EURUSD Technical Analysis: Near-Term Rally Expected to Stall as Bearish Trend Resumes
Short-term Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the EURUSD pair ended wave 4 at the 1.127 level. Consequently, the currency pair has resumed its downward trajectory within wave 5. This current decline is actively unfolding as a classic five-wave Elliott Wave impulse structure.
Moving down from the wave 4 peak, initial selling pressure drove wave (i) to a trough at 1.113. A subsequent corrective bounce in wave (ii) stalled and terminated at 1.125. Following that brief recovery, sellers regained control and pushed the pair lower in wave (iii) toward 1.1066. The market then experienced a minor corrective rally in wave (iv) that ended cleanly at 1.11. Currently, the final leg lower in wave (v) is unfolding and should reach completion soon. Once this fifth sub-wave finishes, it will simultaneously complete wave ((i)) of a higher degree.
Following the completion of wave ((i)), the pair should initiate a larger corrective rally within wave ((ii)). This upward phase will retrace the broader downward cycle that began from the November 4, 2026 high. Typically, such a corrective advance unfolds in a three-swing or seven-swing sequence before sellers re-enter the market. As long as the key invalidation pivot at the 1.127 high remains intact, traders should expect this near-term rally to fail and yield further downside.
EUR/USD 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart
EURUSD Elliott Wave Video
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