Data Outlook: Schedule of Major Economic Indicators (Eastern Time)
$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
With no major data releases such as the nonfarm payrolls or CPI next week, market attention will focus on the strength of the U.S. manufacturing recovery and inflation expectations surveys.
October 19 (Monday)
10:00 AM: U.S. October NAHB Housing Market Index (Previous: 32, Forecast: 31) . The key focus will be on whether confidence among real estate developers has deteriorated further amid high interest rates.
October 20 (Tuesday)
8:30 AM: U.S. September Total Annualized Housing Starts.
10:00 AM: U.S. September Total Building Permits and Pending Home Sales.
October 22 (Thursday)
8:30 AM: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 17. If this figure rises significantly more than expected, it will serve as a catalyst to provide short-term support for gold prices.
10:00 AM: U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) for September (month-over-month).
October 23 (Friday) — Key Focus Day
9:45 AM: U.S. October S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI Preliminary Readings. The market expects a potential cooling of robustness due to the impact of tightening policies; if the data is unexpectedly strong (above the 50-point threshold and showing a rebound), it will be positive for the U.S. dollar and exert direct downward pressure on gold prices.
10:00 AM: U.S. October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading and 1- and 5-year inflation expectations. As a hedge against inflation, the gold market is highly sensitive to whether inflation expectations are anchored.
II. News Outlook: The Fed’s Blackout Period and Market Psychology
The Fed Enters a Full “Blackout Period”
Duration: From midnight on Saturday, October 17 (EDT) through October 29.
Impact: This means the market will not hear any public remarks from Fed officials (including Chair Wash) next week. Prior to this, the strong PPI/CPI data released this week had reignited market concerns about aggressive rate hikes, while officials’ mixed hawkish and dovish statements caused bullish sentiment to fluctuate.
Key Considerations: Without official guidance, markets will have to rely on scattered data next week to speculate whether the Fed will choose to “stand pat” or deliver an “unexpected rate hike” on October 28 (the eve of the election). This uncertainty often leads to reduced market liquidity and heightened volatility.
Beware of continued profit-taking by longs: With no major verbal catalysts from the news front and gold closing lower after hitting a high this past Friday, the market is likely to continue profit-taking by longs early next week—following the absence of a “geopolitical premium”—and may tend toward a technical retest of previous lows.
Friday (October 23) is a pivotal turning point: Friday morning’s preliminary PMI figures and inflation expectations are next week’s most impactful macroeconomic data. If inflation expectations rise, gold may come under pressure once again.
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