To The Moon

The market is sending some interesting signals. Bearish sentiment is elevated, but individual stocks are showing very different technical setups.

Here's what matters across four charts:

1️⃣ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ — Is a market bottom approaching?

When AAII bearish sentiment rises above 50%, a market bottom often follows. This pattern has appeared even during major selloffs, including the COVID crash.

But it's not a guaranteed signal. In some cases, the market continued falling for more than a month after bearish sentiment crossed that threshold, as it did during the 2022 bear market.

The key question: Are we in another bear market now?

Seasonality suggests we may not be. Still, sentiment alone isn't enough to call a bottom. I'll be watching price action for confirmation.

2️⃣ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ — Consolidation would be normal

A period of consolidation wouldn't be surprising here.

The oscillator is in overbought territory, while price action remains choppy and bearish formations are developing.

That doesn't necessarily mean the larger trend has reversed, but it does suggest the stock may need more time to digest its recent move before attempting another leg higher.

3️⃣ $Meta Platforms(META)$ — A promising recovery setup

$META is showing signs of improvement after reclaiming both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages.

That recovery gives the chart a more constructive look and puts the stock in a promising position to build on its rebound.

The next thing to watch is whether it can hold those moving averages as support.

4️⃣ $Shopify(SHOP)$ — $143 is the line to watch

The bounce thesis remains intact as long as $SHOP stays above $143.

That level is the key support for this setup. A sustained hold keeps the recovery scenario alive, while a break below it would weaken the bullish case.