[Earnings Recap] Google Sinks 10%, Microsoft Rallies. Why?
Google and Microsoft are spending billions to compete in AI, but Wall Street delivered two very different verdicts.
Alphabet plunged more than 10% after hours, despite Google Cloud revenue doubling. Microsoft, meanwhile, rallied as Azure growth accelerated and cash flow beat expectations. Vertiv surged nearly 17% on booming data-center demand, while ServiceNow tumbled about 18% despite growing AI bookings. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Vertiv Holdings LLC(VRT)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Down more than 10% after hours
Alphabet owns Google Search, YouTube, Gemini and Google Cloud.
Third-quarter revenue rose 25% to $127.58 billion, slightly below the $128.2 billion consensus. Reported EPS came in at $2.12, weighed down by an $8.7 billion investment-related loss.Google Cloud was the standout. Revenue surged 103% to $30.71 billion, while operating profit reached roughly $11.1 billion. Gemini also hit one billion users.
But the spending bill was enormous. Capital expenditures reached $51.4 billion, pushing quarterly free cash flow to negative $9.07 billion. Alphabet expects AI investment to increase significantly again in 2027.
The selloff reflects growing concerns about how quickly the company can turn its massive AI investments into sustainable cash flow, particularly as its core search business faces changing user behavior.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Shares rallied after earnings
Microsoft operates Azure, Microsoft 365, Windows and a growing portfolio of enterprise AI services.
Fiscal first-quarter revenue climbed 19% to $92.28 billion, beating estimates near $90.6 billion. Adjusted EPS of $4.89 topped the $4.72 consensus.
Azure revenue jumped 48% to $33.17 billion, while Microsoft's commercial remaining performance obligations reached $677 billion, up 73%. For the December quarter, management expects Azure growth of 49%–50% in constant currency.
Microsoft also generated $18.6 billion in free cash flow, despite spending $45.2 billion on capital expenditures.Shares initially gained more than 5% after the release, reflecting investor confidence in Azure's momentum, enterprise demand and the company's ability to fund its AI expansion.
$Vertiv Holdings LLC(VRT)$ Up nearly 17%
Vertiv supplies power and cooling systems for data centers.
Third-quarter revenue soared 61% to $4.31 billion, beating estimates of $3.75 billion. Adjusted EPS reached $2.21, well ahead of the $1.82 consensus. Organic orders more than doubled, and management raised its full-year revenue guidance to $14.45 billion–$14.85 billion.
Shares jumped approximately 16.5%, as demand for AI data-center infrastructure continued to translate into strong orders and higher earnings.
$ServiceNow(NOW)$ Down about 18% after hours
ServiceNow provides enterprise software that automates IT, customer service and business workflows.
Third-quarter revenue increased 20.5% to $4.11 billion, slightly ahead of expectations. Adjusted EPS of $1.00, however, missed the $1.02 consensus.
The company raised its 2026 AI annual contract value target to $1.7 billion, but investors were concerned about slower expected growth in current remaining performance obligations and how quickly AI contracts would translate into subscription revenue.
Shares fell roughly 18% after hours, underscoring the high expectations already priced into enterprise AI stocks.
💬 Discussion
Google Cloud revenue doubled, yet Alphabet shares fell more than 10% after earnings. Would you buy the dip in GOOGL, or wait for a better entry?
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A. Buy the dip — Google Cloud and Gemini still have plenty of room to grow.
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B. Wait and see — AI spending is getting expensive.
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C. Prefer Microsoft — Azure's growth and cash flow look more convincing.
What's your move?
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这轮财报最值得思考的是:**为什么谷歌云增长103%,股价却大跌,而微软Azure增长48%,反而受到市场欢迎?**
我认为答案不在增长速度,而在于**AI投资回报的确定性**。
谷歌云业务确实亮眼,但514亿美元的季度资本开支、负90.7亿美元的自由现金流,让投资者开始担心:未来AI收入能否覆盖持续扩张的基础设施成本?
微软同样大规模投入AI,但仍创造186亿美元自由现金流,加上企业订单和Azure增长强劲,市场自然愿意给予更高的信任。
不过,谷歌也有自己的优势:搜索、YouTube、Gemini、自研TPU和云计算生态。如果AI搜索成功商业化,当前投入未来可能转化为更强的竞争壁垒。
我尤其关注VRT和NOW的反差。VRT订单和利润率同步改善,说明数据中心建设正在兑现为业绩;NOW虽然AI合同增长,但收入转化速度仍未完全满足市场预期。
**这说明AI投资正在进入新阶段:市场不再只奖励增长故事,而是开始奖励能够兑现现金流的公司。**
我的策略是暂时不追谷歌的第一波反弹,重点观察下一季度自由现金流、搜索广告增速和云业务利润率。
**短期我更认可微软的盈利确定性,长期则不会低估谷歌的AI潜力。真正的抄底机会,不是股价跌了10%,而是市场悲观预期超过了基本面实际恶化的程度。** 🐯