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钱富人
2023-03-19

Credit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis

雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The Wor

Credit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis

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The top officials of the U.S. government and CEOs of major U.S. banks interviewed have gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others from Wall Street described dramatic 24/7 negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment when he realized that a Lehman bankruptcy could bring down the global financial system.Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin asked this question again and again to those reunited by this documentary. They recalled the nightmare they faced ten years ago and shared weal and woe with the world's financial destiny.The main character of this article is Warren Buffett.When banks began to go bankrupt in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for help, hoping that he would provide financial support in a pinch. He later referred to this incident as \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\".In the interview, Buffett gave some details of the crisis process, the interlocking impact on regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One's own considerations have been talked about, and the handling of human nature is also very interesting.He said, \"Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.”\"Crisis always comes at some point,But I'm not worried about the crisis because I manage my behavior properly.”This documentary was launched in 2018, ten years after the crisis. Such a just right time distance makes Buffett's retrospection and thinking more meaningful in the present.Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Opposite shore<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>, spreading investors' concerns about the stability of the European and American banking systems.At this time, it will be very enlightening for us to look back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight given to decision-making information, and the consistent investment principles he holds.This translation by Eason is very pleasant to read. I hope it will be beneficial for everyone to open the book.\"This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.\"SOLKIN:Going back to 2008 and looking at the big picture, what do you think caused the 2008 crisis.Buffett:The numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that people think that housing will only go up and not go down, and the housing market is at $2 trillion. It's a very huge asset class.People used it as money (through asset securitization), but then people found that it didn't go all the way up.They borrowed money through real estate, which affected this incident from beginning to end in this rope.The people at the top of the rope are busy issuing mortgages on real estate they know they don't need to hold, and they can immediately pack them and sell them to investors as far away as Norway.Some people refinance through these loans, and whether the monthly payment of the mortgage lender is too high or whether they are misstating their income doesn't seem to have any impact on them.The people who refinanced them were also involved.Essentially, there is a huge speculation in real estate. Of the 75 million American home buyers, 50 million participated in the mortgage business, and only 25 million avoided the impact. 50 million loan households get houses through leverage, and many people depend on them to survive, while their asset prices collapse.This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.They believe (real estate prices only go up but not down), and when people believe something ridiculous, such things will happen.SOLKIN:In early 2008, some hedge funds holding subprime loans collapsed. Were you worried at that time? Do you remember your mood at that time?Buffett:I'm not worried. Because I always assume that (if) I participate in the American economy all my life, its value will rise sharply over time, but at the same time, it will be accompanied by some stumbling.Our economic system dictates that we will have some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, and I don't predict the business (future direction), I just try to adapt to everything that happens.In the summer of 2008, I did get a call from a leading Wall Street company trying to sell us many, many, many billions of Freddie Mac stock. I knew something might have gone wrong.\"I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the front page, and I knew that we wouldn't invest in it (Lehman).\"SOLKIN:I don't know if you remember, after Bear Stearns fell and before Freddie and Fannie, you received a phone call from Richard Dick Fuld, chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers, who told you that his stock was being attacked by short sellers.Buffett:Yes, I highly doubt anyone saying that to me. I like people who sell short Berkshire, how can short sellers hurt you?SOLKIN:Forde said that you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion yuan. Were you interested at that time?Buffett:I'm interested in hearing him out.SOLKIN:How did you respond to him?Buffett:I told him, give me your thoughts, first tell me your offer, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could get Henry \"Hank\" Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) to call me about the issue.Hank called me at 67 a.m. on Friday morning, and he offered some totally substandard endorsements. He probably hoped that I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch was too hard. I think he also realized it was wrong.Anyway, I opened Lehman's 10K report that afternoon and it was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we wouldn't invest in it.My office still keeps this note.SOLKIN:What do you see?Buffett:I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances and scenarios that were already happening on Wall Street at the time, and probably happening to them.\"We're probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.\"SOLKIN:Now we come to \"that weekend\" of September 12, 2008. What you are getting now is not a phone call from Lehman Brothers but a phone call from AIG asking if you would like to invest $10 billion in it.Buffett:I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you guys, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point in time, I refused.Soon after, they returned to our view. I said at the time, I can't solve this problem. We have to pay about 27 billion dollars. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we will go because of this.What was true then was that they passed me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday night telling me they were in crisis.SOLKIN:What do you think it means that they call Warren Buffett?Buffett:This means, they know that if we see something, our actions can be very quick. We are probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.And for this case, they know that I am very interested in the insurance business. They may be out of business in a few days, so they are also very desperate.\"If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and was aware of everything that was going on, I think whether I had the ability to step in or not, I would choose to step in.\"SOLKIN:When many people look back on this crisis, they still regard the fall of Lehman Brothers that weekend as the crucial moment of the crisis, and debate whether the US government should intervene at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>And the Wall Street Journal both wrote op-eds praising (the U.S. government didn't intervene).Buffett:Yeah, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street guys fuck off, we've had enough of them\".A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whatever they want to do, they can do it. This may change somewhat under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during the Obama presidency.)SOLKIN:So you think if the Fed wanted to step in, they could have stepped in at the time.Buffett:If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and saw everything that was going on in the United States, I think I would choose to step in whether I was able to step in or not.The Supreme Court may have arrested me as a criminal, but I think from the perspective of national interest, that's what I have to do in that role.SOLKIN:So you think the Fed made a mistake?Buffett:I don't know.Because they have to promise too much to the public. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink drastically, and various personal problems.However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be rescued and the people will be protected.SOLKIN:At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Fed, and others in need of a bailout.Buffett:HUGE. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then chairman of the New York Fed) and George Bush were arguing fiercely, but the American people wouldn't buy it.\"I think the silent hero in this whole affair is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, who bought Merrill Lynch. \"SOLKIN:Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG was bailed out. But then, people began to worry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.Buffett:When Lehman went bankrupt, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell like dominoes one after another, and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to take into account the reaction from Congress.Congress didn't realize the magnitude of the problem, Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but his ability to realize the seriousness of the problem made me give him a high grade.SOLKIN:Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?Buffett:I remember that phone call. Haha, when Goldman comes to you for money, you'll remember it.SOLKIN:What were your thoughts at the time?Buffett:I think there are reliable people in power in the Treasury Department, reliable people in power in the Federal Reserve, and the president is reliable, except Congress worries me. I think the Golden Meeting is intact as long as the market is not completely shut down.I think the silent hero of the whole affair is that Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.I think he got some advice to buy Merrill Lynch for $30 (Note: In fact, Bank of America paid $30 billion to buy Merrill Lynch for about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.At that time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said that we would pay $30 (a share) to buy it, which was a fair price.If not, Merrill Lynch could be at only 30 cents on Monday.SOLKIN:You think this is a big mistake?Buffett:For the financial system as a whole, this is not a mistake. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after its acquisition, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced its acquisition on Sunday, it might have been another Lehman Brothers.At the Lehman moment, if they decided to take the money to bail out Lehman, they would have to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on their own, and the whole thing would be different.\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"SOLKIN:Looking back at that history, are there some things you felt you should have done but didn't do? What investments are not reached?Buffett:I can look back on any week and find something like this.If we could have waited an extra 4-5 months at that time, Berkshire could have bought a lot of things cheaper. Shares were much cheaper in March 2009 than they were in October 2008.I wrote an op-ed in the New York Times in late October 2008, and I was right in the long run, but it was much cheaper after 4-5 months.SOLKIN:Do you think, this system has taken us so much forward, but still takes us back to the Great Depression, where are these red lines?Buffett:If the crisis is not properly handled, it may last longer. But there is always a way out of the crisis, and we have come out of the crisis.At one point, the government must step up and step in to solve the crisis. There is only one force in the whole world that can make people reduce leverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they don't do so for some reason, the crisis will come.SOLKIN:For the public, the new generation, are there any lessons they can learn from this crisis?Buffett:No, no. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was set up.In the nineteenth century, there were all kinds of panic in our country.Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.Moreover, this is not affected by people's IQ. Even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear. At that time, they chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.The power of fear is enormous.SOLKIN:Do you see any connections, implications between the crisis of ten years ago and the politics, governments and institutions of the present?Buffett:Yes, people's long-term memory. The same was true in 1929, which took a long time. When they feel extreme fear, something will be left and engraved in their minds.They want to know who causes their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.When buying a house, falsely report a little income on the loan application form, think that house prices will continue to rise, so refinance accordingly, etc. Who will be blamed for these things?SOLKIN:So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? It's also a political issue.Buffett:A lot of people do very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always people doing fake things. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market, because you can easily make money from it. You can make a new loan in Bakersfield, California and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, and the value of one security contract is based on another contract.I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to look at 300,000 pages of material to understand primary securities and subordinate securities based on it and so on. Moreover, for quite some time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this way.Crisis will happen here.\"Crisis will always come at some point, but I'm not worried about it. Because I manage my behavior properly.\"SOLKIN:Are you worried about another crisis coming?Buffett:Crisis always comes at some point, but I'm not worried about it.SOLKIN:Why?Buffett because I manage my behavior properly, even if another crisis comes, Berkshire will be very healthy。SOLKIN:What are you worried about at the moment?Buffett:Rising asset prices attract people into the market who completely don't understand it. People are interested in it because of asset appreciation, but they don't really know it themselves.When you think your neighbor, who is much dumber than you, has become rich because of rising asset prices, and you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?It's just so contagious.This is a part of the capital system that will always be there. But you ask me which class of assets is in this state right now, and I haven't observed it yet.SOLKIN:Are we better positioned to deal with another crisis now?Buffett:This is an interesting question. I've never read the 2,000 + pages of the Dodd-Frank Act in its entirety, I've only read the synopsis.I have a view, and my view may be wrong. But I (do) think that this bill may hinder the Fed from dealing with the crisis quickly and cooperatively.It was a terrible mistake, I would say. We need a Fed with powerful power!You may not like it, and it may do something you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion residential market and more than 75 million home buyers, you need a force capable of reducing leverage.SOLKIN:During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at that time?Buffett:I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\" on CNBC at that time. I had never used such a metaphor before. I felt that I had never experienced anything like this before.Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis at that time was even worse than it was in 1929.On September 29, 1929, the Dow plunged after hitting a high of 381. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones has returned to 250 points. It has not caused so many people to panic on such a widespread scale.It hit Wall Street, but the scope of Wall Street at that time was far less than it is now, which may be caused by 401K and many other things. Dwelling will reach everyone.</body></html>","source":"lsy1679202057054","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse crisis causes panic, see how Buffett goes back and thinks about the details of the 2008 financial crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nIN咖2023-03-19 13:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, CNBC premiered the original documentary \"Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World\" on September 12, 2018.In this documentary, Andrew Ross Sorkin, the CNBC anchor and author of the best-selling book \"Too Big to Fail,\" interviews people who were mostly at the center of the vortex at that time, trying to show the public how the United States and the world in 2008 were close to a total economic collapse and led to the worst financial crisis in generations.The documentary is a series of exciting interviews. The top officials of the U.S. government and CEOs of major U.S. banks interviewed have gathered together to try to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy.CEOs Jamie Dimon, John Thain, and others from Wall Street described dramatic 24/7 negotiations. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson recounts the desperate moment when he realized that a Lehman bankruptcy could bring down the global financial system.Will a financial crisis of this magnitude happen again? Sorkin asked this question again and again to those reunited by this documentary. They recalled the nightmare they faced ten years ago and shared weal and woe with the world's financial destiny.The main character of this article is Warren Buffett.When banks began to go bankrupt in 2008, executives turned to Buffett for help, hoping that he would provide financial support in a pinch. He later referred to this incident as \"the Pearl Harbor of the American economy\".In the interview, Buffett gave some details of the crisis process, the interlocking impact on regulation, institutions, and markets, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One's own considerations have been talked about, and the handling of human nature is also very interesting.He said, \"Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.”\"Crisis always comes at some point,But I'm not worried about the crisis because I manage my behavior properly.”This documentary was launched in 2018, ten years after the crisis. Such a just right time distance makes Buffett's retrospection and thinking more meaningful in the present.Especially in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse triggered a chain reaction that spread from the United States to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Opposite shore<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>, spreading investors' concerns about the stability of the European and American banking systems.At this time, it will be very enlightening for us to look back at Buffett's way of thinking during the 2008 crisis, the weight given to decision-making information, and the consistent investment principles he holds.This translation by Eason is very pleasant to read. I hope it will be beneficial for everyone to open the book.\"This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.\"SOLKIN:Going back to 2008 and looking at the big picture, what do you think caused the 2008 crisis.Buffett:The numerous tributaries converge to form the Missouri River. (But I think the most important factor is that people think that housing will only go up and not go down, and the housing market is at $2 trillion. It's a very huge asset class.People used it as money (through asset securitization), but then people found that it didn't go all the way up.They borrowed money through real estate, which affected this incident from beginning to end in this rope.The people at the top of the rope are busy issuing mortgages on real estate they know they don't need to hold, and they can immediately pack them and sell them to investors as far away as Norway.Some people refinance through these loans, and whether the monthly payment of the mortgage lender is too high or whether they are misstating their income doesn't seem to have any impact on them.The people who refinanced them were also involved.Essentially, there is a huge speculation in real estate. Of the 75 million American home buyers, 50 million participated in the mortgage business, and only 25 million avoided the impact. 50 million loan households get houses through leverage, and many people depend on them to survive, while their asset prices collapse.This is the largest financial involvement in history, but it turns out that the behavior of all participants is terrible.They believe (real estate prices only go up but not down), and when people believe something ridiculous, such things will happen.SOLKIN:In early 2008, some hedge funds holding subprime loans collapsed. Were you worried at that time? Do you remember your mood at that time?Buffett:I'm not worried. Because I always assume that (if) I participate in the American economy all my life, its value will rise sharply over time, but at the same time, it will be accompanied by some stumbling.Our economic system dictates that we will have some cyclical madness, so I never try to predict the market, and I don't predict the business (future direction), I just try to adapt to everything that happens.In the summer of 2008, I did get a call from a leading Wall Street company trying to sell us many, many, many billions of Freddie Mac stock. I knew something might have gone wrong.\"I wrote down the page number where I found the problem on the front page, and I knew that we wouldn't invest in it (Lehman).\"SOLKIN:I don't know if you remember, after Bear Stearns fell and before Freddie and Fannie, you received a phone call from Richard Dick Fuld, chairman and CEO of Lehman Brothers, who told you that his stock was being attacked by short sellers.Buffett:Yes, I highly doubt anyone saying that to me. I like people who sell short Berkshire, how can short sellers hurt you?SOLKIN:Forde said that you had an investment opportunity of 3-5 billion yuan. Were you interested at that time?Buffett:I'm interested in hearing him out.SOLKIN:How did you respond to him?Buffett:I told him, give me your thoughts, first tell me your offer, and then I'll know if I'm interested in doing some research on it.Then he threw out some tentative ideas. In fact, I remember him asking me if I could get Henry \"Hank\" Merritt Paulson (then U.S. Treasury Secretary) to call me about the issue.Hank called me at 67 a.m. on Friday morning, and he offered some totally substandard endorsements. He probably hoped that I would finance Lehman, but his sales pitch was too hard. I think he also realized it was wrong.Anyway, I opened Lehman's 10K report that afternoon and it was 250-300 pages long. I wrote down the page number on the front page where I found the problem, and I learned that we wouldn't invest in it.My office still keeps this note.SOLKIN:What do you see?Buffett:I just saw a lot of things that made me worry about their finances and scenarios that were already happening on Wall Street at the time, and probably happening to them.\"We're probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.\"SOLKIN:Now we come to \"that weekend\" of September 12, 2008. What you are getting now is not a phone call from Lehman Brothers but a phone call from AIG asking if you would like to invest $10 billion in it.Buffett:I told them, don't count on us, I know time is very precious to you guys, so don't waste it on us. So, at that point in time, I refused.Soon after, they returned to our view. I said at the time, I can't solve this problem. We have to pay about 27 billion dollars. We have the financial resources, but I don't know where we will go because of this.What was true then was that they passed me a lot of material at 8 p.m. on Friday night telling me they were in crisis.SOLKIN:What do you think it means that they call Warren Buffett?Buffett:This means, they know that if we see something, our actions can be very quick. We are probably the best fast buyers at the $1 billion level.And for this case, they know that I am very interested in the insurance business. They may be out of business in a few days, so they are also very desperate.\"If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and was aware of everything that was going on, I think whether I had the ability to step in or not, I would choose to step in.\"SOLKIN:When many people look back on this crisis, they still regard the fall of Lehman Brothers that weekend as the crucial moment of the crisis, and debate whether the US government should intervene at that moment. The next morning,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a>And the Wall Street Journal both wrote op-eds praising (the U.S. government didn't intervene).Buffett:Yeah, at the time everyone was thinking, \"Let these Wall Street guys fuck off, we've had enough of them\".A long time ago, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whatever they want to do, they can do it. This may change somewhat under the Dodd-Frank Act, but...(Note: The full name of the Dodd-Frank Act is the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a U.S. federal law passed on July 21, 2010. It is generally considered one of the most important bills enacted during the Obama presidency.)SOLKIN:So you think if the Fed wanted to step in, they could have stepped in at the time.Buffett:If I were the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time and saw everything that was going on in the United States, I think I would choose to step in whether I was able to step in or not.The Supreme Court may have arrested me as a criminal, but I think from the perspective of national interest, that's what I have to do in that role.SOLKIN:So you think the Fed made a mistake?Buffett:I don't know.Because they have to promise too much to the public. Many people face losing their homes, seeing their assets shrink drastically, and various personal problems.However, it is very difficult to promise that all AIG employees will be rescued and the people will be protected.SOLKIN:At the time, how much political pressure was on Hank, the Fed, and others in need of a bailout.Buffett:HUGE. Bernanke (then chairman of the Federal Reserve), Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner (then chairman of the New York Fed) and George Bush were arguing fiercely, but the American people wouldn't buy it.\"I think the silent hero in this whole affair is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>CEO Ken Lewis, who bought Merrill Lynch. \"SOLKIN:Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and AIG was bailed out. But then, people began to worry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GE\">General Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The future of Morgan Stanley.Buffett:When Lehman went bankrupt, the largest holders of commercial paper were money market funds, and these things fell like dominoes one after another, and anything Hank and Bernanke did had to take into account the reaction from Congress.Congress didn't realize the magnitude of the problem, Bush did. I didn't vote for him, but his ability to realize the seriousness of the problem made me give him a high grade.SOLKIN:Later that week, I got a call from Goldman Sachs. Do you remember that call?Buffett:I remember that phone call. Haha, when Goldman comes to you for money, you'll remember it.SOLKIN:What were your thoughts at the time?Buffett:I think there are reliable people in power in the Treasury Department, reliable people in power in the Federal Reserve, and the president is reliable, except Congress worries me. I think the Golden Meeting is intact as long as the market is not completely shut down.I think the silent hero of the whole affair is that Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) bought Merrill Lynch on Monday.I think he got some advice to buy Merrill Lynch for $30 (Note: In fact, Bank of America paid $30 billion to buy Merrill Lynch for about $29 per share). He made his decision on Saturday and announced the acquisition on Sunday.At that time, no one knew how much Merrill Lynch was worth, but he said that we would pay $30 (a share) to buy it, which was a fair price.If not, Merrill Lynch could be at only 30 cents on Monday.SOLKIN:You think this is a big mistake?Buffett:For the financial system as a whole, this is not a mistake. Merrill Lynch also performed very well after its acquisition, but at that point, if Bank of America hadn't announced its acquisition on Sunday, it might have been another Lehman Brothers.At the Lehman moment, if they decided to take the money to bail out Lehman, they would have to tell Merrill Lynch to survive on their own, and the whole thing would be different.\"Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.\"SOLKIN:Looking back at that history, are there some things you felt you should have done but didn't do? What investments are not reached?Buffett:I can look back on any week and find something like this.If we could have waited an extra 4-5 months at that time, Berkshire could have bought a lot of things cheaper. Shares were much cheaper in March 2009 than they were in October 2008.I wrote an op-ed in the New York Times in late October 2008, and I was right in the long run, but it was much cheaper after 4-5 months.SOLKIN:Do you think, this system has taken us so much forward, but still takes us back to the Great Depression, where are these red lines?Buffett:If the crisis is not properly handled, it may last longer. But there is always a way out of the crisis, and we have come out of the crisis.At one point, the government must step up and step in to solve the crisis. There is only one force in the whole world that can make people reduce leverage, and there is only one force (referring to government departments). If they don't do so for some reason, the crisis will come.SOLKIN:For the public, the new generation, are there any lessons they can learn from this crisis?Buffett:No, no. Because people always panic, which is why the Federal Reserve was set up.In the nineteenth century, there were all kinds of panic in our country.Panic happens when people are afraid. Confidence is built step by step, but fear is immediate.Moreover, this is not affected by people's IQ. Even if they have a doctoral degree, being afraid is being afraid.I know some people whose names you might be surprised to hear. At that time, they chose to believe only in gold and nothing else.The power of fear is enormous.SOLKIN:Do you see any connections, implications between the crisis of ten years ago and the politics, governments and institutions of the present?Buffett:Yes, people's long-term memory. The same was true in 1929, which took a long time. When they feel extreme fear, something will be left and engraved in their minds.They want to know who causes their fear. They really shouldn't blame themselves either. I mean, everyone shouldn't be required to be a financial expert.When buying a house, falsely report a little income on the loan application form, think that house prices will continue to rise, so refinance accordingly, etc. Who will be blamed for these things?SOLKIN:So, is anyone responsible for this crisis? It's also a political issue.Buffett:A lot of people do very stupid things, but I don't think anyone should be (responsible for it). I mean, there are always people doing fake things. To some extent, these people are attracted to the real estate market, because you can easily make money from it. You can make a new loan in Bakersfield, California and then easily sell it to Norway. Then, it becomes a series of contracts, and the value of one security contract is based on another contract.I once looked at a securitization product, and I had to look at 300,000 pages of material to understand primary securities and subordinate securities based on it and so on. Moreover, for quite some time, everyone was safe and sound, so everyone was used to this way.Crisis will happen here.\"Crisis will always come at some point, but I'm not worried about it. Because I manage my behavior properly.\"SOLKIN:Are you worried about another crisis coming?Buffett:Crisis always comes at some point, but I'm not worried about it.SOLKIN:Why?Buffett because I manage my behavior properly, even if another crisis comes, Berkshire will be very healthy。SOLKIN:What are you worried about at the moment?Buffett:Rising asset prices attract people into the market who completely don't understand it. People are interested in it because of asset appreciation, but they don't really know it themselves.When you think your neighbor, who is much dumber than you, has become rich because of rising asset prices, and you haven't, your spouse will ask you: Can't you figure it out too (and make a lot of money)?It's just so contagious.This is a part of the capital system that will always be there. But you ask me which class of assets is in this state right now, and I haven't observed it yet.SOLKIN:Are we better positioned to deal with another crisis now?Buffett:This is an interesting question. I've never read the 2,000 + pages of the Dodd-Frank Act in its entirety, I've only read the synopsis.I have a view, and my view may be wrong. But I (do) think that this bill may hinder the Fed from dealing with the crisis quickly and cooperatively.It was a terrible mistake, I would say. We need a Fed with powerful power!You may not like it, and it may do something you don't like, but in this country with a 10 trillion residential market and more than 75 million home buyers, you need a force capable of reducing leverage.SOLKIN:During that week, these people kept calling you. How did you evaluate it at that time?Buffett:I did call it \"the Pearl Harbor incident of the American economy\" on CNBC at that time. I had never used such a metaphor before. I felt that I had never experienced anything like this before.Moreover, in terms of immediate panic, the crisis at that time was even worse than it was in 1929.On September 29, 1929, the Dow plunged after hitting a high of 381. I was born in August 1930, and the Dow Jones has returned to 250 points. It has not caused so many people to panic on such a widespread scale.It hit Wall Street, but the scope of Wall Street at that time was far less than it is now, which may be caused by 401K and many other things. Dwelling will reach everyone.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g\">IN咖</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/N1qWKAtdvFA0-ntrQC0R8g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106466264","content_text":"雷曼兄弟倒闭的十年之后，2018年9月12日CNBC首播了原创纪录片《华尔街危机：震撼世界的一周》（Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World）。在这部纪录片中，CNBC主播、畅销书《大而不倒》（Too Big to Fail）的作者安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金（Andrew Ross Sorkin）采访了多为彼时深陷漩涡中心的人物，试图向公众展现2008年的美国和世界是如何接近全面经济崩溃、且导致了几代人来最严重的金融危机。纪录片是系列扣人心弦的采访讲述。受访的美国政府最高层官员以及美国各大银行CEO们，他们曾聚集在一起，试图拯救雷曼兄弟免于破产。来自华尔街的CEO杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）、约翰·塞恩（John Thain）和其他人描述了戏剧性的全天候谈判。前美国财政部长汉克·保尔森（Hank Paulson）讲述了他意识到雷曼破产可能会拖垮全球金融体系的绝望时刻。如此规模的金融危机会再次发生吗？索尔金一次又一次地向因这部纪录片再度聚首的人提出这个问题。他们回忆着十年前曾面临的噩梦，曾与世界范围的金融命运呼吸与共。本文的主角是沃伦·巴菲特。2008年银行开始破产时，高管们向巴菲特求助，希望他在紧要关头提供资金支持。后来，他将这一事件称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”。巴菲特在访谈中，对于危机过程中的一些细节，对于监管、机构、市场环环相扣的影响，以及伯克希尔自身的考量，都有谈到，其中关于人性的拿捏，也很有意思。他说，“当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机，因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”这场纪录片，是在危机发生十年之后2018年推出。这样一个恰恰好的时间距离，让巴菲特的回溯与思考，更富有当下的意义。尤其在硅谷银行倒闭事件引发连锁反应，从美国蔓延至大西洋对岸的瑞士信贷，让投资者对欧美银行体系稳定性的担忧蔓延。这时候，回头去看巴菲特对于 2008 年危机事件过程中，思考的方式，对于决策信息赋予的权重，以及所持有的一贯投资原则，对我们都会很有启发。Eason的这篇翻译，很有悦读感，希望大家开卷有益。“这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。”索尔金：回到2008年，从大局来看，你认为是什么导致了2008年的危机。巴菲特：众多的支流汇聚形成了密苏里河。（但我认为最重要的因素在于）人们认为房产会只涨不跌，而住宅市场规模达到了2万亿美元。这是一个非常巨大的资产类别。人们（通过资产证券化）将其当做货币使用，但随后人们发现它并非一路上涨。他们通过房产举债，在这条绳子的从头到尾都对这次事件造成了影响。绳子顶端的人忙着签发一些明知道自己无需持有的地产抵押贷款，他们签发之后可以立刻打包卖给远在挪威的投资者。有些人通过这些贷款进行再融资，房贷人的月供是否太高、是否虚报了自己的收入似乎对他们没有任何影响。为他们提供再融资的人也参与其中。本质上，（参与其中人）对房地产有一个巨大的投机行为。7500万美国购房家庭中有5000万个家庭参与了房贷业务，只有2500万避免受到了冲击。5000万贷款家庭通过杠杆获得房屋，很多人赖以生存，而他们的资产价格出现崩溃。这是史上参与规模最大的金融行为，但事实证明所有参与者的行为都很糟糕。他们相信了（房产价格只涨不跌），当人们相信了某些荒唐的事情时，这样的事情就会发生。索尔金：2008年早期，一些持有次级贷款的对冲基金倒下了，你当时感到担忧吗？你还记得你当时的心情吗？巴菲特：我没有担忧。因为我始终假设（如果）一生都参与到美国经济当中的话，它的价值会随着时间大幅上涨，但同时会伴随着一些磕磕绊绊。我们的经济体系决定了我们会发生一些周期性的疯狂，所以我从不尝试预测市场，我也不会去预测生意（未来的走向），我只是试着去适应所发生的一切。2008年的夏天，我确实接到了某家华尔街头部公司的电话，试图卖给我们几百亿美元（many，many，many billions）的房地美股票。我知道可能出了大问题。“我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其（雷曼）进行投资。”索尔金：我不知道你是否还记得，在贝尔斯登倒下后、房地美和房利美出事前，你接到了迪克·福尔德（Richard Dick Fuld，雷曼兄弟董事长兼CEO）的电话，他告诉你，他的股票被卖空者狙击了。巴菲特：是的，任何人对我这么说，我都高度怀疑。我喜欢卖空伯克希尔的人，卖空者怎么会伤害到你？索尔金：福尔德说你有一个30-50亿的投资机会，你当时感兴趣了吗？巴菲特：我有兴趣听完他的讲话。索尔金：你如何回复他的？巴菲特：我告诉他，把你的想法告诉我，首先告诉我你的报价，然后我会知道我是否有兴趣对此做一些调查。接着，他抛出了一些试探性的想法。事实上，我还记得他问我能不能让汉克·保尔森（Henry“Hank”Merritt Paulson，时任美国财政部长）就此问题给我打电话。周五早上67点，汉克就给我打了电话，他提出了一些完全不合格的背书，他可能希望我会为雷曼提供融资，但他的推销用力过度了。我想他也意识到这样不对。无论如何，那天下午我翻开了雷曼的10K报告，它有250-300页长。我在首页写下了我发现问题的页码，我知道了我们不会对其进行投资。我的办公室现在仍保存了这份笔记。索尔金：你看到了什么？巴菲特：我只是看到了很多让我担心他们财务状况的东西，以及当时已经在华尔街发生、可能也发生在他们身上的情景。“我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。”索尔金：现在我们来到了2008年9月12日的“那个周末”。你现在接到的不是来自雷曼兄弟的电话而是来自AIG的电话，询问你是否愿意对其投资100亿美元。巴菲特：我告诉他们，不要指望我们，我知道时间对你们来说非常宝贵，所以不要把时间浪费在我们身上。所以，那个时间点上，我拒绝了。不久之后，他们重新回到了我们的视野。我当时说，我无法解决这个问题，我们要支付大概270亿美元，我们有这个财力，但是我不知道我们因此会去往何处。当时的真实情况是，他们周五晚上8点传给了我很多材料，告诉我他们正处于危机之中。索尔金：你觉得，他们打电话给沃伦·巴菲特意味着什么？巴菲特：这意味着，他们知道如果我们看到了某样东西，我们的行动可以非常迅速。我们可能是最好的10亿美元级别的快速买家。并且针对这个案例，他们知道我对保险业务很感兴趣。他们可能在几天之内就要倒闭，因此他们也非常绝望。“如果我是当时的美联储主席并且意识到发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我会选择介入。”索尔金：很多人回顾这场危机时仍然将那个周末雷曼兄弟的倒下视作危机的关键时刻，并且争论那个时刻美国政府是否应该介入。第二天早上，纽约时报和华尔街日报都写了专栏文章赞扬（美国政府没有介入）。巴菲特：是的，当时所有人都想，“让这些华尔街的滚蛋，我们受够了他们”。很久以前，美联储主席说，无论他们想做什么，他们都可以这么去做。在《多德-弗兰克法案》下，这点可能发生一定的改变，但是……（注：《多德-弗兰克法案》全名是多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法案，于2010年7月21日通过的美国联邦法律。通常被认为是奥巴马总统任期内颁布的最重要的法案之一。）索尔金：所以你认为，如果美联储想要介入，他们当时可以介入。巴菲特：如果我是当时的美联储主席并且看到了美国发生的一切，我想无论我是否有能力介入，我都会选择介入。最高法院可能把我当作罪犯逮捕，但我认为从国家利益的角度来看，那是我在身处那个角色必须做的。索尔金：所以你认为美联储犯了错？巴菲特：我不知道。因为，他们必须要向公众承诺的太多了。很多人面临失去自己的住宅、看到自己的资产大幅缩水，以及各种个人问题。然而，你要承诺AIG的所有员工都会得到救助、民众也会得到保障，这么做非常困难。索尔金：当时，汉克、美联储和其他需要救助的人身上的政治压力有多大。巴菲特：巨大。伯南克（时任美联储主席）、汉克·保尔森、蒂姆·盖特纳（Tim Geithner，时任纽约联储主席）以及乔治·布什当时正在激烈争论，但美国民众不会买账的。“我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是美国银行CEO肯·刘易斯，他买下了美林。”索尔金：雷曼兄弟破产了，美国银行收购了美林，AIG得到了救助。但之后，人们又开始担忧通用电气、高盛、摩根斯坦利的未来。巴菲特：当雷曼破产之后，商业票据的最大持有者是货币市场基金，这些事情像（多米诺骨牌一样）一个接一个倒下，而汉克和伯南克做的任何事情必须考虑来自国会的反应。国会没有意识到问题的严重性，布什认识到了。我没有投票给他，但是他能意识到问题的严重性让我给他打很高的分。索尔金：那周的晚些时候，我接到了来自高盛的电话，你记得那通电话吗？巴菲特：我记得那通电话。哈哈，当高盛找你要钱，你会记得的。索尔金：你当时的想法是什么？巴菲特：我认为财政部有可靠的人在掌权、美联储有可靠的人掌权、总统也是可靠的，只不过国会让我担忧。我认为高盛会完好无损，只要市场没有被完全关闭。我认为整个事件中无声的英雄是肯·刘易斯（美国银行CEO）在周一买下了美林银行。我想他得到了一些意见以30美元的价格买下美林（注：实际上，美国银行以每股约29美元的价格，斥资300亿美元买下美林）。他周六做出了决定，周日宣布收购。当时，没有任何知道美林银行到底值多少钱，但是他说我们会支付30美元（一股）的价格买下它，这是个公正的价格。（如果不这么做，）美林周一（的股价）可能只有3毛钱。索尔金：你认为这是个大错误？巴菲特：对于整个金融系统来说，这不是错误。美林在被收购之后也表现得非常好，但在那个时点，如果美国银行没有在周日宣布收购，它可能是另一个雷曼兄弟。在雷曼时刻，如果他们决定拿钱为雷曼纾困，他们就不得不告诉美林依靠自己生存下去，整个事情就会变得不一样。“信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。”索尔金：回溯那段历史，你是否有一些觉得自己应该做但没做的事？哪些没有达成的投资？巴菲特：我可以回顾任何一周，找到这样的事情。如果当时，我们可以多等待4-5个月的话，伯克希尔能以更便宜的价格买入很多东西。2009年3月的股价比2008年10月便宜得多。2008年10月下旬，我在纽约时报写了专栏文章，长期来看我是对的，但是4-5个月之后的价格要便宜得多。索尔金：你会不会思考，这个系统带我们前进了这么多，但仍然会让我们回到大萧条时期，这些红线在哪里？巴菲特：如果危机没有被妥善处理，可能会持续更长时间。但是总能走出危机，我们已经走出了危机。在某一个时刻，政府必须站出来介入解决危机。整个世界只有一种力量可以让人们降杠杆，只有一种力量（指政府部门）。如果他们由于某些原因没有这么去做，危机就会到来。索尔金：对于公众、新一代人来说，他们是否可以从这场危机中学到什么教训？巴菲特：没有。因为人们总会恐慌，这也是设立美联储的原因。19世纪时，我们国家有过各种各样的恐慌。当人们害怕的时候，恐慌就发生了。信心是一步一步建立的，但恐惧是即时的。而且，这不受人们智商的影响、就算是有博士学历，害怕就是害怕了。我知道一些人，你听到他们的名字可能会惊讶，在那个时候，他们选择只相信黄金、不相信其他任何事物。害怕的力量是巨大的。索尔金：你认为十年前的危机与现在的政治、政府和机构之间有什么联系、影响吗？巴菲特：是的，人们的长期记忆。1929年时也是这样，这（化解）需要很长时间。当他们感受到了极端的恐惧，有些东西会留下、刻在他们的脑中。他们想知道谁造成了他们的恐惧。他们确实也不应该责怪自己。我的意思是，不应该要求每个人都是金融专家。在买房时在贷款申请表上虚报一点收入，认为房价会继续上涨所以依此进行再融资等等，谁会因为这些事儿受到责怪。索尔金：所以，是否有人应该为这场危机负责呢？这也是个政治问题。巴菲特：很多人做了非常愚蠢的事情，但我不认为有人应该（为此负责）。我是说，始终有一些人在做一些虚假的事情。一定程度上，这些人被房地产市场所吸引，因为你可以从中很容易赚到钱，你可以在加州贝克斯菲尔德新发贷款然后轻易地卖到挪威。然后，它变成了一连串合约，一个证券合约的价值要基于另一个合约。我曾看过一份证券化产品，我不得不去看长达30万页的材料去理解初级证券和基于它的次级证券等等。而且，在相当一段时间，大家都安然无恙，所以大家都习惯了这种方式。危机会在此发生的。“危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。因为我妥善地管好自己的行为。”索尔金：你担心另一场危机的到来吗？巴菲特：危机总会在某个时刻到来，但我并不担心危机。索尔金：为什么？巴菲特因为我妥善地管好自己的行为，就算另一场危机到来，伯克希尔也会非常健康。索尔金：当下，你会担忧什么事情？巴菲特：资产价格上涨吸引了完全不理解它的人进入市场。人们因为资产增值而对它感兴趣，但并不是自己真正了解它。当你认为比你笨很多的邻居因资产价格上涨而变得富有，而你没有变富，你的配偶就会问你：你就不能也弄明白（然后赚大钱）吗？这实在是太具传染性了。这是资本系统永远会存在的一部分。但你问我现在哪一类资产正处于这种状态，我还没有观察到。索尔金：我们现在能更好地应对另一场危机吗？巴菲特：这是一个有趣的问题。我从没有完整读过2000多页的《多德-弗兰克法案》，我只读了概要。我有一个种观点，我的这种观点可能是错误的。但是我（确实）认为，这份法案可能阻碍了美联储快速、与多方合作地（处理危机）。我会说，这是一个可怕的错误。我们需要一个拥有强权的美联储！你可能不喜欢它，它可能做一些你不喜欢的事情，但是这个拥有10万亿住宅市场、7500多万购房家庭的国家，你需要一个有能力降杠杆的力量。索尔金：在那一周，这些人不断地打电话给你，在当时你如何评估的？巴菲特：我当时确实在CNBC将之称为“美国经济的珍珠港事件”，我之前从没用过这样的比喻。我感受到我从没经历过类似的事件。而且，从即时的恐慌程度来讲，当时的危机甚至比1929年更糟。1929年9月29日，道琼斯指数触及高点381点后暴跌。我于1930年8月出生，道琼斯已经回到了250点，它没有让这么多人陷于如此大范围的恐慌。它打击了华尔街，但那时的华尔街能影响到的范围远不及现在，这可能是由于401K和其他很多事情造成的。住宅会触及到所有人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2298,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}