To The Moon

Hey Tigers! 🐯

Singapore’s Straits Times Index rose 1.5% to 5,258.59 on November 10, with $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ leading the index at +5.5%. Then came the shipbuilder’s update: 87 vessels and US$6.98 billion in new orders. The catch? The update arrived at 5:06 p.m. SGT, after the session that produced the rally.

My take: $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ has the clearest industrial catalyst in this batch. UOB has the clearest test of whether a weak earnings reaction can reverse. One needs to turn its order book into profitable deliveries. The other needs a better margin outlook.

1 | $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$’s order book is full. Can the shares hold the rally?

The US$6.98 billion in orders booked through October was about 55% above the US$4.5 billion full-year target. The US$26.3 billion backlog extends to 2030, and the company has delivered 47 of the 58 ships targeted for 2026. The new orders include large LNG dual-fuel container ships.

The price check: Yangzijiang closed at S$4.59 on November 10 before the update. At 11:59 a.m. SGT on November 11, it was at S$4.55, down 0.87% from that close. I’m watching S$4.59 as the pre-announcement rally close and S$4.35 as the prior session’s close. Holding above S$4.59 alongside credible delivery and margin progress would strengthen the case for follow-through. A move back toward S$4.35 would give up most of the November 10 gain.

2 | $UOB(U11.SI)$ profit surged. Why did the shares fall 5%?

$UOB(U11.SI)$ earned S$1.25 billion in Q3, up from S$443 million a year earlier when elevated allowances weighed on profit. The latest result was 15% lower quarter on quarter and below the S$1.38 billion Bloomberg survey estimate. Management also expects full-year net interest margin to come in below its previous 1.75%–1.80% guidance. The stock closed 5.0% lower at S$38.44 on November 4.

$DBS(D05.SI)$ went the other way on its own reporting day. Q3 profit fell 5% to S$2.81 billion as market trading income weakened, but wealth assets under management reached S$544 billion. Shares closed 0.6% higher at S$71.20 on November 5. $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ reported S$2.04 billion, up 3% year on year and down 8% quarter on quarter, as weaker investment performance at Great Eastern weighed on the group. OCBC fell 0.7% to S$27.73 on November 6, while the STI fell 2.2%.

Across the three banks, SGX put combined Q3 net interest income at S$8.302 billion, up 2.0% quarter on quarter. Combined non-interest income fell 18.5%, with trading, investments, insurance and one-off divestment income accounting for much of the decline. For the next set of results, I’m watching UOB’s funding costs, DBS’s wealth fees and OCBC’s ability to sustain banking profit as insurance investment income fluctuates.

3 | $Keppel(BN4.SI)$’s fees grew. Wilmar’s core profit fell.

$Keppel(BN4.SI)$ reported that Q3 net profit on its New Keppel basis grew nearly 15% year on year. Nine-month asset-management fees rose 18% to S$354 million, and shares closed 1.1% higher at S$10.24 on October 29. The next checkpoint is the roughly S$600 million of asset monetisation the company was targeting for completion by year-end.

$Wilmar Intl(F34.SI)$ swung to a US$281.0 million Q3 profit from a US$347.7 million loss a year earlier. Core profit fell 25.2% to US$267.3 million as food products and feed and industrial products weakened. Shares closed 4.9% lower at S$3.11 in the next session, when news also broke of an Indonesian police investigation into plantation fires. Stabilising core profit is the next earnings test.

4 | Chip watch: $UMS(558.SI)$ profit doubled

$UMS(558.SI)$, an iEdge Singapore Next 50 constituent, reported Q3 revenue of S$95.4 million (+61%) and net profit of S$21.1 million, about twice the year-ago level. Semiconductor sales rose 65%. UMS closed at S$1.75 (+3.6%) on November 10 before the release and traded at S$1.85 (+5.7%) at 9:29 a.m. SGT the next day. Watch the Malaysian production ramp and whether stronger sales flow through to cash generation. Its S$0.01 interim dividend is scheduled for payment on December 18.

5 | What I’m watching next

These are conditional editorial scenarios. The price references are observed closes.

On the calendar: Singapore Airlines (C6L) and SATS (S58) scheduled their half-year results for November 11 after the close. Singtel (Z74) scheduled its half-year results for November 13 before the open, and ST Engineering (S63) scheduled a Q3 market update for the same date.

Which would you watch first, Tigers: Yangzijiang’s delivery progress, UOB’s margins or Wilmar’s core earnings? 🐯

Risk disclosure: For general information only; not investment advice. Earnings-session and weekly returns use different dates, exclude dividends and do not isolate causality. Earlier releases are identified explicitly. Company guidance and editorial scenarios are conditional. Interest rates, policy, export controls, financing, supply and execution can affect earnings and share prices.