To The Moon

The value of Trump accounts auto-investing in the S&P 500 keeps looking better.

Semiconductors crashed, dragging Korea's KOSPI down 17% for the month. SOXX fell 9.5% for the month. But as of Friday premarket, the S&P 500 is up 1.2% this month. The chain selling that usually hits U.S. stocks after a sector crash didn't happen this time.

To keep the index balanced, consumer and healthcare sectors are being pushed to the limit. The market makers are really working overtime to herd money where they want it.

The popular story that Democrats sweeping the House would crack down on AI sounds reasonable. But guess which party Nancy Pelosi — Congress's stock-trading star — belongs to. She bought NVDA and BE stock and calls.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

This week's biggest order was the TLT 85 call opened Wednesday: $TLT 20261130 85.0 CALL$ , with 170k contracts opened.

The single trade price of $0.17 isn't a big deal by itself. Buyers care about total dollar size; sellers care about contract count. But opening 170k contracts at once is very interesting. It ranks in this year's top three openings.

So while we can't say TLT will definitely hit 85, it's very likely it won't fall. That means Treasury yields have really peaked.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

Speaking of which, the best semiconductor stock to buy the dip right now is Nvidia.

Nvidia is a semiconductor heavyweight, but it's also a $5 trillion S&P 500 heavyweight. So Nvidia staying stable helps the S&P 500 stay stable. Shows how important it is to know which team you're on.

For sell puts, you can target the mid-year low of 190. But I think 200 is already the floor, and 215 is not out of the question: $NVDA 20261023 210.0 PUT$ .

Besides Nvidia, Qualcomm also looks like it's clearly bottoming: $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ .

$Intel(INTC)$

The bull/bear fight in Intel is intense. The main thing is big sell call and buy call orders showing up at the same time.

At this point, I obviously want as many sell calls as possible. They work as an objective sign of shorts building up.

In theory, now is a sell put level. You could sell the 85 strike, or near the current price: $INTC 20261023 85.0 PUT$. Or wait two more days to see if it stabilizes.

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$

CRWV has also fallen to its short-term target. A clear sign is a big buy put order rolling: the Nov 20 60 put rolled to the Dec 18 35 put.

20k 90 calls opened as buys: $CRWV 20270416 90.0 CALL$ . Big sell put strikes are priced between 50 and 40.

I remember CRWV crashed last year from something similar. Looks like October is not a good time to get into semiconductors.

$SpaceX(SPCX)$

Under SPCX, we should also connect Dell: $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ .

As a well-known Trump account sponsor, Dell chose to donate cash. Earlier this week I wondered why Dell's stock wasn't falling. Turns out it just fell later, and it dropped right before Treasury yields crashed. On Wednesday Dell fell 11%, and on the same day TLT opened 170k bullish calls.

If the only reason was market makers dumping on retail at the top to donate to the accounts, then now is a good buy-the-dip chance. Consider selling puts: $DELL 20261120 340.0 PUT$ .

What does Dell have to do with SPCX? The SpaceX president also promised to donate to Trump accounts, but she promised to donate stock, not cash! That's very thoughtful toward retail shareholders.

The big SPCX sell put order is $SPCX 20261030 135.0 PUT$.