My prediction is around 90K jobs added in September. The labour market does not look like it is collapsing, but hiring appears to be cooling despite relatively low layoffs.
For the bonus question, I think Treasury yields move first if payrolls significantly beat expectations. A strong jobs print could quickly shift expectations towards tighter Fed policy, pushing yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Stocks, especially rate-sensitive growth and tech names, could then come under pressure as higher yields are priced in.
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