To The Moon

Hey Tigers 🐯!

A strong earnings report can still leave investors debating what comes next. That is the setup for $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ after its third-quarter results.

In his November 4, 2026 report, US Tiger Securities analyst Team maintained a BUY rating and $115 price target. His case depends heavily on a further advance in Bitcoin supporting demand for USDC, while Circle develops payments and blockchain infrastructure businesses.

But the near-term picture is more demanding: USDC circulation has retreated, distribution economics are tightening, and the analyst has cut fourth-quarter and 2027 earnings estimates.

The question for investors: how much of the earnings strength can Circle repeat?

📊 1. The Beat Was Substantial—Its Composition Matters

Circle reported $865 million in revenue and $317 million in adjusted EBITDA. These exceeded consensus by 11% and 54%, respectively, and Tiger’s estimates by 4% and 29%.

GAAP net income reached $226 million, with diluted EPS of $0.84.

Two factors stand out. Other revenue totaled $207 million, including $182 million from recognition of ARC token presale revenue. Reserve income was approximately $658 million, broadly matching consensus. Distribution and transaction costs of approximately $409 million also came in below expectations.

📌 Key Insight: The headline beat combines strength in reported revenue with favorable costs. The ARC presale contribution should be assessed separately from the recurring economics of holding and distributing USDC.

The first table retains the report’s actual-versus-estimate comparison, including expense lines and margins.

The next table shows the full comparison with Tiger and FactSet consensus. Percentage differences follow the original report’s rounding, so they may differ from calculations using the displayed rounded numbers.

💵 2. USDC Balances Are the Next Test

USDC circulation declined from $73.9 billion at September-end to $70.7 billion on November 3, alongside renewed Bitcoin weakness.

Tiger interprets the decline primarily as a crypto-cycle development. The analyst expects another Bitcoin advance to support activity in altcoins, decentralized finance, collateral and yield strategies, potentially increasing USDC demand.

That remains an investment assumption. A rising Bitcoin price would be more persuasive for Circle’s earnings outlook if it were accompanied by sustained growth in USDC balances.

The operating relationship to watch is straightforward: circulating balances, the reserve return rate, and the portion of reserve economics Circle retains all matter. Growth in one variable can be offset by pressure in another.

🤝 3. Binance Distribution Comes With a Cost

Management attributed the expected fourth-quarter decline in net reserve margin mainly to a full quarter under the renewed Binance agreement.

Tiger forecasts net reserve margin of 33.6%, compared with 37.8% in 3Q. The report frames these concessions as part of securing distribution and competing for market share, while highlighting large exchanges’ bargaining power.

For investors, the test is whether distribution produces enough additional balances to compensate for the lower retained margin.

A metric distinction matters here: the report separately forecasts 4Q RLDC margin of 36.5%, down from 52.4% in 3Q. RLDC margin and net reserve margin use different economics and denominators; they should not be treated as interchangeable measures.

🌐 4. CPN and ARC Broaden the Opportunity

Circle Payments Network’s annualized payment volume increased from approximately $41 billion at September-end to $58 billion in late October.

Tiger sees the network as a possible contributor to non-reserve revenue in 2027, while acknowledging that monetization is currently modest. Annualized payment volume measures activity; it is not Circle’s revenue.

ARC’s recurring business is at an earlier stage. The report identifies potential revenue from fees, staking and ecosystem activity as real-world assets and tokenized financial markets develop.

The analytical distinction is between revenue already recognized from the token presale and future recurring revenue that still needs to develop. Investors should track adoption and monetization separately.

✂️ 5. A Strong Quarter, Followed by Lower Forecasts

Tiger reduced its 4Q revenue estimate by 4% to $743 million and adjusted EBITDA estimate by 29% to $111 million. Projected diluted EPS falls from $0.16 to $0.06.

The revised model includes higher distribution and transaction costs, substantially lower other revenue, and weaker profitability. The cuts extend into 1Q27: revenue falls to $826 million and adjusted EBITDA to $169 million, reductions of 7% and 15%.

For 2026, projected revenue remains near $3.00 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increases 4% to $723 million following the strong third quarter.

For 2027, Tiger reduces revenue 4% to $3.74 billion and adjusted EBITDA 10% to $746 million, reflecting lower expected USDC balances and higher distribution costs. Estimated net income declines to $318 million, with diluted EPS of $1.15.

The revised annual EBITDA margin falls from 24.1% in 2026 to 19.9% in 2027. In this model, revenue growth does not automatically produce stronger margins.

🎯 6. What Supports the $115 Target?

Tiger’s sum-of-the-parts valuation assigns approximately $19.8 billion to the reserve-income business and $8.2 billion to payments, infrastructure and tokenization businesses, with approximately $2.7 billion in net cash and 268 million diluted shares.

Against the report’s November 4 reference price of $76.88, the $115 target implies approximately 49.6% upside, calculated as $115 ÷ $76.88 − 1. This is a comparison with the analyst’s target, not a predicted return or today’s share price.

The rounded valuation components imply approximately $114.55 per share, consistent with a rounded $115 target.

For context, the report lists a market capitalization of $20.587 billion, enterprise value of $20.192 billion, a $49.90–$140.00 52-week trading range and 10.11 million shares of average daily volume over 30 days. All are historical report snapshots.

⚠️ 7. What Could Change the Investment Case?

The report identifies several risks: a prolonged crypto downturn; USDC losing market share; competition from Open USD, banks and other stablecoin issuers; weaker distribution economics; faster rate cuts; and slower execution or monetization at ARC and CPN.

Editorial analysis: A stronger share-price case would require evidence that USDC demand is recovering and that the resulting earnings outweigh distribution pressure. Persistent balance weakness or further earnings downgrades would challenge that case. These are conditional interpretations, not additional analyst price targets.

The current evidence supports a distinction: Circle delivered a strong reported quarter, while its forward earnings outlook became more cautious. Investors need to assess both.

🐯 Your Take: Would you buy CRCL ahead of a USDC recovery—or wait for circulation and retained margins to improve?

📚 Data Appendix: Revenue Build and Income Statement

The appendix preserves the numeric rows from the report’s revenue build and income statement across 2024A–2028E, including quarterly periods. Wide tables are split vertically into readable image panels. USD amounts are in thousands unless the row states millions; EPS, percentages and basis-point changes retain their stated units. Share-count rows are in thousands. A dash represents an empty source cell, not zero.

These are the report’s figures, not independently updated company guidance. Source inconsistencies are retained rather than silently corrected—for example, 2024 diluted EPS appears as $0.30 even though the displayed net income and diluted share count would imply a different amount.

Source: US Tiger Securities Research, Bo Pei, CFA, November 4, 2026, “Circle Internet Group, Inc.” Company reports and FactSet are the underlying sources identified in the research. All analyst views, forecasts and valuation assumptions are attributed to that report. Editorial observations and the target-upside calculation are identified separately. This article summarizes the investment discussion and factual tables; analyst certification, rating definitions and legal disclosures remain in the original report.

For discussion and education only. Dollar figures are U.S. dollars. The nearly 3% decline is Reuters’ November 2 after-hours reporting snapshot, not a final session return. Company guidance and editorial scenarios are forward-looking; actual outcomes may differ.