Good-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

2
Comment
Favorite

寻音望月
2021-08-25

Good

Is the Hong Kong stock reversal signal clear? Only three times in history, this time it's very different

恒生指数罕见破净史上仅出现3次这次很不一样？　　8月24日，恒生科技指数大涨7.06%，创史上第二大单日涨幅，这距离恒生指数市净率降至0.98倍、跌破净资产仅一个交易日。就在本次反弹前，港股的恒生指数跌破了市净率。港股基金艰难，基金经理判断底部已至　　与此同时，在恒生指数跌破净资产之际，重仓港股的基金年内收益名列倒数。

Is the Hong Kong stock reversal signal clear? Only three times in history, this time it's very different

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":837158684,"tweetId":"837158684","gmtCreate":1629867117648,"gmtModify":1676530156855,"author":{"id":4090298622870650,"idStr":"4090298622870650","authorId":4090298622870650,"authorIdStr":"4090298622870650","name":"寻音望月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c06eeacb125eabd3a4586bbedd65c9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837158684","repostId":2162303853,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2162303853","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1629851039,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162303853?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-25 08:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the Hong Kong stock reversal signal clear? Only three times in history, this time it's very different","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162303853","media":"券商中国","summary":"恒生指数罕见破净 史上仅出现3次 这次很不一样？　　8月24日，恒生科技指数大涨7.06%，创史上第二大单日涨幅，这距离恒生指数市净率降至0.98倍、跌破净资产仅一个交易日。就在本次反弹前，港股的恒生指数跌破了市净率。港股基金艰难，基金经理判断底部已至　　与此同时，在恒生指数跌破净资产之际，重仓港股的基金年内收益名列倒数。","content":"After the index broke the net and Hong Kong stock funds ranked first and second at the bottom, the Hong Kong stock index ushered in a landmark rebound.On August 24, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 7.06%, the second largest single-day increase in history. This was only one trading day after the price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng Index fell to 0.98 times and fell below net assets. Considering that the Hong Kong stock market has transformed into a new economic market dominated by high technology rather than bank real estate, this phenomenon of falling below net assets particularly highlights the attractiveness after wrong killing.Ran Linghao of Dacheng Fund believes that the stagflation of Hong Kong stocks in the early stage provides sufficient room for future compensatory gains, and there will be multiple kinetic energy driving Hong Kong stocks to rise in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is completely determined by the profitability of listed companies; In the next two years, the profits of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise rapidly, strongly supporting the trend of Hong Kong stocks.After a long drought, Hong Kong stocks finally explodedAfter continuous adjustments, fund managers finally waited for an important rebound in Hong Kong stocks.The Hang Seng Index rose 2.46% on August 24, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed up 3.21%; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 7.06%, the second largest single-day increase in history. In terms of fund holdings, Meituan Company closed up 13.51%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose 10.22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>It rose 8.81%.The surge in Hong Kong stocks on August 24 was more like a super counterattack by bargain-hunting funds. Just before this rebound, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks fell below the price-to-book ratio. After a week of continuous decline last week, the price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng Index once fell to 0.98 times on August 20, falling below net assets. This data is at the 1% quantile level since 2002, which means that the price-to-book ratio valuation of the Hang Seng Index is lower than 99% of the time since 2002.It is worth mentioning that the Hang Seng Index has also had three major \"net-breaking\" ranges before, which occurred in 1998<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>The crisis, the A-share circuit breaker in early 2016, and the continued decline of Hong Kong stocks in 2020. However, this year's net breaks are obviously different from the previous three times. During the first three \"net breaks\", the Hang Seng Index still used the financial sector with low valuation and low price-to-book ratio as the main weight industry. However, in recent years, with the continuous optimization of the Hong Kong stock market and index policies, the proportion of the new economic sector of Hong Kong stocks will continue to increase.A Chinese reporter from a brokerage firm learned from an interview that the proportion of new economy companies in the average daily turnover of the Hong Kong stock market has increased from 4% in 2018 to 20% at the end of the first quarter of 2021. In the first quarter of this year, new economy companies The IPO funds raised in Hong Kong have reached a new climax, and this proportion has increased to 95%. Hong Kong stocks are becoming more and more new economic and are shaping a new economic form for Hong Kong stocks.Against the background of a relatively high proportion of technology stocks in the Hong Kong stock market, the current \"net-breaking\" signal may be more obvious than the previous three \"net-breaking\" signals, that is, Hong Kong stocks, a new economic market dominated by technology stocks, may be significantly undervalued.\"The valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is already very low, but its growth remains at a high level, and its PEG is lower than the GEM Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index.\" Ran Linghao of Dacheng Fund said that corresponding to the current situation, the Hang Seng Technology Index P/E in 2021 is 33 times, P/E in 2022 is 25 times, and P/E in 2023 is 20 times. The corresponding compound annualized profit growth rate will reach more than 30%. The valuation of PEG is low, especially for the main heavyweights of the Hang Seng Technology Index.Hong Kong stock funds are struggling, fund managers judge that the bottom has reachedAt the same time, when the Hang Seng Index fell below net assets, funds with heavy positions in Hong Kong stocks ranked the bottom in terms of returns during the year. The data shows that as of August 24, China Universal Hong Kong Hybrid Fund has lost 24.79% this year, ranking first among active equity funds during the year. The second largest loss during the year was E Fund Asia Select Fund, with a loss of 24.11% during the year. The main positions of the fund are also concentrated in the Hong Kong stock market.However, whether it is China Universal Hong Kong Hybrid Fund or E Fund Asia Select Fund, the Hong Kong-listed companies with core positions are all high-quality new economic leaders. Therefore, the performance ranking of related fund products with heavy positions in Hong Kong stocks ranks bottom, which further highlights that the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks seems to have entered a moment of panic and greed.The Hang Seng Index falling below the price-to-book ratio is obviously a symbolic signal, but some big names actually started bargain hunting as early as the beginning of the month.On the evening of August 9, Li Ka-shing's Hong Kong-listed company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">Changhe</a>The company announced that it will repurchase 650,000 shares on August 9, 2021, at a cost of HK $37.5089 million, with the highest repurchase price of HK $58.05 and the lowest repurchase price of HK $57.45. On August 6, it spent HK $52.091 million to repurchase 900,000 shares, and the price per share was also around HK $58. CKH Hutchison has repurchased 9.2975 million shares in the past three months, accounting for 0.24% of the issued share capital.It is worth noting that the repurchases of leading companies related to Hong Kong stocks have further enhanced the confidence of bargain-hunting funds.After August 19, Tencent Holdings continued to repurchase on the 20th, 23rd, and 24th, repurchasing a total of 650,000 shares for 4 consecutive trading days, spending a total of 290 million Hong Kong dollars. Tencent Holdings announced that it repurchased 22,600 shares on the 24th at a cost of HK $10.2005 million. The repurchase price was between HK $450.6 and HK $451.6 per share, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of repurchases.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>It also released a research report stating that it maintains Tencent Holdings' \"buy\" rating and gives PE35-38x in 2022, corresponding to a target price of 700-750 Hong Kong dollars. The agency believes that the revenue of online game business is 43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Basically in line with consensus expectations. Its<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">China Mobile Games</a>Revenue (including social accounts) was 40.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and the bank estimates that the turnover will increase by about 3% year-on-year. Client game revenue increased by 1% year-on-year to 11 billion yuan, exceeding consensus expectations by 1%. Overseas game revenue increased by 29% year-on-year to 10.8 billion yuan, and the actual growth rate after excluding the impact of currency exchange rate was 37%; Accounting for 25% of online game revenue.In the eyes of many institutions, Hong Kong stocks with substantial discounts have entered the range of gradual layout.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">Everbright Securities</a>It is believed that in the long run, due to the recent stock price adjustment of Internet companies, the investment value has become prominent. The intention of supervision is not to curb Internet companies from becoming bigger and stronger. Future policies are likely to tend to regulate the development of the industry rather than subvert it. The standardized Internet companies will remain the most potential and dynamic part of China's economy in the future.In addition, judging from the experience of U.S. stocks, Internet companies have also faced many regulatory pressures, but the risk and probability of business splitting are low. Most companies are still flourishing and rejuvenating after regulation. At present, under regulatory pressure, the Internet giants in Hong Kong stocks have experienced low valuation levels that are rare in history. This is a rare buying opportunity for long-term funds.Dacheng<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>Fund manager Ran Linghao believes that the performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2020 is obviously not as good as that of US stocks and A shares, but the stagflation of Hong Kong stocks in the early stage provides sufficient room for future compensatory gains, and there will be multiple kinetic energy driving Hong Kong stocks to rise in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is completely determined by the profitability of listed companies; In the next two years, the profits of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise rapidly, strongly supporting the trend of Hong Kong stocks.Ran Linghao reiterated the view that the Hang Seng Technology Index has basically reached the bottom range, but believes that the rebound may not come so quickly, because the market needs time to thoroughly digest the policy impact and negative news, during which there may be a narrow range of fluctuations, but by 4 In the quarter, investors will gradually begin to reevaluate the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index based on the performance in 2022. At that time, they will find that the Hang Seng Technology Index still has good growth potential and the valuation is cheaper, which may drive the index to a better increase.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Hong Kong stock reversal signal clear? Only three times in history, this time it's very different</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Hong Kong stock reversal signal clear? Only three times in history, this time it's very different\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n券商中国 \n2021-08-25 08:23\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAfter the index broke the net and Hong Kong stock funds ranked first and second at the bottom, the Hong Kong stock index ushered in a landmark rebound.On August 24, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 7.06%, the second largest single-day increase in history. This was only one trading day after the price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng Index fell to 0.98 times and fell below net assets. Considering that the Hong Kong stock market has transformed into a new economic market dominated by high technology rather than bank real estate, this phenomenon of falling below net assets particularly highlights the attractiveness after wrong killing.Ran Linghao of Dacheng Fund believes that the stagflation of Hong Kong stocks in the early stage provides sufficient room for future compensatory gains, and there will be multiple kinetic energy driving Hong Kong stocks to rise in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is completely determined by the profitability of listed companies; In the next two years, the profits of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise rapidly, strongly supporting the trend of Hong Kong stocks.After a long drought, Hong Kong stocks finally explodedAfter continuous adjustments, fund managers finally waited for an important rebound in Hong Kong stocks.The Hang Seng Index rose 2.46% on August 24, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed up 3.21%; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 7.06%, the second largest single-day increase in history. In terms of fund holdings, Meituan Company closed up 13.51%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose 10.22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>It rose 8.81%.The surge in Hong Kong stocks on August 24 was more like a super counterattack by bargain-hunting funds. Just before this rebound, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks fell below the price-to-book ratio. After a week of continuous decline last week, the price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng Index once fell to 0.98 times on August 20, falling below net assets. This data is at the 1% quantile level since 2002, which means that the price-to-book ratio valuation of the Hang Seng Index is lower than 99% of the time since 2002.It is worth mentioning that the Hang Seng Index has also had three major \"net-breaking\" ranges before, which occurred in 1998<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>The crisis, the A-share circuit breaker in early 2016, and the continued decline of Hong Kong stocks in 2020. However, this year's net breaks are obviously different from the previous three times. During the first three \"net breaks\", the Hang Seng Index still used the financial sector with low valuation and low price-to-book ratio as the main weight industry. However, in recent years, with the continuous optimization of the Hong Kong stock market and index policies, the proportion of the new economic sector of Hong Kong stocks will continue to increase.A Chinese reporter from a brokerage firm learned from an interview that the proportion of new economy companies in the average daily turnover of the Hong Kong stock market has increased from 4% in 2018 to 20% at the end of the first quarter of 2021. In the first quarter of this year, new economy companies The IPO funds raised in Hong Kong have reached a new climax, and this proportion has increased to 95%. Hong Kong stocks are becoming more and more new economic and are shaping a new economic form for Hong Kong stocks.Against the background of a relatively high proportion of technology stocks in the Hong Kong stock market, the current \"net-breaking\" signal may be more obvious than the previous three \"net-breaking\" signals, that is, Hong Kong stocks, a new economic market dominated by technology stocks, may be significantly undervalued.\"The valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is already very low, but its growth remains at a high level, and its PEG is lower than the GEM Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index.\" Ran Linghao of Dacheng Fund said that corresponding to the current situation, the Hang Seng Technology Index P/E in 2021 is 33 times, P/E in 2022 is 25 times, and P/E in 2023 is 20 times. The corresponding compound annualized profit growth rate will reach more than 30%. The valuation of PEG is low, especially for the main heavyweights of the Hang Seng Technology Index.Hong Kong stock funds are struggling, fund managers judge that the bottom has reachedAt the same time, when the Hang Seng Index fell below net assets, funds with heavy positions in Hong Kong stocks ranked the bottom in terms of returns during the year. The data shows that as of August 24, China Universal Hong Kong Hybrid Fund has lost 24.79% this year, ranking first among active equity funds during the year. The second largest loss during the year was E Fund Asia Select Fund, with a loss of 24.11% during the year. The main positions of the fund are also concentrated in the Hong Kong stock market.However, whether it is China Universal Hong Kong Hybrid Fund or E Fund Asia Select Fund, the Hong Kong-listed companies with core positions are all high-quality new economic leaders. Therefore, the performance ranking of related fund products with heavy positions in Hong Kong stocks ranks bottom, which further highlights that the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks seems to have entered a moment of panic and greed.The Hang Seng Index falling below the price-to-book ratio is obviously a symbolic signal, but some big names actually started bargain hunting as early as the beginning of the month.On the evening of August 9, Li Ka-shing's Hong Kong-listed company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">Changhe</a>The company announced that it will repurchase 650,000 shares on August 9, 2021, at a cost of HK $37.5089 million, with the highest repurchase price of HK $58.05 and the lowest repurchase price of HK $57.45. On August 6, it spent HK $52.091 million to repurchase 900,000 shares, and the price per share was also around HK $58. CKH Hutchison has repurchased 9.2975 million shares in the past three months, accounting for 0.24% of the issued share capital.It is worth noting that the repurchases of leading companies related to Hong Kong stocks have further enhanced the confidence of bargain-hunting funds.After August 19, Tencent Holdings continued to repurchase on the 20th, 23rd, and 24th, repurchasing a total of 650,000 shares for 4 consecutive trading days, spending a total of 290 million Hong Kong dollars. Tencent Holdings announced that it repurchased 22,600 shares on the 24th at a cost of HK $10.2005 million. The repurchase price was between HK $450.6 and HK $451.6 per share, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of repurchases.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">Guosen Securities</a>It also released a research report stating that it maintains Tencent Holdings' \"buy\" rating and gives PE35-38x in 2022, corresponding to a target price of 700-750 Hong Kong dollars. The agency believes that the revenue of online game business is 43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Basically in line with consensus expectations. Its<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00302\">China Mobile Games</a>Revenue (including social accounts) was 40.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and the bank estimates that the turnover will increase by about 3% year-on-year. Client game revenue increased by 1% year-on-year to 11 billion yuan, exceeding consensus expectations by 1%. Overseas game revenue increased by 29% year-on-year to 10.8 billion yuan, and the actual growth rate after excluding the impact of currency exchange rate was 37%; Accounting for 25% of online game revenue.In the eyes of many institutions, Hong Kong stocks with substantial discounts have entered the range of gradual layout.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">Everbright Securities</a>It is believed that in the long run, due to the recent stock price adjustment of Internet companies, the investment value has become prominent. The intention of supervision is not to curb Internet companies from becoming bigger and stronger. Future policies are likely to tend to regulate the development of the industry rather than subvert it. The standardized Internet companies will remain the most potential and dynamic part of China's economy in the future.In addition, judging from the experience of U.S. stocks, Internet companies have also faced many regulatory pressures, but the risk and probability of business splitting are low. Most companies are still flourishing and rejuvenating after regulation. At present, under regulatory pressure, the Internet giants in Hong Kong stocks have experienced low valuation levels that are rare in history. This is a rare buying opportunity for long-term funds.Dacheng<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>Fund manager Ran Linghao believes that the performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2020 is obviously not as good as that of US stocks and A shares, but the stagflation of Hong Kong stocks in the early stage provides sufficient room for future compensatory gains, and there will be multiple kinetic energy driving Hong Kong stocks to rise in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is completely determined by the profitability of listed companies; In the next two years, the profits of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise rapidly, strongly supporting the trend of Hong Kong stocks.Ran Linghao reiterated the view that the Hang Seng Technology Index has basically reached the bottom range, but believes that the rebound may not come so quickly, because the market needs time to thoroughly digest the policy impact and negative news, during which there may be a narrow range of fluctuations, but by 4 In the quarter, investors will gradually begin to reevaluate the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index based on the performance in 2022. At that time, they will find that the Hang Seng Technology Index still has good growth potential and the valuation is cheaper, which may drive the index to a better increase.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ed81b1e72df2f2f0f21497fe08eaed","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162303853","content_text":"指数破净及港股基金垫底第一和第二后，港股指数迎来一次标志性的反弹。\n8月24日，恒生科技指数大涨7.06%，创史上第二大单日涨幅，这距离恒生指数市净率降至0.98倍、跌破净资产仅一个交易日。考虑到港股市场已蜕变为以高科技而非银行地产主导的新经济市场，这种跌破净资产的现象，尤其凸显了错杀后的吸引力。\n大成基金冉凌浩认为，港股前期的滞胀正是为将来的补涨提供了充足的空间，未来也将会有多重动能驱动港股上涨。长期来看，港股市场走势完全由上市公司盈利水平决定；未来两年，港股上市公司盈利有望快速上行，有力支撑港股走势。\n久旱逢甘露，港股终于爆发\n在经历持续的调整后，基金经理终于等来港股的一次重要反弹。\n恒生指数在8月24日大涨2.46%，恒生国企指数收涨3.21%；恒生科技指数更是大涨7.06%，创史上第二大单日涨幅。基金重仓股方面，美团公司收盘大涨13.51%、哔哩哔哩大涨10.22%、腾讯控股大涨8.81%。\n港股在8月24日的大涨，更像是抄底资金的一次超级反扑。就在本次反弹前，港股的恒生指数跌破了市净率。在经历上周连续一周的持续走低后，8月20日的恒生指数市净率水平一度降至0.98倍，跌破净资产，该数据位于2002年以来的1%分位水平，意味着恒生指数的市净率估值比2002年以来99%的时间都低。\n值得一提的是，恒生指数此前也有三次主要“破净”区间，分别发生在1998年的亚洲金融危机、2016年初的A股熔断、2020年的港股持续下跌阶段。但今年的破净与过往三次明显不同，前三次“破净”时，恒生指数还是以低估值、低市净率的金融板块为主要权重行业，但近年来，随着港股市场及指数政策不断优化，港股新经济板块占比将不断提升。\n券商中国记者采访获悉，港股市场的日均成交金额中来自新经济公司的占比，由2018年的4%提升到2021年第一季度末的20%，而在今年第一季度，新经济公司在香港的IPO募集资金达到一个新高潮，这一比重提升到95%，港股正越来越新经济化，正塑造港股新的经济形态。\n在港股市场科技股占比较高的背景下，当前“破净”相比以往三次“破净”的信号意味或更加明显，即港股这样以科技股为主导的新经济市场，可能存在明显的低估。\n“恒生科技指数的估值已经很低，但其成长性依然保持在较高水平，其PEG比创业板指数及纳斯达克100指数都低。”大成基金冉凌浩表示，对应目前情况计算，恒生科技指数2021年市盈率为33倍，2022年的市盈率为25倍，2023年市盈率为20倍，对应的复合年化盈利增速达到30%以上，PEG估值较低，尤其是恒生科技指数主要权重股，如某些互联网巨头企业的估值水平已经位于历史低水平区间，意味着坏消息已经在股价中体现出来了，未来下跌空间很小。\n港股基金艰难，基金经理判断底部已至\n与此同时，在恒生指数跌破净资产之际，重仓港股的基金年内收益名列倒数。数据显示，截止8月24日，汇添富香港混合基金今年以来亏损已达24.79%，位列年内主动权益类基金亏损第一。年内亏损排名第二的则是易方达亚洲精选基金，年内亏损为24.11%，该基金的主要仓位也集中在港股市场。\n然而，无论是汇添富香港混合基金，抑或是易方达亚洲精选基金，其核心持仓的港股上市公司，均为清一色的优质新经济龙头。因此，重仓港股的相关基金产品业绩排名位列倒数，更凸显了港股的调整似乎已进入恐慌的贪婪时刻。\n恒生指数跌破市净率显然具有标志性的信号，但一些大佬事实上早在月初就已开启抄底。\n8月9日晚间，李嘉诚的港股上市公司长和公司公告称，于2021年8月9日回购65万股，耗资3750.89万港元，最高回购价58.05港元，最低回购价57.45港元。8月6日耗资5209.1万港元回购90万股，每股价格同样为58港元左右。长和近三个月累计回购股份数为929.75万股，占已发行股本的0.24%。\n值得关注的是，港股相关龙头公司的回购，也进一步增强了抄底资金的信心。\n腾讯控股继8月19日后，陆续于20日、23日、24日持续回购，连续4个交易日共回购65万股，共斥资2.9亿港元。腾讯控股发布公告称，于24日回购2.26万股股票，耗资1020.05万港元，回购价格在每股450.6-451.6港元之间，为连续第四个交易日进行回购。\n国信证券也发布研究报告称，维持腾讯控股“买入”评级，予2022年PE35-38x，对应目标价为700-750港元。该机构认为，网络游戏业务收入为430亿元，同比增长12%。基本符合一致预期。其中手游收入(含社交分账)为408亿元，同比增长13%，该行估算流水同比增长约3%。端游收入同比增长1%至110亿元，超出一致预期1%。海外游戏收入同比增长29%至108亿元，剔除货币汇率影响后实际增速为37%;占网络游戏收入比例达25%。\n大幅折价的港股在许多机构眼中，已进入逐步布局的区间。光大证券认为，长期来看，由于互联网公司近期的股价调整，投资价值已经凸显。监管意图不是遏制互联网企业做大做强，未来政策大概率是倾向于规范行业发展而非颠覆行业。规范后的互联网公司未来仍将是中国经济最具潜力、最有活力的一部分。\n此外，从美股的经验来看，互联网公司也面临过多次监管压力，但业务拆分的风险和概率较低，多数公司在规范后依然蓬勃发展，再次焕发生机。目前港股互联网巨头们在监管压力下，出现了历史上少有的低估值水平，这对长线资金来讲，都是难得的买入时机。\n大成恒生科技ETF基金经理冉凌浩认为，2020年港股表现明显不如美股及A股，但港股前期的滞胀正是为将来的补涨提供了充足的空间，未来也将会有多重动能驱动港股上涨。长期来看，港股市场走势完全由上市公司盈利水平决定；未来两年，港股上市公司盈利有望快速上行，有力支撑港股走势。\n冉凌浩重申恒生科技指数已经基本到底部区间的观点，但认为反弹可能不会来得那么快，因为市场需要时间来彻底消化政策影响和负面消息，其间可能会出现窄幅震荡的走势，但是到了4季度，投资者会逐步开始以2022年的业绩来重估恒生科技指数的估值状况，届时会发现恒生科技指数依然有着很好的成长性，同时估值更便宜了，这可能会推动指数出现较好的涨幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"02833":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2255,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}