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Bluez
2021-08-05

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Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks

美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissman

Increased risk of stagflation! Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks

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Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156717176","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissman","content":"<p>U.S. stocks are still at high levels, but Wall Street banks have begun to warn of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Investors are reminded that the market is beginning to become quite unstable, so they should pay attention to the risk of stock decline and be prepared for hedging.</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a recent research report that the S&P 500 has not fallen by 5% for 187 days, one of the longest durations in the past 100 years; As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios also become more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first took a closer look at recent inflation measures, noting that breakeven inflation has outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance shows that the difference between break-even inflation and various historical correlation indicators seems to be increasing.</p><p>First, last week, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as EU Cyclicals vs Defensives. And, in fact, this trend has appeared since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>Not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Since the second half of last year, US breakeves and US cyclical vs Defensives have begun to decouple continuously.</p><p><b>Breakeven inflation is commonly used to measure inflation expectations. It is important to note, however, that the rise in breakeven inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>On the contrary, as breakeven inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been falling, and the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States have hit new lows in recent times.</p><p><b>Regarding the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such a low real interest rate level points to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to be somewhat contradictory to the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. economic recovery is generally on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>At the heart of reflation are bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June and the yield curve has flattened, not only hinting at the risk of near-term economic slowdown, but also showing the risk of continued prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the downward trend in long-term bond yields is largely driven by real yields, while breakeven inflation is sticky-a sign of growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said that the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong employment report may help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he also warned that the risk of stock market correction has increased. In addition, the widening gap between S&P 500 returns and changes in bond yields over the past six months, coupled with already very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, makes stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rate shocks.</b></p><p>In addition to the above reasons, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in the report.</p><p>For example, the Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has fallen sharply recently. Growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure in terms of index composition. This means that while the earnings season in Europe and the United States is generally strong in the future, the market still doesn't believe that there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that the fiscal stimulus measures in the United States are beginning to disappoint and COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Increased risk of stagflation! 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Goldman Sachs: Hedge against the sharp drop in U.S. stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks are still at high levels, but Wall Street banks have begun to warn of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Investors are reminded that the market is beginning to become quite unstable, so they should pay attention to the risk of stock decline and be prepared for hedging.</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in a recent research report that the S&P 500 has not fallen by 5% for 187 days, one of the longest durations in the past 100 years; As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios also become more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first took a closer look at recent inflation measures, noting that breakeven inflation has outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance shows that the difference between break-even inflation and various historical correlation indicators seems to be increasing.</p><p>First, last week, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as EU Cyclicals vs Defensives. And, in fact, this trend has appeared since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>Not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Since the second half of last year, US breakeves and US cyclical vs Defensives have begun to decouple continuously.</p><p><b>Breakeven inflation is commonly used to measure inflation expectations. It is important to note, however, that the rise in breakeven inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>On the contrary, as breakeven inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been falling, and the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States have hit new lows in recent times.</p><p><b>Regarding the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such a low real interest rate level points to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to be somewhat contradictory to the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the U.S. economic recovery is generally on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>At the heart of reflation are bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June and the yield curve has flattened, not only hinting at the risk of near-term economic slowdown, but also showing the risk of continued prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the downward trend in long-term bond yields is largely driven by real yields, while breakeven inflation is sticky-a sign of growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said that the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong employment report may help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he also warned that the risk of stock market correction has increased. In addition, the widening gap between S&P 500 returns and changes in bond yields over the past six months, coupled with already very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, makes stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rate shocks.</b></p><p>In addition to the above reasons, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in the report.</p><p>For example, the Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has fallen sharply recently. Growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure in terms of index composition. This means that while the earnings season in Europe and the United States is generally strong in the future, the market still doesn't believe that there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that the fiscal stimulus measures in the United States are beginning to disappoint and COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156717176","content_text":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissmann在最近的一篇研报中表示，标普500指数已经有187天没有出现下跌5%的情况，为过去100年来最长持续时间之一；随着股票和债券越来越贵，多资产组合也变得更容易受到利率和经济增长冲击的影响。\nMueller-Glissmann首先仔细观察了近期的通胀指标，指出盈亏平衡通胀表现优于其他“顺周期”资产。通常来说，这两者在历史上一直是密切相关的；但是近期的表现显示，盈亏平衡通胀与各种历史相关性指标的差异似乎越来越大。\n首先，上周欧洲盈亏平衡通胀（EU breakeven inflation）表现优于周期股等资产（EU Cyclicals vs Defensives）。并且，实际上今年二季度以来就已经出现了这一趋势。\n不仅是欧洲，美国也是如此。去年下半年开始美国盈亏平衡通胀（US breakeves）和顺周期资产（US cyclical vs Defensives）就开始不断脱钩了。\n盈亏平衡通胀通常被用于衡量通胀预期。然而需要注意的是，盈亏平衡通胀的上升并没有反映在更重要的实际利率上。\n相反，随着盈亏平衡通胀的上升，整个期限结构的实际利率一直在下降，欧洲和美国的10年期实际利率均在近期创下了新低。\n对于上述情形，高盛警告，如此低的实际利率水平指向了市场对滞涨风险的定价，而这似乎与经济复苏有些矛盾。在高盛经济学家看来，美国经济复苏大体上处在轨道上，通胀压力最终也会缓解。\n\n 通货再膨胀的核心是债券。债券自6月以来强劲上扬，收益率曲线趋平，不仅暗示了近期经济增长放缓的风险，同时也显示了随着货币和财政支持的消失，新一周期内持续长期停滞的风险。此外，长期限债券收益率下行主要是由实际收益率推动的，而盈亏平衡通胀具有粘性——这表明对滞涨的担忧日益加剧。\n\n对于后市的走势，高盛策略师Mueller-Glissmann表示，市场可能需要一些催化剂来重新定价更高的利率，本周强劲的就业报告可能有助于明晰日后的趋势。\n此外，他还警告，股市调整的风险已经增加了。此外，过去6个月，标普500回报率和债券收益率变化之间的差距不断扩大，再加上实际利率已经非常低了，且股票估值非常高，这使得股票更易受到经济增长和利率的冲击。\n除了上述原因之外，高盛还在报告中给出了其他理由。\n比如，高盛风险偏好指标（Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator）近期重挫。从指数组成来看，增长乐观情绪（RAI PC1）仍处于压力之下。这意味着尽管往后看欧洲和美国的财报季总体强劲，但是考虑到美国财政刺激措施开始令人失望，以及新冠疫情拖累了消费，市场仍然不相信在年底和新周期会出现更多积极的增长动力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2538,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}