To The Moon

If I had to choose one ETF to invest in regularly over the long term, I would choose $Vanguard Total World Stock ETF(VT)$ .

Before explaining why, let’s define DCA.

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy where you invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, such as weekly or monthly, regardless of whether the market is rising or falling.

For example, investing US$100 into an ETF every month means you buy more shares when the price falls and fewer shares when the price rises. Over time, your purchases are made at different prices rather than relying on a single entry point.

DCA does not guarantee a profit or prevent losses, but it can help investors build a consistent investing habit without constantly trying to time the market.

1. Why VT would be my pick

My reason is simple: I would rather invest in the long-term growth of global businesses than depend entirely on one country, one sector or a handful of popular stocks.

The US market has delivered impressive returns over the years, particularly through its technology giants. However, market leadership can change. The companies dominating today may not be the ones leading ten years from now, and different regions can outperform at different stages of the economic cycle.

VT provides exposure to thousands of companies across developed and emerging markets. Its holdings span sectors such as technology, financials, healthcare, consumer goods and industrials.

Instead of trying to identify the next Nvidia or predict which sector will outperform, VT allows investors to participate in a broad range of global businesses through a single ETF.

It still has substantial exposure to the US, so it can benefit when American companies perform well. Its international holdings also provide exposure to markets outside the US.

For me, the appeal is not that VT will always outperform the S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100. It is that I would not need to make a single-country bet to participate in global equity market growth.

2. Why DCA instead of trying to time the market?

One of the biggest challenges in investing is deciding when to buy.

When markets rally, prices can feel too expensive. When markets fall, uncertainty makes it tempting to wait for an even bigger decline.

The problem is that nobody consistently knows where the market will go next.

DCA offers a straightforward alternative: invest a set amount at regular intervals instead of making every purchase dependent on short-term market predictions.

For example, suppose I invest US$100 every month:

• If VT’s price falls, my US$100 buys more shares.

• If VT’s price rises, my US$100 buys fewer shares.

• Over time, my purchase price reflects the different prices I paid.

This approach helps make investing more systematic and reduces the pressure to find the perfect entry point.

However, DCA does not eliminate market risk. If global markets decline significantly, VT can fall too. And if the market rises steadily, investing a lump sum earlier may produce better returns than spreading the investment over time.

3. What if US technology stocks keep outperforming?

This is the trade-off I would need to accept.

If technology stocks continue to outperform global equities, VT may deliver lower returns than a concentrated technology ETF. Its international exposure can also weigh on performance when US stocks lead the market.

But I would not automatically view that as a reason to abandon the strategy.

The purpose of choosing VT would be to avoid making my long-term investment outcome depend too heavily on predicting the next winning sector or country.

Diversification does not mean every holding performs equally well. It means accepting that some parts of the portfolio may lag while maintaining exposure to a broader range of opportunities.

I would rather understand that trade-off from the beginning than switch strategies every time another market becomes fashionable.

4. How long would I DCA, and when would I make adjustments?

My approach would be to invest regularly over many years, provided the ETF continued to fit my financial goals and circumstances.

I would review my investment periodically, but I would not change the strategy simply because the market had a difficult month or another ETF had delivered better recent returns.

I would reconsider my approach if my investment horizon changed, I needed the money sooner than expected, or my portfolio no longer matched my risk tolerance.

I would also pay attention to fees, tax implications and currency exposure. For investors outside the US, including New Zealand investors, the tax treatment of overseas ETFs can be important when choosing a fund and investment platform.

5. My advice to someone starting DCA

Start with a strategy you can realistically maintain.

You do not need to own every popular ETF or constantly search for the next big opportunity. Understand what your chosen fund holds, how much risk you are accepting and whether you can continue investing during a downturn.

Most importantly, do not confuse a simple strategy with a risk-free one. VT offers broad global diversification, but it remains an equity investment and can experience substantial declines.

My central idea is that I would rather spend less time predicting the next market leader and more time building a consistent long-term investing habit.

VT would be my choice for that approach because it provides exposure to global businesses through a single ETF.

For discussion purposes only. Not financial advice.