I would not call the DRAM floor from the share prices alone. The signal I want is pricing plus inventory.
Interestingly, the underlying DRAM market still looks tighter than the sell-off suggests. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise another 10–15% QoQ in Q4, while supplier inventories remain very low as capacity continues shifting towards server DRAM and HBM.
So my floor signal would be when spot prices stop weakening, contract-price expectations stabilise, and PC/mobile inventories begin falling without suppliers increasing conventional DRAM capacity aggressively. That would suggest supply discipline, rather than simply another temporary bounce.
The biggest risk is that HBM profitability encourages too much new capacity that eventually spills back into conventional DRAM. But for now, AI is actually removing capacity from ordinary DRAM, not simply creating HBM demand.
For Micron specifically, I would watch gross-margin guidance and conventional DRAM ASPs more closely than the stock's percentage decline. The shares can bottom before DRAM does, but improving pricing expectations are what would make that bottom convincing.
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- poppii·16:33That 10-15% Q4 contract lift could still prove light if server DRAM stays this tight. I care more about Micron's margin guide than the stock tape hereLikeReport