To The Moon

The market: hotter producer prices moved money out of technology and into value sectors

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ rose 0.28 per cent to US$771.79 on Thursday, while $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 0.13 per cent to US$728.00. September PPI increased 1.3 per cent from the previous month, above the market's 0.6 per cent expectation and faster than August's 0.4 per cent rise. Wholesale inflation reached 6.3 per cent from a year earlier, with energy prices the main driver. Renewed upstream price pressure reduced expectations for rate cuts and highly valued technology shares.

The broad market did not fall with technology because money moved towards financials, consumer companies and other non-technology sectors, giving the Dow its best performance in more than a month. This was not a broad recovery in risk appetite; leadership inside the indices changed. Greater breadth can reduce the market's dependence on a small group of AI leaders, but higher upstream costs can also compress margins across more industries.

TSMC posted record profit while Nvidia and AMD fell with AI hardware

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ fell 1.80 per cent to US$422.25, Nvidia fell 1.84 per cent to US$217.23, AMD fell 1.50 per cent to US$562.23 and Intel fell 2.80 per cent to US$95.37. Investors continued to reduce AI hardware exposure after TSMC beat expectations, showing that the question has moved beyond whether orders are strong enough to whether the expansion cycle can produce sufficient cash returns.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ reported quarterly revenue of TWD1.49 trillion, above the TWD1.47 trillion expected, and net profit of TWD763.1 billion, ahead of the TWD746.34 billion estimate. Its operating margin of 58.7 per cent also exceeded the top of company guidance at 58 per cent. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion, volume production at 2 nanometres and continued advanced-node demand all support growth. The pressure sits on the other side: the company expects capital expenditure from 2026 to 2028 to be substantially higher than during the previous three years. The results proved that demand remains strong, but did not answer when customer financing and new investment will produce an adequate return.

CoreWeave shares rebounded while the cost of insuring its debt set a record

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ rose 5.94 per cent to US$69.69 and Nebius rose 1.29 per cent to US$188.41. Both neocloud shares rebounded after the previous session's sharp decline, but the cost of insuring CoreWeave's debt remained at a record. The equity market was trading an oversold rebound while the credit market continued to raise the price of default risk, producing opposite signals.

Demand for GPU compute from model companies has not disappeared, and stable contract delivery can support a recovery in the shares. A neocloud still has to finance equipment and data-centre expansion continuously, however, and high funding costs consume cash alongside depreciation. A one-day rebound asks whether the selling went too far. Credit pricing asks whether long-term capital still wants the risk, and that does not improve automatically after a single positive session.

Rocket Lab delayed Neutron's first launch and fell for a seventh session

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ fell 6.64 per cent to US$55.25 after the company delayed Neutron's first launch until 2027, extending the decline to a seventh consecutive session. Neutron is an important product in Rocket Lab's attempt to enter the larger launch market. The delay pushes potential revenue further out and lengthens the development-spending period.

ARK added shares during the pullback, while Rocket Lab continued to highlight its record on Mars missions, showing that the market has not rejected its existing launch and space-systems capability. What changed was the price of time. The longer Neutron takes to enter service, the longer investors must wait to test whether it can compete with SpaceX on launch efficiency. A revised launch milestone and cost control will matter more for valuation than short-term buying.

iPhone Duo pre-orders begin on Friday, putting Apple's upgrade case to the test

$Apple(AAPL)$ fell 0.28 per cent to US$342.00. Pre-orders for the company's first foldable phone, iPhone Duo, begin on Friday, giving the market its first test of whether the device can create a new reason to upgrade. The foldable design can lift the average price of premium products and place Apple Intelligence, hardware design and ecosystem services in the same upgrade cycle.

A product launch is not proof of demand. Pricing, durability and application support still require consumer validation, and a single change in form may not reverse slower upgrades in a mature market. Pre-orders will show whether early adopters are willing to pay. Retention and usage data will determine whether this becomes a durable product cycle.

This is personal analysis and not investment advice.

💬 【Talking Point】

Which operating result would best show that this cycle of AI capital spending is earning an adequate return?

💰 【Bounty】

Drop your view and reasoning in the comments and there are Tiger Coins in it for you! 🎁

🔔 Better shared than saved — tag a friend and split the coins!