

🎰 $2,000 - CME | SELL THE ARGUMENT

This is my favourite part of the portfolio.

I don’t want to predict every Fed meeting.

I want exposure to the marketplace where everyone else hedges their predictions.

CME’s U.S. Treasury futures and options average daily volume increased 15% year-over-year in August to 11.8 million contracts.

10-year Treasury futures: +20%

2-year Treasury futures: +25%

30-year Treasury futures: +37%

CME also reported the strongest first half in its history, with Q2 producing approximately $1.7 billion of revenue and $1.2 billion of adjusted operating income.

And here’s the distinction I love:

Banks lend money.

CME sells the argument about what money will cost.

Fed uncertainty?

Hedge it.

Treasury volatility?

Hedge it.

Oil shock?

Trade it.

Currency volatility?

Trade it.

If uncertainty becomes the regime, uncertainty itself becomes a product.

🛡️ $1,500 - VTIP | WHAT IF INFLATION IS THE PROBLEM?

If persistent inflation is one reason rates stay elevated, I want some direct inflation protection.

But I don’t want to make a giant long-duration bet to get it.

VTIP owns short-term Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Vanguard’s latest figures showed an average duration of about 2.4 years and yield to maturity around 4.21%.

I’m not buying VTIP because I know exactly where inflation goes.

I’m buying it because I don’t.

There’s a difference between predicting inflation and constructing a portfolio that acknowledges I might be wrong.

🛢️ $1,500 - XLE | OWN PART OF THE PROBLEM

This is where the thesis gets interesting.

I’m not buying energy because:

“Rates high = oil stocks good.”

That’s too simple.

I’m allocating to energy because energy itself can be one of the reasons rates stay high.

We’re seeing exactly that now.

Oil around $106 is feeding inflation concerns and helping drive expectations that monetary policy may need to remain tighter.

XLE gives me exposure across the U.S. energy sector rather than forcing me to choose one producer. Exxon and Chevron currently represent roughly 23% and 18% of the fund respectively.

But there’s an important counterargument.

Oil has already surged.

A correct hedge can still become a bad investment if I chase it after everybody discovers the problem.

So XLE isn’t a prediction that oil goes straight up.

It’s insurance against energy remaining one of the forces keeping inflation, and therefore rates higher than expected.

💵 $500 - CASH | YES, ACTUAL CASH

Add everything above and you get $9,500.

I’d deliberately leave the final $500 in cash.

Why?

Because I don’t believe every dollar needs to be forced into a trade simply because somebody handed me $10,000.

Higher rates change the opportunity cost of patience.

If volatility creates a much better entry into one of these positions next week or next month, I want the ability to act.

100% allocated doesn’t have to mean 100% invested.

🧠 THE REAL PORTFOLIO IS THE SCENARIO MAP

Here’s what I’m actually buying.

If rates stay high because growth remains strong, Berkshire’s operating businesses can participate while CME benefits from active markets.

If rates stay high because inflation remains sticky, VTIP provides inflation-linked protection.

If an energy shock helps keep inflation elevated, XLE owns part of the source.

If Treasury volatility continues because markets can’t agree about inflation, growth, fiscal risk or Fed policy, CME monetises the demand for risk management.

If rates simply remain elevated without disaster, SGOV keeps paying me while I wait.

And if higher rates eventually break something?

SGOV gives me liquidity.

Berkshire gives me optionality.

Cash gives me ammunition.

None of these positions is bulletproof. Berkshire and CME can fall with equities. XLE can get smashed if oil collapses. VTIP won’t perfectly hedge every inflation shock. SGOV’s income will decline if the Fed eventually cuts.

That’s the point.

I’m not pretending I know which version of “higher for longer” we’re going to get.

I’m building around several possible reasons.

🎯 MY $10,000

$2,500 SGOV — 25%

$2,000 BRK.B — 20%

$2,000 CME — 20%

$1,500 VTIP — 15%

$1,500 XLE — 15%

$500 CASH — 5%

I wouldn’t build this portfolio around the statement:

“Interest rates will stay high.”

I’d build it around the question:

“WHY might rates stay high, @TigerObserver @TigerEvents @TigerStars and what happens if I’m wrong about the reason?”

Because perhaps the biggest mistake investors can make in a higher-for-longer world is assuming there’s only one interest rate, one cause and one trade.

SGOV earns from the price of money.

XLE hedges one reason money stays expensive.

VTIP protects against what expensive money is trying to fix.

Berkshire waits for expensive money to create opportunity.

CME gets paid while everybody argues about what happens next.

And cash lets me change my mind.

The rate isn’t the regime.

The reason behind the rate is.

🐯 If you had $10,000 today, what do you think is the REAL reason rates stay higher for longer growth, inflation, energy, fiscal pressure, capital demand… or something else?

This is my hypothetical portfolio and personal market thesis, not financial advice. Every investmeent carries risk and macro conditions can change quickly.