To The Moon

For

Alibaba (BABA)

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options expiring 2026-10-30 , the current positioning suggests a conditional pinning zone around $102–$103 , rather than $105.

BABA closed at $100.24 on 2026-10-28. The live max-pain calculation is $103 , not $105— 2.75% above spot. The $105 strike is nearby, but has a higher aggregate option payout than $103.

The $98 put wall is a meaningful near-term downside pivot: it sits 2.23% below spot and carries the largest put gamma exposure. If BABA holds above it, dealer hedging around large put positions can help dampen declines and keep price rotating back into the $100–$103 area.

The relevant upside gamma barrier is $102 , with zero gamma at $101.80 —only 1.56% above spot. A sustained move above roughly $102 could shift hedging dynamics toward more stabilising, range-bound flows, making $102–$103 a plausible expiry magnet.

However, aggregate net GEX is negative at the current price. That means a break below $98 may not behave like a gentle support test: dealer hedging can amplify the move lower as puts gain delta. Conversely, a sharp upside catalyst can push BABA through the pin zone rather than hold it there.

Practical read through Friday: absent company or macro news, the options structure is most consistent with choppy trade between $98 and $103 , with $102–$103 the more likely “gravity” area. $105 is better viewed as a secondary upside strike, not the primary max-pain level in the latest chain. The chain’s implied move is about $4.72 , implying an approximate $95.52–$104.96 range; this places $105 at the upper edge of what options currently price.

The main invalidation risk is a news-driven repricing—particularly China-policy, earnings-related, or broader risk-off moves—which can overwhelm expiry hedging. Also, max pain and walls describe positioning, not a reliable price forecast; traders can close or roll positions before expiry.

Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.