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2021-08-03

Tencent-Should we trust the support of history?

从各种角度，腾讯的估值都已经创最近十年的新低水平。

Tencent-Should we trust the support of history?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":804622220,"tweetId":"804622220","gmtCreate":1627955029060,"gmtModify":1703498488339,"author":{"id":3569994198146843,"idStr":"3569994198146843","authorId":3569994198146843,"authorIdStr":"3569994198146843","name":"额不知道","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/747b576f014d538dabeb16273b89264c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804622220","repostId":1159597211,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1159597211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627905808,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159597211?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 20:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tencent-Should we trust the support of history?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159597211","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"从各种角度，腾讯的估值都已经创最近十年的新低水平。","content":"<p>Author: Guosen Securities Wang Xueheng</p><p>Recently, the capital market has often discussed Tencent's current valuation. From various angles, Tencent's valuation has hit a new low level in the past ten years. Tencent's current market value is 3.82 trillion yuan. Considering that its secondary market investment and primary market investment were about 1.5 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan last year, it is pessimistically expected that this figure will shrink to half, that is, 800 billion yuan level, then the value of the company's three major businesses of games, payment and cloud, and advertising is 3 trillion yuan. According to last year's net profit of 159.8 billion yuan and this year's scenario, the corresponding valuation level is 18.7 times PE.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f51cbae1058b71ca4dd0bcf188d2bc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Of course, all investors will think that although cheap, where will it fall in the short term? We explain this problem with the 43-month line (the length of the global Kitchen cycle, which we refer to as the Kitchen cycle line for short). Historically, Tencent's stock price has formed support at this position and has become a buying point for bottom out, without exception, and in most periods, it is difficult to touch this place, such as 2012-2017. This is the characteristic of high-quality targets: that is, other stocks have fallen below the Kitchen cycle line, while they are gaining support at the Kitchen cycle line and brewing a new round of gains. Although, the reasons for touching the Kitchen cycle line are different, such as 1) systemic risks: financial crisis, European debt crisis, COVID-19 pandemic; 2) Industry risks. This month, the value of the Kitchen cycle line is 429.91 yuan, and the lowest price last week has touched it and gained support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73cd79ba7c281952500d4b3c95096c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>So, we should turn the Tencent question into another question: What's the difference between this time and history? On the one hand, it has encountered the strictest industry regulation in history, but on the other hand, it has not yet seen that this regulation will affect the company's survival.</p><p>Although some people will worry: 1) Gaming and payment businesses may be affected by regulation in the future; 2) the possibility of taxing the Internet separately; 3) Data regulation affects the competitiveness of the industry; 4) Even pessimistic investors believe that the possibility of a spin-off; 5) Other risks that are currently unpredictable. Translate these reasons into about five words: This time is different!</p><p>As Dalio recently said: \"As for investing, in my opinion, the systems and markets of the United States and China have both opportunities and risks, and are likely to compete with each other and diversify. Therefore, they should both be regarded as important parts of an individual's investment portfolio. I suggest that you don't misinterpret these actions as a reversal of trends that have existed over the past few decades and let them scare you away.\" He still believes this time is no different.</p><p><b>Many voices in the market believe that the valuation of the Internet industry will change historically. Whether this statement is correct or not will be left to review half a year or a year later. The Kitchen cycle line is the best way to test whether history has changed.</b></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent-Should we trust the support of history?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent-Should we trust the support of history?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 20:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Guosen Securities Wang Xueheng</p><p>Recently, the capital market has often discussed Tencent's current valuation. From various angles, Tencent's valuation has hit a new low level in the past ten years. Tencent's current market value is 3.82 trillion yuan. Considering that its secondary market investment and primary market investment were about 1.5 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan last year, it is pessimistically expected that this figure will shrink to half, that is, 800 billion yuan level, then the value of the company's three major businesses of games, payment and cloud, and advertising is 3 trillion yuan. According to last year's net profit of 159.8 billion yuan and this year's scenario, the corresponding valuation level is 18.7 times PE.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f51cbae1058b71ca4dd0bcf188d2bc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Of course, all investors will think that although cheap, where will it fall in the short term? We explain this problem with the 43-month line (the length of the global Kitchen cycle, which we refer to as the Kitchen cycle line for short). Historically, Tencent's stock price has formed support at this position and has become a buying point for bottom out, without exception, and in most periods, it is difficult to touch this place, such as 2012-2017. This is the characteristic of high-quality targets: that is, other stocks have fallen below the Kitchen cycle line, while they are gaining support at the Kitchen cycle line and brewing a new round of gains. Although, the reasons for touching the Kitchen cycle line are different, such as 1) systemic risks: financial crisis, European debt crisis, COVID-19 pandemic; 2) Industry risks. This month, the value of the Kitchen cycle line is 429.91 yuan, and the lowest price last week has touched it and gained support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73cd79ba7c281952500d4b3c95096c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>So, we should turn the Tencent question into another question: What's the difference between this time and history? On the one hand, it has encountered the strictest industry regulation in history, but on the other hand, it has not yet seen that this regulation will affect the company's survival.</p><p>Although some people will worry: 1) Gaming and payment businesses may be affected by regulation in the future; 2) the possibility of taxing the Internet separately; 3) Data regulation affects the competitiveness of the industry; 4) Even pessimistic investors believe that the possibility of a spin-off; 5) Other risks that are currently unpredictable. Translate these reasons into about five words: This time is different!</p><p>As Dalio recently said: \"As for investing, in my opinion, the systems and markets of the United States and China have both opportunities and risks, and are likely to compete with each other and diversify. Therefore, they should both be regarded as important parts of an individual's investment portfolio. I suggest that you don't misinterpret these actions as a reversal of trends that have existed over the past few decades and let them scare you away.\" He still believes this time is no different.</p><p><b>Many voices in the market believe that the valuation of the Internet industry will change historically. Whether this statement is correct or not will be left to review half a year or a year later. The Kitchen cycle line is the best way to test whether history has changed.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzA0MDkzNA==&mid=2649606766&idx=1&sn=bbb6da675326f3bf633f2e9309928367&chksm=87e5e5a7b0926cb17f9eec200c273d968d1171de0030b67953b8e2284f7e852d0b9440b204d3&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0802NQHXThVy3m7AE3EJHMtI&sharer_sharetime=1627897972844&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142#rd\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4MzA0MDkzNA==&mid=2649606766&idx=1&sn=bbb6da675326f3bf633f2e9309928367&chksm=87e5e5a7b0926cb17f9eec200c273d968d1171de0030b67953b8e2284f7e852d0b9440b204d3&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0802NQHXThVy3m7AE3EJHMtI&sharer_sharetime=1627897972844&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159597211","content_text":"作者：国信证券王学恒\n最近，资本市场经常讨论腾讯当下的估值如何，从各种角度，腾讯的估值都已经创最近十年的新低水平。腾讯当下的市值为3.82万亿元人民币，考虑到它的二级市场投资与一级市场投资在去年大约在1.5万亿元-1.8万亿元水平，悲观预期该数字缩水至一半，即8000亿元水平，则公司游戏、支付与云、广告三大业务价值为3万亿人民币，按照去年1598亿元净利润，今年不增长的情景，对应的估值水平为18.7倍PE。\n当然，所有投资者都会认为虽然便宜，但短期跌至何处？我们以43个月线（全球基钦周期的长度，我们简称基钦周期线）来阐述这个问题。历史上，腾讯的股价在该位置形成支撑，成为触底反弹的买点，没有一次例外，而大多数时期，它很难触及于此，如2012年-2017年。这是优质标的的特征：即，其他股票已经跌破基钦周期线，而它们却在基钦周期线上获得支撑并酝酿新一轮的上涨。尽管，触及基钦周期线的原因各不相同，如1）系统性风险：金融危机、欧债危机、新冠疫情；2）行业风险。本月，基钦周期线的数值为429.91元，上周最低价已经触及该处并获得支撑。\n\n所以，我们当把腾讯问题转化成另一个问题：这次和历史有什么不一样？一方面，它遭遇了历史上最为严格的行业监管，但另一方面，目前尚未看到该监管将影响公司的存续性。\n尽管有人会担忧：1）游戏、支付业务未来或受到监管影响；2）单独为互联网征税的可能性；3）数据监管影响行业的竞争力；4）甚至悲观投资人认为分拆的可能性；5）目前无法预知的其他风险。把这些理由翻译一下大约是五个字：这次不一样！\n如同达里奥最近的发言：“至于投资，在我看来，美国和中国的体系和市场既有机会也有风险，而且很可能相互竞争，实现多元化。因此，它们都应被视为个人投资组合的重要组成部分。我建议你们不要将这些举动误解为过去几十年来存在的趋势的逆转，让这些举动吓跑你们。”他依然相信这次并没有不一样。\n市场不少声音认为互联网行业估值将历史性变化，这种说法正确与否，要留给半年、一年后再复盘来看。而基钦周期线，则是检验“历史是否改变”的最好的办法。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}