To The Moon

The Fed has paused rate hikes, putting the next inflation release in focus.

Early Thursday morning Singapore time, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, pausing further tightening after September’s hike. However, two officials voted for another increase, highlighting differences over the policy outlook.

Rising energy prices have added to inflation concerns. US CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, with price pressures extending beyond energy to some goods and services.

At 8:30pm tonight, the US will release September PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) data—one of the Fed’s most closely watched inflation measures. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, will be a key gauge of underlying price pressures.

LSEG data shows the market expects annual core PCE inflation to rise to 3.1%, from 3.0%. Deutsche Bank forecasts 3.1%–3.2%, citing broadly stronger-than-expected CPI components.

Markets are already anticipating higher inflation. The key tonight is whether the data surprises—and how markets reassess the interest-rate outlook.

From the Data to Your Trading View: How Could You Position Before the Open?

A cooler or hotter reading does not guarantee that stocks will rise or fall. Compare the figures with expectations, then consider the market reaction, individual stock movements and your existing positions.

Bullish: Buy Calls or Consider Cash-Secured Puts

If inflation comes in below expectations, concerns about further rate hikes could ease, potentially supporting stocks.

• Buy Call: For investors bullish on a particular stock. All else being equal, a rising share price generally benefits a call’s value, but you could lose the entire premium paid.

• Cash-Secured Put: For investors willing to buy shares at the strike price, with enough cash set aside. You receive a premium but take on the obligation to buy the shares if assigned, along with the risk of substantial losses if the share price falls sharply.

Bearish: Buy Puts; Consider Covered Calls if You Expect Limited Upside

If inflation exceeds expectations, concerns about further tightening could increase, putting pressure on stocks.

• Buy Put: Express a bearish view on a stock or help protect an existing holding against downside. You pay a premium, and the protection depends on the strike price, expiry and number of contracts.

• Covered Call: For investors who own enough shares, expect limited upside and are willing to sell at the strike price. Selling a call generates premium income but caps potential upside and does not eliminate losses if the shares fall.

A bullish or bearish market view does not mean every stock will move in the same direction. Company earnings and stock-specific news still matter.

The Data Arrives Before the Open. You Can Act Before It Too.

Tiger Trade supports extended-hours options trading on 24 popular US stocks.

During US daylight saving time, the pre-market session runs from 7:30pm to 9:25pm Singapore time, covering tonight’s 8:30pm PCE release. You can observe the market’s response before deciding whether to adjust your positions.

Place an order in three steps:

1. Open an eligible options contract and select Buy or Sell.

2. Select Limit Order, then enter your limit price and quantity.

3. Check your Time in Force, select GTH+RTH+Curb under Trading Hours, then review and submit.

Cash-secured puts and covered calls require sufficient cash or shares, as applicable, together with the relevant trading permissions and margin requirements.

Getting the Direction Right Does Not Remove the Risks

Implied volatility may fall after the release, while time decay can also reduce an option’s value. Buying an option may therefore result in a loss even if your directional view is correct. Option sellers must also consider assignment obligations and funding needs.

During pre-market trading, watch liquidity, market depth and bid-ask spreads. Limit orders are not guaranteed to fill.

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