[Earnings Recap] Amazon Falls 7%, Intel Plunges 23%. What's Wrong?
Thursday’s earnings showed that rapid AI growth no longer guarantees a positive stock reaction.
Amazon reported AWS’s fastest expansion in nearly five years, but its shares fell as capital spending drove free cash flow deeply negative. Intel’s quarterly profit beat was overwhelmed by a weak forecast. Sandisk also slipped despite strong earnings and an 8-for-1 stock split announcement. Reddit plunged on slowing search traffic, while Eli Lilly rallied as demand for its weight-loss drugs continued to surge. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Reddit(RDDT)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Eli Lilly(LLY)$
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ dropped 7.3% after hours
Amazon operates a global e-commerce platform, digital advertising business and the AWS cloud division.
Third-quarter sales rose 12% to $201.9 billion, slightly missing the $202.1 billion consensus. EPS of $1.89 also came in below the $1.96 estimate, although operating margin reached a company record of 13.9%.
AWS revenue jumped 39.3% to $46 billion, its fastest growth in nearly five years. Amazon expects AWS revenue to grow more than 40% in both 2027 and 2028.
The company’s trailing 12-month free cash flow, however, swung from a $14.8 billion inflow to a $42.4 billion outflow as AI infrastructure investment surged. Amazon still expects roughly $220 billion in 2026 cash capital spending.
Shares dropped nearly 7.3% after hours. Investors focused on the cash burn and a holiday-quarter revenue forecast whose midpoint fell slightly short of Wall Street’s projection.
$Intel(INTC)$ plunged roughly 23% after hours
Intel makes processors for PCs and data centers and is investing heavily in its contract chip-manufacturing business.
Third-quarter revenue increased 21% to $16.5 billion, roughly matching expectations. Adjusted EPS of 52 cents beat the 40-cent consensus, helped by Intel’s strongest data-center revenue growth in 15 years.
Its PC-chip business was weaker, with sales falling 5% to $8.1 billion. Management expects soft PC demand, partly linked to higher memory costs, to continue through at least the first half of 2027.
Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, well below the $17.07 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS guidance of 25 cents also missed the 43-cent estimate. A recent explosion at its Israeli factory is expected to reduce revenue by about $300 million in each of the next two quarters.
Shares plunged roughly 23% after hours. After more than doubling in 2026, the stock had little room for a major forecast miss or another manufacturing setback.
$Reddit(RDDT)$ fell as much as 18.8% after hours
Reddit is a discussion-based social platform that earns most of its revenue from advertising.
Third-quarter revenue climbed 53% to $895 million, beating the $874.9 million estimate. EPS of $1.40 topped the $1.33 consensus, while free cash flow nearly doubled to $363 million.
Daily active unique users rose 12% to 130.3 million, but referrals from search engines deteriorated late in the quarter. Search traffic declined by more than one million referrals per week on average in October.
Reddit projected fourth-quarter revenue of $1 billion to $1.03 billion, below Wall Street’s $1.05 billion forecast at the midpoint. Shares fell as much as 18% after hours as investors questioned whether slowing search traffic would translate into weaker user growth.
$Eli Lilly(LLY)$ gained 6.6%
Eli Lilly makes diabetes and obesity treatments including Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Third-quarter revenue surged 39% to $24.4 billion, beating the $22.61 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS of $7.48 was well ahead of the $6.26 estimate.
Mounjaro generated $10.72 billion in sales, while Zepbound contributed $5.35 billion. Lilly’s discounted Medicare pilot has already added more than 500,000 weight-loss drug customers.
Management raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $91 billion to $92 billion from $85 billion to $87 billion. It trimmed adjusted EPS guidance to $35–$36 because of acquisition-related research charges.
The stock gained 6.63% and touched a record high. Investors looked past the accounting charges and focused on continued volume growth, wider insurance access and Lilly’s leading position in obesity treatment.
$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ fell approximately 3.8% after hours
Sandisk makes flash memory and solid-state storage products used in smartphones, PCs and AI data centers.
Fiscal first-quarter revenue surged 378% to $11.03 billion, beating Wall Street's roughly $10.72 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS reached $49.51, above the $46.67 consensus. Data-center revenue climbed to $4.8 billion, up 61% from the previous quarter.
Management forecast second-quarter revenue of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion and adjusted EPS of $55 to $57, both ahead of expectations.
Sandisk also announced an 8-for-1 stock split, effective November 19, and repurchased $5 billion worth of shares during the quarter.
Despite the strong results, shares fell approximately 3.8% in late after-hours trading, following a 5.3% decline during the regular session.
The stock had already gained roughly 460% this year, leaving expectations exceptionally high. Investors appeared to be taking profits even as AI-driven storage demand continued to strengthen.
💬 Discussion
Amazon, Intel and Sandisk all fell after earnings. Which stock would you buy on the dip — or would you stay on the sidelines?
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A. AMZN — AWS growth remains strong.
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B. INTC — The selloff may be overdone.
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C. SNDK — AI storage demand is still booming.
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D. None — I'd wait for a better entry.
What's your pick?
After the latest earnings selloff, do you think the AI rally is running out of steam, or is this just a healthy pullback?
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The latest earnings season reveals an important shift: Wall Street is no longer rewarding AI growth blindly. It wants proof that massive investments can generate sustainable profits and free cash flow.
Amazon is a perfect example. AWS revenue surged 39.3%, but trailing 12-month free cash flow turned negative by $42.4 billion. Investors are questioning the cost of maintaining that growth.
Intel faces execution and guidance challenges. Sandisk has impressive earnings, but after a 460% rally, even excellent results may not justify further upside.
I wouldn't rush to buy these dips. The AI boom isn't necessarily ending; expectations may simply have outrun financial returns.
My strategy: Protect capital, wait for valuations to reset, and buy companies whose earnings growth catches up with their stock prices. A falling stock isn't automatically a bargain.
@Tiger_Earnings [微笑]
Strong Q results (revenue +378% YoY, solid guidance) driven by tight NAND supply and AI demand, yet sold off with the broader tech/AI pullback. Overreaction creates the better dip-buy vs. AMZN’s misses/capex worries or INTC’s weak PC guidance and sharp AH plunge. High-beta memory pure-play with analyst support.
一、5家公司,谁比较值得关注?
股票 我的看法 主要原因
AMZN - AWS增长强劲,但AI投资太大
INTC - 业绩有改善,但未来指引疲弱
SNDK - AI存储需求强,但股价涨幅过大
RDDT - 广告收入增长,但搜索流量放缓
LLY - 减肥药需求强劲,但估值要留意
二、为什么我选择亚马逊?
1. AWS收入增长39.3%,说明AI云服务需求强劲。
2. 电商、广告、云计算三大业务,收入来源比较多元。
3. AWS有机会成为未来长期利润增长的重要动力。
但最大问题是:自由现金流转负,代表公司投入大量资金建设AI基础设施。
如果未来AI收入不能覆盖投资成本,就会影响股东回报。
三、其他股票为什么暂时不选?
INTC: 股价下跌不代表便宜,必须先证明盈利能够恢复。
SNDK: AI存储需求很好,但今年已经上涨约460%,要小心估值过高。
RDDT: 用户和广告收入增长不错,但搜索流量下降值得关注。
LLY: 业绩强劲,但股价创历史新高,不适合盲目追高。
四、AI牛市结束了吗?
我的看法:目前不能说AI牛市结束,更可能是市场开始严格检查AI公司的投资回报。
以前市场只要看到AI增长就兴奋。
现在投资者开始问:
投资AI花了多少钱?
能带来多少收入?
最后能留下多少利润?
自由现金流有没有改善?
五、给新手的建议
不要看到股票下跌就马上买入。
记住:
好公司 + 合理价格 + 持续盈利 = 值得长期研究的投资。
如果是我,会优先观察AMZN,但等估值和现金流情况更清楚才考虑买入。
这轮财报给我的最大启示是:华尔街并没有放弃AI,而是开始从“奖励资本开支”转向“检验投资回报”。
AMZN、INTC和SNDK虽然都在下跌,但背后的逻辑完全不同。
AMZN的问题是现金流。 AWS增长接近40%,说明云计算和AI需求依然强劲,但巨额资本开支使自由现金流承压。关键在于未来AWS利润增长能否覆盖新增投资和折旧成本。我认为这是三家公司中最值得持续跟踪的长期机会。
INTC的问题是执行能力。 EPS超预期固然不错,但PC业务疲软、下一季度指引低于预期,加上制造业务的不确定性,意味着它的复苏仍需要更多证据。跌23%不代表风险已经释放完毕。
SNDK的问题是预期过高。 存储价格上涨和数据中心需求确实有利于盈利,但股价此前大幅上涨,市场可能早已提前计入未来数个季度的利好。即使财报超预期,也可能出现获利了结。
我会重点观察三个信号:AWS的经营利润与自由现金流、英特尔代工业务的实际进展,以及NAND价格上涨能否持续转化为利润。
礼来的上涨也说明,市场仍愿意奖励增长,只是更加重视盈利兑现和未来指引。
我的判断是:AI行情并未结束,但正在进入更严格的业绩筛选阶段。 未来真正的赢家,不一定是AI资本开支最多的企业,而是能够持续提高投入资本回报率、创造自由现金流的企业。
所以如果只能选一只,我选AMZN;如果没有合适的估值和企稳信号,我宁愿耐心等待,也不会为了抄底而抄底。🐯
AWS growing around 39% suggests the underlying AI/cloud demand story remains strong. My concern is the other side of the equation: enormous infrastructure spending and deteriorating free cash flow. I would want evidence that AWS growth can eventually outrun the capex required to support it.
I am less tempted by INTC because its weak forward guidance points to an operating problem rather than simply market disappointment. SNDK has excellent AI-storage momentum, but after such a huge run this year, strong results may already be heavily priced in.
I do not think the AI rally is necessarily running out of steam. The market is becoming more selective. Earlier, AI revenue growth itself was enough. Now investors increasingly want AI growth + margins + cash conversion.
That is probably healthy. The next phase should separate companies actually monetising AI investment from those merely spending heavily on it.