$NVTS up +12.5% over the last 48 hours after Q3 beat — the "Navitas 2.0" pivot into AI Data Centers is actually happening

章丹丹
11-05 17:40

Anyone who held $Navitas Semiconductor Corp(NVTS)$ through that brutal October bleed from $12 down to $7.91 finally got some validation over the last two days. The stock jumped nearly 8% on Tuesday into the close ($8.56), beat Q3 numbers Tuesday night, and popped as high as $9.55 on Wednesday morning before settling around $8.93 (+4.3% today) on big volume.

For the last year, the bear case on Navitas was that they were stuck selling low-margin GaN chips for cheap phone chargers. Look at what CEO Chris Allexandre just laid out on the Q3 call:

  1. Bye-bye phone chargers, hello AI data centers: By the end of Q4, low-end mobile/consumer revenue will be basically 0% of their business, while AI Data Centers and Grid Infrastructure will pass 40% of total sales.

  2. High-power is ramping fast: Q3 revenue grew 33% sequentially (+38% YoY) to $14.0M, high-power revenue jumped over 50% in a single quarter, and they guided Q4 up another 14% QoQ to $15.5M–$16.5M (which means full-year high-power sales are up 125%).

  3. Massive cash cushion: They are sitting on $531.5 million in cash (up from $237M at the end of last year), so dilution/bankruptcy fears are off the table.

How I’m trading the chart this week:

  • Current price: ~$8.93

  • Key support that just held: $8.52 – $8.60 (it dipped right to Tuesday's $8.56 close around 11 AM today and buyers immediately stepped in)

  • Breakout trigger: Clearing Wednesday’s morning high at $9.56

  • My stop: Daily close below $7.90 (Monday’s low)

  • Targets: $9.55 retest first, then $10.50–$11.30 if semis stay strong.

Did you guys take profits on the morning pop to $9.55, or holding for a run back over $10?

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Comment（5）

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  • Daniel Stretton
    ·11-05 19:44
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    Looking at the baseline data, I'll take a boring covered yield over a story about future growth every single time. Flows have been positive for 5 straight months, and that tends to persist longer than people expect.
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    • Ay Ling Yong: 
      From a practical standpoint, I lost money on the last thing that was described this way, so I'm sitting out. The last time this setup appeared, the drawdown was 1.0% before it stabilized.
      11-05 19:47
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  • Liping Tee
    ·11-05 19:45
    Looking at the baseline data, valuation isn't a timing tool, but it is a return promise. This one promises very little. At 12.1% above the trend line, the margin of safety is basically gone. Raised cash, not because I know the future but because I don't.
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  • Tsuen Seng Koh
    ·11-05 19:46
    There's a reasonable allocation case here for someone with a long horizon and stable income.
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  • Ala account
    ·11-05 21:39
    Will it ever reach &10.00 soon
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