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2021-08-13

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Tiger's pre-market comments: How big is the imagination of mRNA vaccines?

盘前观察美股盘前小涨。（相关阅读：盘前：“美版拼多多”暴跌26%, 图森未来迎来解禁） FDA正式宣布对特定人群打“第三针”——mRNA疫苗的想象空间到底有多大？ 8个小时前，FDA正式宣布对特定

Tiger's pre-market comments: How big is the imagination of mRNA vaccines?

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ECSY18
·2021-08-16
I have followed the user. please give me a like thank you
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StockWatcher
·2021-08-14
$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ [Call]
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鑫鑫洋
·2021-08-15
[强]
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·2021-08-13
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·2021-08-13
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(Related reading:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1150378564\" target=\"_blank\">Pre-market: \"US version of Pinduoduo\" plummeted 26%, TuSimple ushered in the lifting of the ban in the future</a>） The FDA officially announced the \"third shot\" for specific groups of people-how much imagination is there for mRNA vaccines?Eight hours ago, the FDA officially announced the third injection of COVID-19 vaccine (booster) for specific groups of people. The approved vaccines are two mRNA vaccines, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. People who need the third dose are people with impaired autoimmunity, such as organ transplant patients. For other groups of people, the FDA says that as long as the vaccination is completed, the third shot is not needed for the time being.The FDA statement doesn't say much, but it implies quite a few implied meanings.1. Acknowledging the need for a third shot, even if it is only given to certain groups of people, also acknowledges a basic fact: the more vaccines are given, the stronger the protection the human body can get. At present, all health departments in the world will not publicize this fact, because there are multiple considerations behind it. The most direct impact is that it will lead to further imbalance in global vaccine distribution. The World Health Organization has repeatedly asked all countries around the world not to get the \"third shot\", which is due to the consideration of poor countries. Israel, the fastest-moving country, has started the \"third shot\", and the United States is the second country. After the U.S. announcement, other European countries should follow suit soon. Once developed countries begin to enter the \"third shot\" state, there will be fewer vaccines that can be distributed to poor countries.2. The third injection implies that the effect of the vaccine will be weakened. Judging from this statement, the FDA is very reluctant to think in this direction, just saying that people with impaired immune systems need a third shot. According to Moderna's article published in Science yesterday, people who have received two doses of the vaccine still have antibodies 6 months later, but judging from the chart in the article, the number of antibodies is declining (below). So the next question that needs to be answered by the scientific community is, how far have antibodies dropped to require a third shot?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4297ea88e203d5b18b5ec320360b47e\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">3. The FDA's injection conditions for the \"third injection\" only say that the second injection can be started 28 days later. This attitude reflects that the FDA is very anxious to let specific groups of people get the third injection. The normal third dose of vaccine usually waits until the antibody in the body drops to a certain level. For example, the schedule of three cervical vaccines is 0 months, 1 month, and 6 months. The FDA's \"three-shot COVID-19 vaccine time\" schedule is 0 months, 1 month, and 2 months, which is very urgent. From Fauci's recent speeches, he very much hopes that the United States will push forward the third shot, but he dares not say it too obviously for fear of causing panic.4. With the \"third stitch\", will there be a \"fourth stitch\" and a \"fifth stitch\"? There should be. When we see \"crossing cases\" (that is, we still get sick after being vaccinated), and there are more and more \"crossing cases\", we should know that COVID-19 vaccine may be something that has accompanied human beings for a long time.Why do some vaccines vaccinated by humans last for life (leprosy gills), while others need to be injected all the year round (influenza)? According to a scientific document in 2007 (Duration of Human Immunity to CommonViral and Vaccine Antigens), the half-life of Measles antibodies in the body is as high as 3,000 years, and the half-life of Tetanus antibodies is also 11 years. The way to get antibodies is to get vaccinated or get sick yourself. As for why can measles antibodies persist in the body for a long time, but influenza antibodies can't? I personally don't think the scientific mechanism of this problem is very important, but we can observe(1) There are many influenza in virus mutation. We have only heard of 3-4 hepatitis viruses, but the influenza virus is updated in real time, so the influenza vaccine in the United States is updated almost every year. Currently, it is a quadrivalent flu vaccine.(2) Influenza virus can be transmitted not only in humans, but also in other animals. If there are too many hosts, there will be more space for transmission, and the mutation and crossing of viruses will be easier to occur. The common ones are swine flu and avian influenza.So when you see this, you will feel that influenza and COVID-19 have almost complete phenomena-there are many mutations and hosts, but COVID-19 is more infectious and harmful.So, how much room is there for mRNA vaccines?A few days ago, when mRNA vaccine stocks rose to the sky, BofA analysts immediately published a bearish analysis, believing that no matter how to calculate, the valuation of mRNA vaccine companies cannot be counted as the current stock price, and there is a downward trend of 75% space. In fact, all this looks very familiar, and it has also happened to tesla. At that time, countless analysts came out and said that no matter how to calculate (for example, Tesla produced all the cars in the world), Tesla's stock price could not support the stock price at that time. Years have passed, and Tesla's stock price is getting higher and higher, and none of the countless analysts who shouted short back then came out to admit their mistakes.I don't count the valuation of mRNA vaccine companies, nor do I recommend their stocks. Let me talk about the best case scenario of mRNA vaccines.1. COVID-19 vaccine becomes a flu vaccine, two shots a year.2. COVID-19 vaccine mutates faster, so we must keep modifying COVID-19 vaccine. In the future, there will be 4-price, 5-price COVID-19 vaccine and so on.3. Due to technological problems, the production of mRNA vaccines is still only mastered by a few countries and manufacturers.So why do mRNA vaccines have advantages over other COVID-19 vaccine? It is still because mRNA vaccines are the most promoted COVID-19 vaccine, so they also get the most data, so they will be more recognized in various approvals and uses. This is just like Tesla, as an electric vehicle, once it has a first-mover advantage, it will get all kinds of data, which will help its driverless development.Finally, we must emphasize the risk-humans have successfully developed a specific drug for COVID-19.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger's pre-market comments: How big is the imagination of mRNA vaccines?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger's pre-market comments: How big is the imagination of mRNA vaccines?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n老虎资讯综合 \n2021-08-13 21:21\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nPre-market observationU.S. stocks rose slightly before the market. (Related reading:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1150378564\" target=\"_blank\">Pre-market: \"US version of Pinduoduo\" plummeted 26%, TuSimple ushered in the lifting of the ban in the future</a>） The FDA officially announced the \"third shot\" for specific groups of people-how much imagination is there for mRNA vaccines?Eight hours ago, the FDA officially announced the third injection of COVID-19 vaccine (booster) for specific groups of people. The approved vaccines are two mRNA vaccines, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. People who need the third dose are people with impaired autoimmunity, such as organ transplant patients. For other groups of people, the FDA says that as long as the vaccination is completed, the third shot is not needed for the time being.The FDA statement doesn't say much, but it implies quite a few implied meanings.1. Acknowledging the need for a third shot, even if it is only given to certain groups of people, also acknowledges a basic fact: the more vaccines are given, the stronger the protection the human body can get. At present, all health departments in the world will not publicize this fact, because there are multiple considerations behind it. The most direct impact is that it will lead to further imbalance in global vaccine distribution. The World Health Organization has repeatedly asked all countries around the world not to get the \"third shot\", which is due to the consideration of poor countries. Israel, the fastest-moving country, has started the \"third shot\", and the United States is the second country. After the U.S. announcement, other European countries should follow suit soon. Once developed countries begin to enter the \"third shot\" state, there will be fewer vaccines that can be distributed to poor countries.2. The third injection implies that the effect of the vaccine will be weakened. Judging from this statement, the FDA is very reluctant to think in this direction, just saying that people with impaired immune systems need a third shot. According to Moderna's article published in Science yesterday, people who have received two doses of the vaccine still have antibodies 6 months later, but judging from the chart in the article, the number of antibodies is declining (below). So the next question that needs to be answered by the scientific community is, how far have antibodies dropped to require a third shot?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4297ea88e203d5b18b5ec320360b47e\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">3. The FDA's injection conditions for the \"third injection\" only say that the second injection can be started 28 days later. This attitude reflects that the FDA is very anxious to let specific groups of people get the third injection. The normal third dose of vaccine usually waits until the antibody in the body drops to a certain level. For example, the schedule of three cervical vaccines is 0 months, 1 month, and 6 months. The FDA's \"three-shot COVID-19 vaccine time\" schedule is 0 months, 1 month, and 2 months, which is very urgent. From Fauci's recent speeches, he very much hopes that the United States will push forward the third shot, but he dares not say it too obviously for fear of causing panic.4. With the \"third stitch\", will there be a \"fourth stitch\" and a \"fifth stitch\"? There should be. When we see \"crossing cases\" (that is, we still get sick after being vaccinated), and there are more and more \"crossing cases\", we should know that COVID-19 vaccine may be something that has accompanied human beings for a long time.Why do some vaccines vaccinated by humans last for life (leprosy gills), while others need to be injected all the year round (influenza)? According to a scientific document in 2007 (Duration of Human Immunity to CommonViral and Vaccine Antigens), the half-life of Measles antibodies in the body is as high as 3,000 years, and the half-life of Tetanus antibodies is also 11 years. The way to get antibodies is to get vaccinated or get sick yourself. As for why can measles antibodies persist in the body for a long time, but influenza antibodies can't? I personally don't think the scientific mechanism of this problem is very important, but we can observe(1) There are many influenza in virus mutation. We have only heard of 3-4 hepatitis viruses, but the influenza virus is updated in real time, so the influenza vaccine in the United States is updated almost every year. Currently, it is a quadrivalent flu vaccine.(2) Influenza virus can be transmitted not only in humans, but also in other animals. If there are too many hosts, there will be more space for transmission, and the mutation and crossing of viruses will be easier to occur. The common ones are swine flu and avian influenza.So when you see this, you will feel that influenza and COVID-19 have almost complete phenomena-there are many mutations and hosts, but COVID-19 is more infectious and harmful.So, how much room is there for mRNA vaccines?A few days ago, when mRNA vaccine stocks rose to the sky, BofA analysts immediately published a bearish analysis, believing that no matter how to calculate, the valuation of mRNA vaccine companies cannot be counted as the current stock price, and there is a downward trend of 75% space. In fact, all this looks very familiar, and it has also happened to tesla. At that time, countless analysts came out and said that no matter how to calculate (for example, Tesla produced all the cars in the world), Tesla's stock price could not support the stock price at that time. Years have passed, and Tesla's stock price is getting higher and higher, and none of the countless analysts who shouted short back then came out to admit their mistakes.I don't count the valuation of mRNA vaccine companies, nor do I recommend their stocks. Let me talk about the best case scenario of mRNA vaccines.1. COVID-19 vaccine becomes a flu vaccine, two shots a year.2. COVID-19 vaccine mutates faster, so we must keep modifying COVID-19 vaccine. In the future, there will be 4-price, 5-price COVID-19 vaccine and so on.3. Due to technological problems, the production of mRNA vaccines is still only mastered by a few countries and manufacturers.So why do mRNA vaccines have advantages over other COVID-19 vaccine? It is still because mRNA vaccines are the most promoted COVID-19 vaccine, so they also get the most data, so they will be more recognized in various approvals and uses. This is just like Tesla, as an electric vehicle, once it has a first-mover advantage, it will get all kinds of data, which will help its driverless development.Finally, we must emphasize the risk-humans have successfully developed a specific drug for COVID-19.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a7460642435b6f0a00a215a4385bc5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114043674","content_text":"盘前观察\n美股盘前小涨。（相关阅读：盘前：“美版拼多多”暴跌26%, 图森未来迎来解禁）\n FDA正式宣布对特定人群打“第三针”——mRNA疫苗的想象空间到底有多大？\n8个小时前，FDA正式宣布对特定人群开打新冠疫苗第三针（booster）。获批的疫苗还是两款mRNA疫苗，Pfizer-BioNTech和Moderna。需要接种第三针的人群是自身免疫力受损的人群，比方说器官移植的病人。对于其他人群，FDA的说法是只要接种完成暂时不需要第三针。\nFDA声明的内容不多，但隐含的意义不少。\n 1，承认需要接种第三针，尽管只是给某些特定人群，也就承认了一个基本事实：疫苗打得越多，人体能够得到的保护就越强。目前全球所有的卫生部门，都不会宣传这个事实，因为这后面有多重考量。最直接的影响，就是会导致全球的疫苗分配进一步不平衡。世界卫生组织一再要求全球所有国家不要打“第三针”，这是出于对贫穷国家的考虑。行动最快的以色列已经开打“第三针”，美国是第二个国家。美国宣布之后，其它欧洲国家应该会很快跟进。发达国家一旦开始进入“第三针”状态，那么能够分给贫穷国家的疫苗就更少了。\n 2，开打第三针，也就暗示了疫苗的效果会减弱。从这次的声明来看，FDA非常不愿意民众朝着这个方向上去思考，只是说免疫系统受损的人需要开打第三针。根据Moderna昨天发表在《科学》上的文章来看，接种过两针疫苗的人群，6个月后依旧有抗体，但从文章的图表来看，抗体的数量在下降（下图）。所以下一个需要科学界回答的问题是，抗体下降到什么程度需要注射第三针？3，FDA对“第三针”的注射条件，只是说第二针28天之后就可以开打，这个态度反映了FDA非常着急让特定人群打第三针。正常的第三针疫苗，一般会等到体内抗体降低到某一个程度的时候开打，比方说3针宫颈疫苗的时间表是0个月，1个月，6个月。FDA的“三针新冠疫苗时间”的时间表是0个月，1个月，2个月，非常急促。从Fauci最近的几次讲话来说，他心中非常希望全美推进第三针，但是又不敢说得太明显害怕造成恐慌。\n 4，有了“第三针”，是不是还会有“第四针”和“第五针”？应该会有。当我们看到“穿越病例”（即打了疫苗后仍旧得病），而且“穿越病例”越来越多的时候，就应该知道新冠疫苗可能是长期伴随人类一生的东西。\n 为什么人类接种的疫苗有的一针保终身（麻风腮），而有的疫苗则需要常年注射（流感）？根据2007年的一篇科学文献（Duration of Humoral Immunity to Common \nViral and Vaccine Antigens）来看，麻疹（Measles）抗体在体内存在的半衰期高达3,000年，破伤风（Tetanus）抗体存在的半衰期，也有11年。获得抗体的办法，要不就是打疫苗要不就是自己得病。至于为何麻疹的抗体可以在体内长存，但流感抗体则不能？我个人觉得这个问题的科学机理并不十分重要，但是我们能够观察到\n （1）流感病毒变异多。我们只听过3-4种肝炎病毒，但是流感病毒是实时更新，所以美国的流感疫苗也几乎是每年都在更新，目前是4价疫苗（quadrivalent flu vaccine）。\n（2）流感病毒不仅会在人传染，还会在其它动物传染。宿主太多，传播空间就更大，病毒的变异和穿越就更容易发生，常见的是猪流感和禽流感。\n 所以看到这里，就会觉得流感和新冠有着几乎完全的现象——变异多、宿主多，只不过新冠的传染性和危害性更强。\n 那么，mRNA疫苗的空间到底有多大？\n 前几天，在mRNA疫苗股票涨到天上的时候，BofA的分析师立刻发表了一篇看空的分析，认为怎么算，mRNA疫苗公司的估值都算不到当下的股价，向下有75%的空间。其实这一切非常眼熟，也曾经发生在tesla身上。当年无数分析师出来说，怎么算（比方说特斯拉把全世界的汽车都生产了），特斯拉的股价都不能支撑当时的股价。多年过去了，特斯拉的股价越来越高，而当年无数喊空的分析师，没有一个出来承认自己的错误。\n 我不算mRNA疫苗公司的估值，也不推荐其股票，我来说说mRNA疫苗的最好的情况。\n 1，新冠疫苗变成流感疫苗，一年两针。\n2，新冠疫苗变异更快，所以要不停修改新冠疫苗，以后会有4价、5价新冠疫苗等等。\n3，因为工艺问题，mRNA疫苗的生产仍旧只有少数国家和厂家掌握。\n 那为何mRNA疫苗就比其它新冠疫苗有优势呢？还是在于mRNA疫苗是推广得最多的新冠疫苗，所以得到的数据也是最多的，所以在各类批准和使用上得到的认可度会更高。这点就像特斯拉作为电动车，一旦有了先发优势，就得到各种各样的数据，有助于它的无人驾驶的发展。\n 最后一定要强调风险——人类成功研发出某种新冠特效药。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121908,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5546149,"commentId":"5546149","gmtCreate":1629124758995,"gmtModify":1663232457333,"authorId":3581744559890119,"author":{"id":3581744559890119,"idStr":"3581744559890119","authorId":3581744559890119,"name":"ECSY18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c82b687f17b46a946636efe965fa74e2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894774357,"objectIdStr":"894774357","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"I 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