To The Moon

Key Message: Semiconductor stress. Nasdaq hedging. Defensive positioning.

The biggest takeaway from October 22’s ETF activity is that US market risk was being aggressively repriced, particularly in semiconductors and technology stocks. Leveraged bearish ETFs surged while bullish counterparts fell sharply, and long-duration Treasury ETF TLT gained.

But here’s the key distinction: high trading volume does not automatically mean money is flowing into an ETF. To understand market sentiment, investors need to look at price changes, dollar turnover and actual fund flows together.

🔍 3 Signals Worth Watching

1️⃣ Semiconductors: Risk appetite takes a hit

• $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ (3× Semiconductor Bull): −20.47%

• $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ (3× Semiconductor Bear): +20.68%

• $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ dollar turnover: approximately US$15.63B

• $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ dollar turnover: approximately US$4.96B

Both ETFs ranked among the most actively traded products in the snapshot.

The takeaway? Semiconductor exposure was a major focus of trading, with sharp price moves and activity in both bullish and bearish strategies.

However, SOXL’s higher turnover does not prove that bullish investors outnumbered bearish investors. Trading volume includes buyers and sellers, hedging and intraday speculation.

2️⃣ Nasdaq: Hedging demand comes into focus

• $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ (Nasdaq-100): −2.86%

• $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ (3× Nasdaq-100 Bull): −8.53%

• $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ (3× Nasdaq-100 Bear): +8.55%

• $ProShares UltraShort QQQ(QID)$ (2× Nasdaq-100 Bear): +5.75%

The combination of falling bullish ETFs and rising inverse ETFs is consistent with heightened caution and active bearish positioning.

For investors holding US technology stocks or Nasdaq-linked ETFs, the key question is whether this is a short-term correction or the beginning of a more sustained repricing of technology valuations.

Remember: leveraged ETFs reset daily, and their longer-term returns can differ significantly from the simple multiple of an index’s cumulative return.

3️⃣ US Treasuries: A potential defensive signal

• $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF): +1.87%

• Dollar turnover: approximately US$5.35B

TLT’s advance is consistent with defensive positioning, particularly when accompanied by falling Treasury yields.

For investors, US Treasuries can offer diversification, but long-duration bond ETFs remain sensitive to interest-rate expectations. Currency movements also matter when measuring returns in SGD.

💰 Volume vs. Turnover vs. Price: What Matters Most?

A useful extra metric is turnover relative to its 20-day average. An ETF trading at three times its usual dollar turnover during a sharp sell-off may signal unusually intense activity.

But even then, high turnover alone cannot confirm net inflows or outflows. ETF creations, redemptions and changes in shares outstanding provide stronger evidence of fund-level capital flows.

🇸🇬 What Should Investors Watch Next?

Rather than reacting to one day of extreme ETF moves, monitor three things:

• Technology earnings and AI spending: Are earnings expectations keeping pace with valuations?

• US Treasury yields and Fed expectations: Are rate movements reinforcing or easing pressure on growth stocks?

• ETF flows and market breadth: Is selling concentrated in a few high-growth sectors, or spreading across the broader market?

For investors using US-listed ETFs, also consider USD/SGD movements, trading costs and the risks of leveraged products before making portfolio decisions.

💬 Your Take: What Comes Next?

After October 22’s sharp moves, which scenario do you think is more likely?

• A. 📉 More downside — semiconductor and AI valuations remain under pressure.

• B. 🔄 A short-term correction — selling creates opportunities to buy quality technology stocks.

• C. 🛡️ Rotation to defensives — investors favour bonds and less volatile assets.

• D. 🤔 Wait for confirmation — earnings, Treasury yields and fund flows need to provide clearer signals.

Comment A, B, C or D below — and tell us which ETF or sector you’re watching most closely.

Data source: ETF market snapshot supplied for October 22, 2026. The screenshot displays the top 15 ETFs by volume, rather than a complete top-20 list. Figures are indicative of the displayed data and are not a complete measure of market-wide capital flows. This post is for educational purposes only, not investment advice.