To The Moon

English Version:

Hello everyone. Today we will review the latest technical developments in the Nasdaq 100, WTI crude oil, gold and the Hang Seng Index. Market performance remains divergent this week. The Nasdaq and Hang Seng are still correcting, WTI remains under pressure after a downside breakdown, while gold has rebounded from lower levels. Policy changes following the US midterm elections, the interest rate environment and energy supply risks remain key market drivers. We will combine fundamentals with technical structures to identify key support, resistance and the conditions required to confirm the next move.

Hang Seng Index: Monthly Correction Continues, Watch Support Near 23,000

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Fundamentally, Hong Kong’s third quarter GDP grew 5.2% from a year earlier, while stronger exports and domestic demand provided support for the Hang Seng Index. However, mainland China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October, while new orders also remained below 50, showing that the demand recovery remains under pressure.

On the monthly chart, the Hang Seng Index stood at 23,278, with the monthly candle down 0.45%. The rebound from the 2024 low encountered resistance above 27,000. The latest monthly candle has retreated sharply and fallen below the 24,331.8 horizontal level, indicating that the medium term rebound is undergoing a correction. Prices are now approaching the marked support zone, although stable buying support has yet to be confirmed.

The first downside area lies between the two blue horizontal levels at 23,174.3 and 22,770.1, creating a support zone near 23,000. Stabilization in this area followed by successful retests and higher lows would provide stronger evidence of an interim bottom. A monthly close below 22,770 followed by a failed recovery would signal a breakdown of this support zone and increase medium term correction risk. The current month has yet to close, so approaching support does not confirm that the level is effective.

Initial resistance lies at 24,331.8, represented by the yellow horizontal line. Reclaiming and holding above this level would indicate that the correction is beginning to repair. The next resistance levels would be the red line at 26,298.4 and the upper blue level at 27,176.1. Rejection near 24,332 would remain consistent with a corrective rebound. Holding the lower support zone, reclaiming 24,332 and improving the pattern of highs and lows would reopen the path toward further recovery.

Nasdaq 100: Weekly Support Triggers a Rebound, While the Bearish Structure Still Requires Repair

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Starting with fundamentals, the Nasdaq is benefiting from stronger sentiment following the US midterm elections. The index rebounded 0.91%, although it remains down 0.59% over the past five days and 7.71% over the past month.

Technically, the Nasdaq stood at 28,281.88. The daily candle shown fell 0.82%, with a high of 28,542.63 and a low of 28,055.25. Since retreating from its October high, rebound peaks have moved progressively lower and the index has fallen below its 55 day EMA, indicating continued near term weakness. Prices are now approaching the 240 day EMA. Recent candles have formed lower wicks, showing some buying support at lower levels, although a confirmed reversal structure has yet to emerge.

The first downside area is near 28,000 and the 240 day EMA. Holding this zone and gradually forming higher short term lows could produce an interim recovery. A daily close below the 240 day EMA followed by a failed rebound would shift attention toward the marked 27,000 level. This area is close to the late July correction low and represents important support for the medium term structure. A confirmed break below 27,000 could extend the decline toward 26,170.

Initial resistance lies near 28,500, close to the daily high shown in the chart. A recovery above this level would shift attention toward the 55 day EMA near 29,000. Another rejection in this area would remain consistent with a corrective rebound within the recent decline. Reclaiming the 55 day EMA and breaking through the recent rebound highs near 29,500 to 30,000 would provide stronger evidence that the pattern of lower highs is improving.

The current structure is best described as bearish in the short term, with medium term support now being tested. Both moving averages still slope broadly higher over the year, so the latest decline alone is insufficient to confirm that the annual uptrend has ended. Investors should watch whether the 28,000 area and 240 day EMA hold and whether the index can reclaim the 29,000 area.

WTI Crude Oil: Supply Risks Support the Longer Term Outlook, but the Daily Breakdown Remains Bearish

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Fundamentally, continued conflict in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine threatens energy infrastructure and transportation. The IEA expects global oil supply to decline by 5.8 million barrels per day this year, while inventories have also fallen sharply. However, demand is expected to decline by 2.6 million barrels per day.

On the daily chart, WTI stood at $86.81. The candle shown fell 1.41%, with a high of $88.43 and a low of $86.72. The descending trendline from the April high and the rising trendline from the July low formed a converging triangle. Prices previously traded between these lines, but the latest move has broken clearly below the rising support line. This indicates that the previous consolidation structure has broken lower and short term selling pressure is dominant.

The first downside area is $86 to $87. Stabilization in this zone followed by higher short term lows could produce an interim rebound. Continued weakness would shift attention toward the previous consolidation area near $82. A further breakdown would expose the $74 to $75 zone, followed by support near the July low around $68.

Initial resistance lies between $88 and $90. A recovery above this zone would shift attention toward the former rising trendline near $95 to $98, which may now act as resistance. Returning inside the previous triangle would help ease the current weakness. The next levels would then be the psychological $100 mark and the descending trendline near $102 to $104.

Supply disruption risks provide potential upside support, although prices have already broken lower technically. The key question is whether a rebound can reclaim the former rising trendline. Rejection would suggest that the correction remains intact. A sustained recovery accompanied by an improving pattern of highs and lows would increase the probability that the breakdown was false.

Gold: Rebound From Lower Levels, Watch for a Break Above $4,150

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Fundamentally, Democratic control of both chambers of Congress may restrict Trump’s ability to advance tax cuts and large spending plans. Weaker expectations for fiscal expansion could lower long term yields and provide support for gold.

Technically, gold has formed progressively lower rebound highs since retreating from its late August peak, creating the descending pink channel shown in the chart. Prices recently recovered after testing the $3,870 area, reclaimed the $4,015.37 level and showed signs of breaking above the channel. The daily candle shown closed at $4,115.20, up 1.35%, with a high of $4,146.92. This indicates stronger short term buying.

The first resistance level is near $4,150, close to the daily high of $4,146.92. A confirmed breakout followed by a successful retest could extend the rebound toward the purple resistance zone above $4,200. Repeated upper wicks in that zone or a rapid reversal after a breakout would indicate continued selling pressure. Holding above resistance and forming higher highs would provide stronger support for a continued recovery.

The key downside level is near $4,015. Prices previously consolidated around this point several times and have now recovered above it after the latest decline, making it an important test of rebound durability. A successful retest followed by a short term low above the recent bottom would confirm stronger support. A fall back below $4,015 would suggest that the rebound is losing momentum and shift attention toward $3,890 and the $3,870.32 low. A further break below the recent low would damage the current recovery structure.

Two scenarios should be monitored. Holding $4,015 and breaking above $4,150 would indicate that the short term recovery remains intact, although buying support must still be assessed near the $4,250 resistance area. Rejection followed by a return to the descending channel and a break below $4,015 would show that bearish pressure remains unresolved. The current setup is best described as a rebound from lower levels attempting to repair the declining structure. A sustained sequence of higher highs and higher lows is required to confirm a stronger daily trend.

Investors should monitor whether the Nasdaq and Hang Seng hold their key support zones, whether WTI reclaims its breakdown area and whether gold can remain above $4,015 and break through $4,150. Interest rates, the US dollar, corporate earnings, mainland economic data and actual oil supply conditions also remain important. Some markets are rebounding, although trend repair still requires confirmation from price structure. Maintain trading discipline, adjust views as data and key levels change and avoid relying on previous expectations after support fails.