AI Trading Stories: MU, NVDA, NBIS& GOOGL
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some ai trading ideas with you!
1
Elon Musk says $Micron Technology(MU)$ has been “reasonable” on future memory pricing while others have been “extortionate” and that customers won’t forget how they were treated.
Micron could turn that goodwill into longer contracts and more market share when supply eventually loosens.
2
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ trades at 8.1x committed ARR versus 5.1x for $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ and 2.5x for $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ even though CoreWeave has ~$35B committed compared with Nebius at ~$10B and IREN at ~$4B.
Essentially the difference is Nebius has only ~250 MW active against 3.5 GW contracted with ~75% of that future capacity on owned sites meaning most of its potential growth is still ahead.
Nebius also generates~$13M in revenue per MW versus ~$11M for CoreWeave as inference software expands helping explain the premium alongside CoreWeave’s heavier debt.
3
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ just used Gemini 4 Argon to teach Apptronik’s Apollo humanoid how to play cornhole from a video with the robot sinking seven straight shots in the real world.
If robots can learn physical skills from ordinary videos then Google’s massive YouTube library could become one of its biggest advantages in Physical AI without needing to build the robots itself.
4
J.P. Morgan sees humanoid robot shipments reaching ~1.8M by 2030 with China accounting for roughly half as adoption starts in factories and warehouses where tasks are repetitive and predictable.
At an assumed $30K per robot that could mean ~$52B in annual hardware sales before software and services which is why I think we're still in very early stages of Physical AI.
5
Couldn’t help adding more $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ this week after the latest AI FUD especially with the company forecasted to grow revenue ~98% annually through 2030 and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ CTO highlighting Nebius’s early access to Vera Rubin.
And when even $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ CEO Zuckerberg says older H100s are worth more today because compute remains scarce, I look at Nebius’s estimated ~250 MW active against 3.5 GW contracted and see years of growth still ahead.
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Micron shares were down 4.4% at $873.70 in premarket trading. A slide that began at the start of the week on news that China's CXMT was developing a new memory chip has been compounded by fears about the wider AI trade.
South Korean memory companies Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were even harder hit, dropping 9.5% and 11%, respectively, in local trading on Thursday.
But the worries are overblown, according to UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois. He notes that CXMT's so-called 4F square design (4F2) is likely still just a sample product this year and it would take substantial development to maximize efficiency and performance.
"Memory stocks are now down 19% from the more recent peak in September, almost back to the July trough. We think this should push memory companies to get going on shareholder returns," Gaudois wrote in a research note Thursday.
Micron is currently restricted from carrying out big share buybacks or special dividends due to conditions of the Chips Act funding it received from the U.S. government back in 2024. But that limit should be lifted from Dec. 9 and the company recently approved an increase in its total share-repurchase authorization to more than $35 billion.
The long-term concern is that rising Chinese supply will undercut the skyhigh prices Micron and its peers can currently charge for memory. But even if CXMT can bring advanced chips to the market, it's unclear whether U.S. manufacturers would get government approval to buy CXMT-produced memory and, in any case, the Chinese company gives priority to domestic companies.