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hintuang
2021-08-12

Going back to Hong Kong stocks today, why is Li Auto worthless?

理想汽车-W港股暗盘破发，股价一度跌4%，截止收盘报跌1.78%。 2015——是80后李想第三次创业，创立理想汽车的年份，同时也是理想汽车港交所上市的股票代码。从1999年起，港交所开始推行“股份

Going back to Hong Kong stocks today, why is Li Auto worthless?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":895621277,"tweetId":"895621277","gmtCreate":1628740845299,"gmtModify":1676529838802,"author":{"id":4087770624341400,"idStr":"4087770624341400","authorId":4087770624341400,"authorIdStr":"4087770624341400","name":"hintuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/659d9777dc4ea3d38a46980a74ae3d8c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","text":"??","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895621277","repostId":1137984871,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137984871","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1628727934,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137984871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 08:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Going back to Hong Kong stocks today, why is Li Auto worthless?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137984871","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"理想汽车-W港股暗盘破发，股价一度跌4%，截止收盘报跌1.78%。\n2015——是80后李想第三次创业，创立理想汽车的年份，同时也是理想汽车港交所上市的股票代码。\n从1999年起，港交所开始推行“股份","content":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Hong Kong stocks broke in the black market, and the stock price once fell 4%, and as of the close, it was down 1.78%.2015--is the third time that Li Xiang started his business after 1980s, the year when he founded Li Auto, and it is also the stock code listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Li Auto.Since 1999, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented the \"Stock Code Charity Lottery Arrangement Scheme\". As long as you donate to the Community Chest of Hong Kong, you can choose your own stock code. Li Auto insiders told Tiger Sniff that the company did choose this number by donating money. \"2015, I really returned to my original heart.\"On August 12, Li Auto officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.The announcement shows that Li Auto will publicly offer 10 million Class A ordinary shares in Hong Kong, accounting for 10% of the global offering. Based on the offering price of HK $118 per share, the Hong Kong stock IPO raised approximately HK $11.55 billion. The public offering stage<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Got 5.5 times subscription.In contrast, those who just landed on the Hong Kong stock market a month ago<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>, the financing subscription multiple is as high as 14.73 times, and the total financing amount is as high as 14 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about 11.652 billion yuan.It can be seen that the market is too calm about Li Auto's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.Li Auto, which has been established six years ago but only sells one car, even if its sales in July exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng has become the number one new force, but the capital market does not pay for the \"ideal\". As of the close of U.S. stocks on August 10, Nio's market value was approximately US $72.46 billion, XPeng's market value was US $36.06 billion, and Li Auto's market value was only US $29.15 billion.\"Whether the product is done well or not often has little to do with the secondary market. If the product is done well, the secondary market may not buy it. Capital values imagination. The launch of Li Auto's pure electric models is the key node.\"An investment person told Huxiu.Li Auto is not only short of money and new cars, but also short of good stories.1. It's just an accident to build an explosion?Li Xiang, born in 1981, is less sophisticated than Li Bin and He XPeng, two post-70s entrepreneurs. In the face of public opinion events, Li Xiang often speaks outspoken.But when it comes to making products and enterprises, Li Xiang can always strike later and make a blockbuster. In 2005, Li Xiang founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>At that time, there were already many mature automobile websites on the market, including Bitauto.com, founded by Li Bin in 2000. It only took Li Xiang 3 years to make Autohome the number one in the industry.In 2015, when Li Xiang founded Li Auto, Nio and XPeng had already started the run. In the early days of starting a business, Li Xiang and his team devoted their energy and resources to the first product, the micro pure electric car SEV. However, after more than two years of R&D and testing work, the project had to be stopped due to policy reasons.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b0f0f16d204bdc81722ffc12d3b47b1\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SEV displayed in the lobby of Li Auto headquartersAlthough the abrupt end of the project did not cause the team to fall apart, the pace of product development and mass production delivery lagged far behind the other two new forces. It was not until October 2018 that Li Auto's first product, Ideal ONE, arrived late. At that time, Nio had delivered ES8 models on a large scale and successfully completed the company's listing on the New York Stock Exchange.After two years of crawling and rolling, the three new forces have all come out with their own unique styles. Nio known as \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>The \"style\" service system is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and XPeng Automobile uses technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Impress consumers with chemical experience. However, the impression Li Auto left to everyone is only on the ideal ONE product.On August 1, Li Auto announced July delivery data showing that 8,589 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered in July, a year-on-year increase of 251.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.4%. In this way, Li Auto surpassed Nio's 7,931 units and XPeng's 8,040 units delivered in one fell swoop, becoming the number one sales volume of new car manufacturers in July.In the total new energy sales list in July, Ideal ONE also surpassed Tesla Model 3, BYD Han and other models, ranking fourth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46df393e3752fc3e09e54edbfe458c6a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1096\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The reason why it can create an explosion is accidental.Zhang Hui, head of Li Auto's strategy department, gave the answer: \"If you look at it from Li Xiang's own point of view, it will definitely succeed. Because his methodologies were available before (in car home)-Delineate a very, very clear user group, and then build products for this group of users.”Different from Nio and XPeng, they face the field of pure electric vehicles<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Ideal ONE has taken a different approach to the \"shortcut\" of extended-range electric vehicles. It is not limited to the pure electric segment, but puts itself in the field of fuel vehicles with a larger market scale. On top of this, Ideal ONE builds products aiming at the needs and pain points of home users, and finally continues to steal users from traditional car companies with cost performance and product strength.However, Zhang Hui also admitted that from the perspective of the 2025 strategy, if we do it in the same way, the subsequent results will become accidental.\"We expect mid-2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The market sales volume is 8 million vehicles, and we want to achieve a 20% market share and 1.6 million vehicles sold. Are there still so many user groups with unmet needs in this market? Others didn't see it, just we found it? It's almost impossible. \"Zhang Hui also said:\"We must move from the accidental success of Ideal ONE to more inevitable successes in order to achieve the goal of 2025.\"In fact, Li Auto's 2025 strategic goal is to become the number one smart electric vehicle company in China-this goal comes from an internal letter issued by Li Auto CEO Li Xiang in February this year. It is mentioned that the company's strategic goal in 2025 is to occupy 20% of the market share in China, ranking first in the Chinese market.Investors are still optimistic about the Flag set by Li Xiang. Wang Huadong, partner of Matrix Partners China, said: \"I hope this Hong Kong stock listing and financing will help the company achieve its strategic goals in 2025 as soon as possible and continue to promote the continuous development of new energy vehicles.\"However, it is difficult to realize this \"grand dream\" with a single technical route and a single model.Second, the shortcut taken will have to be paid back sooner or laterAccording to the prospectus, the new story Li Auto told to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this time is roughly divided into three key points: the next generation of new extended-range models, new pure electric models, and L4 level autonomous driving capabilities.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad5012845832397e33c0cc9d560d056\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Li Auto HKEx ProspectusWhether it is the capital market or ordinary consumers, what they are most looking forward to is that Li Auto can enter the pure electric market and create a domestic pure electric vehicle that can be called a hit like the ideal ONE.Of course, this is also one of the important reasons why Ideal landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds.Ideal wrote in the prospectus that 20% of the net proceeds will provide funds for the research and development of high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology, platform and future models. In contrast, 15% of the funds raised will be used for autonomous driving research and development, and 10% will be used for extended-range platform development. Judging from the proportion of investment funds, Ideal is making pure electric vehicles, and this time it is serious.Specifically, Li Auto's pure electric technology is divided into several core elements: high-rate battery packs, high-voltage platforms, thermal management systems, and high-power charging networks.Pure electric + fast charging + self-built charging network, does it sound familiar? That's right, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng started on this road a few years ago.Now, Li Auto wants to take this road again.Li Auto HKEx ProspectusIn the prospectus, Ideal also mentioned: \"With the continuous advancement of next-generation electric vehicle technology, we believe this is a good time to introduce high-voltage pure electric platforms and future high-voltage pure electric models.\"So is it a good time to make pure electricity now?From the perspective of the industrial chain, the reduction in the cost of power batteries will narrow the cost difference between pure electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. In the competition at the same price, pure electric vehicles will have more product strength advantages.Take the Nio ES8 as an example. For the 70-kilowatt-hour battery originally used in 2018, the cost of the photovoltaic cell pack was as high as US $12,600, equivalent to RMB 82,000. Not only is the battery expensive, but the battery life is also poor. The NEDC battery life of the 2018 Nio ES8 is only 425 kilometers. In fact, its usage and high-speed performance are further compromised.As for the latest Nio 100-degree battery pack, based on this year's cost price, a 100-degree battery pack costs about US $12,300, equivalent to RMB 80,000, but this makes the NEDC battery life of the 2020 Nio ES8 reach 580 kilometers.In other words, similar battery costs used to only achieve a battery life of 400 kilometers, but now they can easily achieve nearly 600 kilometers.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e5a992b903c2c85ec621235f1ff246\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">If we say,At that time, Ideal ONE used pure electricity from the beginning, and there was a high probability that it would fail.Eric Ries proposed an MVP (Minimum Viable Product) concept in \"Lean Entrepreneurship Practice\", which refers to running through the entire model through one product when the market is uncertain. If it succeeds, invest resources to enter the market on a large scale, and if it fails, adjust direction quickly. Ideal ONE, this is what it does.Because, for medium and large battery-powered SUVs, the battery system accounts for about 35% of the material cost. Either you sell it more expensive, or you sacrifice battery capacity. Before 2018, at that stage when policies and markets were unclear, Li Auto could only adopt the \"hybrid\" route of small batteries + fuel generators to successfully survive the dangerous period and wait until battery costs were reduced.According to forecasts, with the blessing of new chemical materials, new manufacturing technologies and simplified packaging design, the average price per kilowatt hour of batteries is expected to reach US $85 in 2025. At that stage, high-endurance and low-cost batteries will allow electric vehicles and fuel vehicles to compete fairly.According to the plan, Ideal will launch an extended-range full-size luxury smart SUV in 2022 and two other extended-range SUVs in 2023. From 2023, at least two pure electric models will be launched every year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb07d82d157a1ce04e97ab13a1d9fb4a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Li Auto HKEx ProspectusHowever, it should be noted that the reduction in battery costs benefits everyone. At present, the biggest dilemma of Ideal is that many new products have not been officially unveiled, and the platformization and scale capabilities have not been verified.In the early days, in order to quickly introduce Ideal ONE to the market, it was a product built on a relatively independent extended-range platform, let alone a pure electric platform. This means that it may not be able to quickly iterate new products, expand market size, and reduce marginal costs like Volkswagen's MEB pure electric platform.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9904b42cfb741c93150487ca9dc46\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">XPeng Automobile Hong Kong Stock Exchange ProspectusEven the current XPeng vehicles already have certain platform capabilities.XPeng has two platforms, Edward and David. The former is responsible for deriving mid-to-high-end cars, while the latter is responsible for mid-to low-end cars. That's why XPeng was able to launch the facelifted G3 and the new P5 less than a year after the launch of the P7. By next year, XPeng will launch a brand-new medium and large SUV product.Including Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, Nio's ES8, ES6, and EC6 also have certain platform capabilities. At least, they have achieved the functions of sharing parts, reducing costs and increasing efficiency on multiple models.Finally, the most fatal thing is that the ideal R&D investment base is the lowest among the \"three idiots\".According to the financial report, for the whole year of 2020, Li Auto's R&D expenditure totaled 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while R&D investment accounted for 11.8% of total revenue; Nio's research and development expenses during the same period were 2.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%, accounting for 15.3% of total revenue. XPeng's annual research and development expenses were 1.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, accounting for 29.5% of total revenue.The high investment in research and development has enabled Nio to make great strides in products and technology. The Nio ET7, which will be delivered early next year, is the product of Nio's second-generation platform NP2. At that time, the debut of 150kWh solid-state batteries set off a wave of solid-state battery investment in the capital market. XPeng's new model P5 uses a dual lidar solution to bring the level of autonomous driving hardware to a higher level.On the contrary, various fancy technologies mentioned in Li Auto's prospectus, such as 4C fast-charging high-rate battery packs, high-voltage platforms based on third-generation SiC semiconductor materials, thermal management systems for carbon dioxide refrigerants, high-performance fast-charging networks, L4-level autonomous driving capabilities, etc. At present, it is only at the stage of \"armchair strategist\".Again, all the shortcuts you have taken, fate will force you to take the same path again.3. If you don't cut \"leeks\", how much discount will you get in the imagination space?Compared with selling cars, capital prefers to listen to the story of the \"second growth curve\".In this regard, Tesla has a degree of control. As of the third quarter of 2020, Tesla's software cash revenue has accumulated more than US $1 billion. According to the forecast of Essence Securities, Tesla's software business revenue in 2025 is expected to be nearly 7 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue and contributing 25% of the gross profit of the automotive business.As we all know, Tesla's model is to sell hardware products at cost price as much as possible to gain more market share, and then use data advantages to develop software functions such as autonomous driving that can be upgraded on a large scale, and finally use one-time purchases or subscriptions to earn software payment money from users.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Adam Jonas recently released a report trying to value Tesla's software-as-a-service business: \"The value of Tesla's recurring software revenue may exceed the value of its hardware business. Over time, we expect Tesla to launch a wide range of services to users and disclose more financial information.In our view, this shift will help drive stock revaluations.”However, for the software payment model, a sharp weapon for valuation growth, Li Auto CEO Li Xiang showed a relatively conservative attitude in previous interviews:\"We can't block it and say that we must not provide software services and do not need this revenue.\"At present, Li Auto's assisted driving function is included in the car price as standard, and there is no additional charge required. But according to Li Xiang, the reason why software payment is not charged now is because the market size is not large enough, and it is too early to talk about software subscription revenue.This statement is not unreasonable, but both XPeng and Nio have tasted sweet fruit for the first time.For example, XPeng Motor's financial report shows that the revenue of its autonomous driving system XPILOT3.0 software package in 2020 was 50 million yuan, and it reached 30 million in the first quarter of this year, which has exceeded half of last year's annual revenue.On Nio's side, the gross profit margin reached an astonishing 19.48% in the first quarter of this year, which is much higher than the ideal 17.26% and XPeng's 11.18%. The most direct reason is the help of two subscription-based payments, battery rental and autonomous driving software packages.But at present, the objective difficulty is that the implementation time of higher-level autonomous driving functions is still unclear.\"We believe it will still take 5-10 years for large-scale mass production of L4 unmanned vehicles for open roads. It needs to be supplemented in terms of road construction, improvement of regulations and laws, etc.\"Zhang Xiaodan, brand marketing director of Uisee Technology, told Tiger Sniff.Therefore, at this stage, most new forces are still in the recruitment stage. In addition to promoting new R&D projects, it is more to prevent talents from flowing into other car companies.According to the U.S. stock prospectus, as of the beginning of 2020, Li Auto had a total of 2,628 employees. But by the beginning of 2021, according to the Hong Kong stock prospectus, the ideal team has rapidly expanded to 4,900 people, a growth rate of more than 86%.But the fastest growing job is not R&D personnel, but sales. At the beginning of 2020, Li Auto's R&D team had 1,005 people. By the beginning of 2021, the number of R&D personnel would reach 1,633, accounting for 33.3% of the total number. In contrast, the number of ideal marketing and sales staff has rapidly increased from 475 at the beginning of 2020 to 2,166.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eafb2647e034bd465b1dca1013709d12\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">It is true that ideals sell well, but it is also true that the autonomous driving function is \"lagging behind\".When the 2021 Ideal ONE was released at the end of May, NOA automatic navigation assisted driving was regarded as ONE of the promotional points, but until today, this function has not been pushed to users. It has been half a year since XPeng launched a similar NGP automatic navigation assisted driving function on January 26 this year. Nio even pushed the NOP pilot assisted driving function to users in October last year.Therefore, either he is holding back a big move, or he has no \"real kung fu\" yet.Write at the endAccording to the prospectus document, Li Auto used nearly 80 pages to describe the 12 risk factors faced by the company, one of which is about the risk of \"forced delisting\", which is worth pondering.For the new car-making forces, holding a large amount of personal information of car owners and domestic road traffic information, whether it is accepting accounting papers review or major information disclosure, involves a thorny issue: the possibility of leakage of important data and personal information..Not long ago, the prospectus of XPeng Motor's Hong Kong stock IPO also specifically mentioned the delisting risk warning. Then, under the background of data supervision, it is understandable that the market is indifferent to Li Auto's listing.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Going back to Hong Kong stocks today, why is Li Auto worthless?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoing back to Hong Kong stocks today, why is Li Auto worthless?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n虎嗅APP \n2021-08-12 08:25\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Hong Kong stocks broke in the black market, and the stock price once fell 4%, and as of the close, it was down 1.78%.2015--is the third time that Li Xiang started his business after 1980s, the year when he founded Li Auto, and it is also the stock code listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Li Auto.Since 1999, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented the \"Stock Code Charity Lottery Arrangement Scheme\". As long as you donate to the Community Chest of Hong Kong, you can choose your own stock code. Li Auto insiders told Tiger Sniff that the company did choose this number by donating money. \"2015, I really returned to my original heart.\"On August 12, Li Auto officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.The announcement shows that Li Auto will publicly offer 10 million Class A ordinary shares in Hong Kong, accounting for 10% of the global offering. Based on the offering price of HK $118 per share, the Hong Kong stock IPO raised approximately HK $11.55 billion. The public offering stage<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Got 5.5 times subscription.In contrast, those who just landed on the Hong Kong stock market a month ago<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>, the financing subscription multiple is as high as 14.73 times, and the total financing amount is as high as 14 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about 11.652 billion yuan.It can be seen that the market is too calm about Li Auto's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.Li Auto, which has been established six years ago but only sells one car, even if its sales in July exceeded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, XPeng has become the number one new force, but the capital market does not pay for the \"ideal\". As of the close of U.S. stocks on August 10, Nio's market value was approximately US $72.46 billion, XPeng's market value was US $36.06 billion, and Li Auto's market value was only US $29.15 billion.\"Whether the product is done well or not often has little to do with the secondary market. If the product is done well, the secondary market may not buy it. Capital values imagination. The launch of Li Auto's pure electric models is the key node.\"An investment person told Huxiu.Li Auto is not only short of money and new cars, but also short of good stories.1. It's just an accident to build an explosion?Li Xiang, born in 1981, is less sophisticated than Li Bin and He XPeng, two post-70s entrepreneurs. In the face of public opinion events, Li Xiang often speaks outspoken.But when it comes to making products and enterprises, Li Xiang can always strike later and make a blockbuster. In 2005, Li Xiang founded<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>At that time, there were already many mature automobile websites on the market, including Bitauto.com, founded by Li Bin in 2000. It only took Li Xiang 3 years to make Autohome the number one in the industry.In 2015, when Li Xiang founded Li Auto, Nio and XPeng had already started the run. In the early days of starting a business, Li Xiang and his team devoted their energy and resources to the first product, the micro pure electric car SEV. However, after more than two years of R&D and testing work, the project had to be stopped due to policy reasons.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b0f0f16d204bdc81722ffc12d3b47b1\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">SEV displayed in the lobby of Li Auto headquartersAlthough the abrupt end of the project did not cause the team to fall apart, the pace of product development and mass production delivery lagged far behind the other two new forces. It was not until October 2018 that Li Auto's first product, Ideal ONE, arrived late. At that time, Nio had delivered ES8 models on a large scale and successfully completed the company's listing on the New York Stock Exchange.After two years of crawling and rolling, the three new forces have all come out with their own unique styles. Nio known as \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>The \"style\" service system is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and XPeng Automobile uses technology<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Impress consumers with chemical experience. However, the impression Li Auto left to everyone is only on the ideal ONE product.On August 1, Li Auto announced July delivery data showing that 8,589 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered in July, a year-on-year increase of 251.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.4%. In this way, Li Auto surpassed Nio's 7,931 units and XPeng's 8,040 units delivered in one fell swoop, becoming the number one sales volume of new car manufacturers in July.In the total new energy sales list in July, Ideal ONE also surpassed Tesla Model 3, BYD Han and other models, ranking fourth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46df393e3752fc3e09e54edbfe458c6a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1096\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The reason why it can create an explosion is accidental.Zhang Hui, head of Li Auto's strategy department, gave the answer: \"If you look at it from Li Xiang's own point of view, it will definitely succeed. Because his methodologies were available before (in car home)-Delineate a very, very clear user group, and then build products for this group of users.”Different from Nio and XPeng, they face the field of pure electric vehicles<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Ideal ONE has taken a different approach to the \"shortcut\" of extended-range electric vehicles. It is not limited to the pure electric segment, but puts itself in the field of fuel vehicles with a larger market scale. On top of this, Ideal ONE builds products aiming at the needs and pain points of home users, and finally continues to steal users from traditional car companies with cost performance and product strength.However, Zhang Hui also admitted that from the perspective of the 2025 strategy, if we do it in the same way, the subsequent results will become accidental.\"We expect mid-2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The market sales volume is 8 million vehicles, and we want to achieve a 20% market share and 1.6 million vehicles sold. Are there still so many user groups with unmet needs in this market? Others didn't see it, just we found it? It's almost impossible. \"Zhang Hui also said:\"We must move from the accidental success of Ideal ONE to more inevitable successes in order to achieve the goal of 2025.\"In fact, Li Auto's 2025 strategic goal is to become the number one smart electric vehicle company in China-this goal comes from an internal letter issued by Li Auto CEO Li Xiang in February this year. It is mentioned that the company's strategic goal in 2025 is to occupy 20% of the market share in China, ranking first in the Chinese market.Investors are still optimistic about the Flag set by Li Xiang. Wang Huadong, partner of Matrix Partners China, said: \"I hope this Hong Kong stock listing and financing will help the company achieve its strategic goals in 2025 as soon as possible and continue to promote the continuous development of new energy vehicles.\"However, it is difficult to realize this \"grand dream\" with a single technical route and a single model.Second, the shortcut taken will have to be paid back sooner or laterAccording to the prospectus, the new story Li Auto told to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this time is roughly divided into three key points: the next generation of new extended-range models, new pure electric models, and L4 level autonomous driving capabilities.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad5012845832397e33c0cc9d560d056\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Li Auto HKEx ProspectusWhether it is the capital market or ordinary consumers, what they are most looking forward to is that Li Auto can enter the pure electric market and create a domestic pure electric vehicle that can be called a hit like the ideal ONE.Of course, this is also one of the important reasons why Ideal landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds.Ideal wrote in the prospectus that 20% of the net proceeds will provide funds for the research and development of high-voltage pure electric vehicle technology, platform and future models. In contrast, 15% of the funds raised will be used for autonomous driving research and development, and 10% will be used for extended-range platform development. Judging from the proportion of investment funds, Ideal is making pure electric vehicles, and this time it is serious.Specifically, Li Auto's pure electric technology is divided into several core elements: high-rate battery packs, high-voltage platforms, thermal management systems, and high-power charging networks.Pure electric + fast charging + self-built charging network, does it sound familiar? That's right, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng started on this road a few years ago.Now, Li Auto wants to take this road again.Li Auto HKEx ProspectusIn the prospectus, Ideal also mentioned: \"With the continuous advancement of next-generation electric vehicle technology, we believe this is a good time to introduce high-voltage pure electric platforms and future high-voltage pure electric models.\"So is it a good time to make pure electricity now?From the perspective of the industrial chain, the reduction in the cost of power batteries will narrow the cost difference between pure electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. In the competition at the same price, pure electric vehicles will have more product strength advantages.Take the Nio ES8 as an example. For the 70-kilowatt-hour battery originally used in 2018, the cost of the photovoltaic cell pack was as high as US $12,600, equivalent to RMB 82,000. Not only is the battery expensive, but the battery life is also poor. The NEDC battery life of the 2018 Nio ES8 is only 425 kilometers. In fact, its usage and high-speed performance are further compromised.As for the latest Nio 100-degree battery pack, based on this year's cost price, a 100-degree battery pack costs about US $12,300, equivalent to RMB 80,000, but this makes the NEDC battery life of the 2020 Nio ES8 reach 580 kilometers.In other words, similar battery costs used to only achieve a battery life of 400 kilometers, but now they can easily achieve nearly 600 kilometers.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e5a992b903c2c85ec621235f1ff246\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">If we say,At that time, Ideal ONE used pure electricity from the beginning, and there was a high probability that it would fail.Eric Ries proposed an MVP (Minimum Viable Product) concept in \"Lean Entrepreneurship Practice\", which refers to running through the entire model through one product when the market is uncertain. If it succeeds, invest resources to enter the market on a large scale, and if it fails, adjust direction quickly. Ideal ONE, this is what it does.Because, for medium and large battery-powered SUVs, the battery system accounts for about 35% of the material cost. Either you sell it more expensive, or you sacrifice battery capacity. Before 2018, at that stage when policies and markets were unclear, Li Auto could only adopt the \"hybrid\" route of small batteries + fuel generators to successfully survive the dangerous period and wait until battery costs were reduced.According to forecasts, with the blessing of new chemical materials, new manufacturing technologies and simplified packaging design, the average price per kilowatt hour of batteries is expected to reach US $85 in 2025. At that stage, high-endurance and low-cost batteries will allow electric vehicles and fuel vehicles to compete fairly.According to the plan, Ideal will launch an extended-range full-size luxury smart SUV in 2022 and two other extended-range SUVs in 2023. From 2023, at least two pure electric models will be launched every year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb07d82d157a1ce04e97ab13a1d9fb4a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Li Auto HKEx ProspectusHowever, it should be noted that the reduction in battery costs benefits everyone. At present, the biggest dilemma of Ideal is that many new products have not been officially unveiled, and the platformization and scale capabilities have not been verified.In the early days, in order to quickly introduce Ideal ONE to the market, it was a product built on a relatively independent extended-range platform, let alone a pure electric platform. This means that it may not be able to quickly iterate new products, expand market size, and reduce marginal costs like Volkswagen's MEB pure electric platform.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9904b42cfb741c93150487ca9dc46\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">XPeng Automobile Hong Kong Stock Exchange ProspectusEven the current XPeng vehicles already have certain platform capabilities.XPeng has two platforms, Edward and David. The former is responsible for deriving mid-to-high-end cars, while the latter is responsible for mid-to low-end cars. That's why XPeng was able to launch the facelifted G3 and the new P5 less than a year after the launch of the P7. By next year, XPeng will launch a brand-new medium and large SUV product.Including Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, Nio's ES8, ES6, and EC6 also have certain platform capabilities. At least, they have achieved the functions of sharing parts, reducing costs and increasing efficiency on multiple models.Finally, the most fatal thing is that the ideal R&D investment base is the lowest among the \"three idiots\".According to the financial report, for the whole year of 2020, Li Auto's R&D expenditure totaled 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while R&D investment accounted for 11.8% of total revenue; Nio's research and development expenses during the same period were 2.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%, accounting for 15.3% of total revenue. XPeng's annual research and development expenses were 1.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, accounting for 29.5% of total revenue.The high investment in research and development has enabled Nio to make great strides in products and technology. The Nio ET7, which will be delivered early next year, is the product of Nio's second-generation platform NP2. At that time, the debut of 150kWh solid-state batteries set off a wave of solid-state battery investment in the capital market. XPeng's new model P5 uses a dual lidar solution to bring the level of autonomous driving hardware to a higher level.On the contrary, various fancy technologies mentioned in Li Auto's prospectus, such as 4C fast-charging high-rate battery packs, high-voltage platforms based on third-generation SiC semiconductor materials, thermal management systems for carbon dioxide refrigerants, high-performance fast-charging networks, L4-level autonomous driving capabilities, etc. At present, it is only at the stage of \"armchair strategist\".Again, all the shortcuts you have taken, fate will force you to take the same path again.3. If you don't cut \"leeks\", how much discount will you get in the imagination space?Compared with selling cars, capital prefers to listen to the story of the \"second growth curve\".In this regard, Tesla has a degree of control. As of the third quarter of 2020, Tesla's software cash revenue has accumulated more than US $1 billion. According to the forecast of Essence Securities, Tesla's software business revenue in 2025 is expected to be nearly 7 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue and contributing 25% of the gross profit of the automotive business.As we all know, Tesla's model is to sell hardware products at cost price as much as possible to gain more market share, and then use data advantages to develop software functions such as autonomous driving that can be upgraded on a large scale, and finally use one-time purchases or subscriptions to earn software payment money from users.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Adam Jonas recently released a report trying to value Tesla's software-as-a-service business: \"The value of Tesla's recurring software revenue may exceed the value of its hardware business. Over time, we expect Tesla to launch a wide range of services to users and disclose more financial information.In our view, this shift will help drive stock revaluations.”However, for the software payment model, a sharp weapon for valuation growth, Li Auto CEO Li Xiang showed a relatively conservative attitude in previous interviews:\"We can't block it and say that we must not provide software services and do not need this revenue.\"At present, Li Auto's assisted driving function is included in the car price as standard, and there is no additional charge required. But according to Li Xiang, the reason why software payment is not charged now is because the market size is not large enough, and it is too early to talk about software subscription revenue.This statement is not unreasonable, but both XPeng and Nio have tasted sweet fruit for the first time.For example, XPeng Motor's financial report shows that the revenue of its autonomous driving system XPILOT3.0 software package in 2020 was 50 million yuan, and it reached 30 million in the first quarter of this year, which has exceeded half of last year's annual revenue.On Nio's side, the gross profit margin reached an astonishing 19.48% in the first quarter of this year, which is much higher than the ideal 17.26% and XPeng's 11.18%. The most direct reason is the help of two subscription-based payments, battery rental and autonomous driving software packages.But at present, the objective difficulty is that the implementation time of higher-level autonomous driving functions is still unclear.\"We believe it will still take 5-10 years for large-scale mass production of L4 unmanned vehicles for open roads. It needs to be supplemented in terms of road construction, improvement of regulations and laws, etc.\"Zhang Xiaodan, brand marketing director of Uisee Technology, told Tiger Sniff.Therefore, at this stage, most new forces are still in the recruitment stage. In addition to promoting new R&D projects, it is more to prevent talents from flowing into other car companies.According to the U.S. stock prospectus, as of the beginning of 2020, Li Auto had a total of 2,628 employees. But by the beginning of 2021, according to the Hong Kong stock prospectus, the ideal team has rapidly expanded to 4,900 people, a growth rate of more than 86%.But the fastest growing job is not R&D personnel, but sales. At the beginning of 2020, Li Auto's R&D team had 1,005 people. By the beginning of 2021, the number of R&D personnel would reach 1,633, accounting for 33.3% of the total number. In contrast, the number of ideal marketing and sales staff has rapidly increased from 475 at the beginning of 2020 to 2,166.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eafb2647e034bd465b1dca1013709d12\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">It is true that ideals sell well, but it is also true that the autonomous driving function is \"lagging behind\".When the 2021 Ideal ONE was released at the end of May, NOA automatic navigation assisted driving was regarded as ONE of the promotional points, but until today, this function has not been pushed to users. It has been half a year since XPeng launched a similar NGP automatic navigation assisted driving function on January 26 this year. Nio even pushed the NOP pilot assisted driving function to users in October last year.Therefore, either he is holding back a big move, or he has no \"real kung fu\" yet.Write at the endAccording to the prospectus document, Li Auto used nearly 80 pages to describe the 12 risk factors faced by the company, one of which is about the risk of \"forced delisting\", which is worth pondering.For the new car-making forces, holding a large amount of personal information of car owners and domestic road traffic information, whether it is accepting accounting papers review or major information disclosure, involves a thorny issue: the possibility of leakage of important data and personal information..Not long ago, the prospectus of XPeng Motor's Hong Kong stock IPO also specifically mentioned the delisting risk warning. Then, under the background of data supervision, it is understandable that the market is indifferent to Li Auto's listing.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42da6ba9c55fef51bd537aaa99995a27","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137984871","content_text":"理想汽车-W港股暗盘破发，股价一度跌4%，截止收盘报跌1.78%。\n2015——是80后李想第三次创业，创立理想汽车的年份，同时也是理想汽车港交所上市的股票代码。\n从1999年起，港交所开始推行“股份代号慈善抽签安排计划”，只要向香港公益金捐款，便可自选股份代号。理想汽车内部人士向虎嗅表示，公司确实通过捐款的方式，自选了这个号码。“2015，真的回归初心了。”\n8月12日，理想汽车正式登陆港交所。\n公告显示，理想汽车将在香港公开发售1千万股A类普通股，占全球发售股票10%。按发售价每股118港元计算，此次港股IPO募资约115.5亿港元，公开发售阶段理想汽车-W获5.5倍认购。\n相比之下，一个月前刚登陆港股的小鹏汽车，融资认购倍数高达14.73倍，总融资额高达140亿港元，约合116.52亿元。\n可见，市场对于理想汽车的港交所上市，表现得过于冷静。\n成立六年，却只卖一款车的理想汽车，即便是7月销量超越蔚来、小鹏成为新势力第一，但资本市场并不为“理想”买单。截止8月10日美股收盘，蔚来市值约724.6亿美元，小鹏汽车市值360.6亿美元，理想汽车仅有291.5亿美元。\n“产品做的好不好，很多时候和二级市场没太大关系。 产品做的好，也不见得二级市场会买账，资本看重的是想象空间。理想汽车的纯电车型上市，是关键节点。”一位投资界人士向虎嗅表示。\n理想汽车，不但缺钱、缺新车，还缺好故事。\n一、造出一台爆款，只是偶然？\n1981年出生的李想，比两位70后创业造车人李斌和何小鹏，少了一份老练。在面对舆论事件时，李想经常口无遮拦。\n但论做产品、搞企业，李想却总能后发制人，并且一鸣惊人。2005年，李想创办汽车之家时，市面上早已有多家成熟的汽车网站，其中就包括2000年由李斌创立的易车网。李想只花了3年，让汽车之家跻身行业访问量第一。\n2015年，李想创办理想汽车时，蔚来和小鹏都已经抢先起跑。在创业早期，李想和团队把精力和资源都放在了第一款产品微型纯电小车SEV。但经过长达两年多的研发和测试工作后，最终因为政策的原因，不得不宣告该项目停止。\nSEV陈列在理想汽车总部大厅里\n虽然项目的戛然而止，并没有造成团队分崩离析，但产品研发、量产交付的节奏却远远落后于另外两家新势力。直到2018年10月，理想汽车首款产品理想ONE才姗姗来迟。而彼时，蔚来已经大规模交付ES8车型，并成功的在纽交所完成公司上市。\n经过这两年的摸爬打滚，三家新势力都跑出来各自独特的风格。蔚来以“海底捞式”的服务体系深入人心，小鹏汽车以科技智能化体验打动消费者。不过，理想汽车留给大家的印象，还只是停留在理想ONE这一款产品上。\n8月1日，理想汽车公布7月交付数据显示，7月交付8,589辆理想ONE，同比增长251.3%，环比增长11.4%。这样使得，理想汽车一举超越蔚来的7,931台和小鹏汽车的8,040台交付量，成为造车新势力7月销量第一名。\n在7月新能源总销量榜中，理想ONE还超越特斯拉Model 3、比亚迪汉等车型，排名第四。\n\n之所以能造出爆款，有一定的偶然性。\n理想汽车战略部负责人张辉道出了答案：“如果站在李想本人的角度来看，一定会成。因为他的这些方法论是以前（在汽车之家）就有的——圈定一个非常非常明确的用户群，然后为这群用户去打造产品。”\n不同于蔚来和小鹏，在纯电动车领域直面特斯拉，理想ONE另辟蹊径走了增程式电动的“捷径”，不局限于纯电动的细分领域，而是把自己放到市场规模更大的燃油车领域中。在此之上，理想ONE瞄准家庭用户的需求痛点打造产品，最后以性价比和产品力，持续从传统车企手里抢走用户。\n不过，张辉也坦言，站在2025战略的角度来说，如果用同样的方式去做，后面的结果就变成偶然了。\n“我们预计2025年中国新能源市场销量是800万辆，我们要做到20%的市场占有率，160万辆销量。这个市场是否还存有这么多需求未被满足的用户群？其他人没看到，正好只被我们发现？这几乎不可能。”\n张辉还表示：“我们必须从理想ONE这个偶然成功，走向更多的必然成功，才能实现2025年的目标。”\n实际上，理想汽车的2025年战略目标，是成为中国第一的智能电动车企业——这一目标出自于，今年2月理想汽车CEO李想发布的一份内部信。其中提到，公司2025年的战略目标是在中国占据20%的市场份额，位列中国市场第一。\n对于李想立下的这个Flag，投资人还是表示看好。经纬中国合伙人王华东表示：“希望这次港股上市融资，助力公司早日实现2025年的战略目标，继续推动新能源汽车的不断发展。”\n不过，单一技术路线、单一车型，难以实现这一“宏图伟梦”。\n二、走过的捷径，迟早要还\n据招股书显示，这次理想汽车讲给港交所的新故事，大概分为三块重点：下一代增程式新车型、纯电动新车型、L4级别自动驾驶能力。\n理想汽车港交所招股说明书\n无论是资本市场，还是普通消费者，最期待的还是理想汽车能迈入纯电动市场，造出一款和理想ONE一样，称得上爆款的国产纯电动汽车。\n当然，这也是理想登陆港交所募资的重要原因之一。\n理想在招股书中写道，所得款项净额的20%将为研发高压纯电动汽车技术、平台及未来车型提供资金。相比之下，募资的15%将用于自动驾驶研发、10%将用于增程式平台开发。从投入资金占比看来，理想做纯电动车，这次是动真格了。\n具体来看，理想汽车的纯电技术分为几个核心要素：高倍率电池组、高压平台、热管理系统、高功率充电网络。\n纯电动+快充+自建充电网络，听起来熟不熟悉？没错，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏早几年前，就开始在这条路上走了。如今，理想汽车要把这条路重新走一遍。\n理想汽车港交所招股说明书\n在招股书中，理想还提到：“随着下一代电动车技术不断进步，我们相信这是引入高压纯电动平台及未来高压纯电动车型的好时机。”\n那现在才做纯电，到底是不是好时机呢？\n从产业链的角度来说，动力电池成本的降低，会拉近纯电动汽车和燃油车之间的成本差异。使得在同价位的竞争中，纯电会更具产品力优势。\n以蔚来ES8为例，当初在2018年用的70千瓦时电池，那么光电池组的成本就高达1.26万美元，折合人民币8.2万。不仅电池贵，续航也差。2018款蔚来ES8的NEDC续航仅425公里，实际上使用和高速成绩要再打折扣。\n而最新的蔚来100度电池包，按照今年的成本价计算，一个100度电池组约1.23万美元，折合人民币8万，但这让2020款蔚来ES8的NEDC续航达到580公里。\n换而言之，相近的电池成本，以前只能做到400公里续航，现在可以轻松做到近600公里。\n\n如果说，当时理想ONE一开始就采用纯电，大概率会是失败结局。\nEric Ries在《精益创业实战》中提出过一个MVP（Minimum Viable Product，最小可行产品）概念，指在市场不确定的情况下，通过一款产品跑通整个模式。如果成功了，就投入资源大规模进入市场，如果失败了，就快速调整方向。理想ONE， 做的就是这件事。\n因为，对于中大型电池动力SUV而言，电池系统约占物料成本的35%。要么你就卖得更贵，要么你就牺牲电池容量。站在2018年之前，那个政策和市场不明朗的阶段，理想汽车只能是采用小电池+燃油发电机的“混合动力”路线，顺利度过危险期，等到电池成本降低。\n根据预测，在新的化学材料、新的制造技术及简化包装设计的加持下，电池每千瓦时的平均价格预计将于2025年达85美元。到那个阶段，高续航、低成本的电池，让电动车与燃油车可以公平竞争。\n按规划，理想将在2022年推出增程式全尺寸豪华智能SUV，并在2023年推出另外两款增程式SUV，从2023年起，每年至少推出两款纯电车型。\n理想汽车港交所招股说明书\n不过需要注意的是，电池成本下降是人人受益的。目前，理想最大的困境在于，多款新产品仍未正式亮相，且平台化和规模化能力尚未得到验证。\n早期，为了让理想ONE快速推向市场，它是在一个相对独立的增程式平台打造的产品，那更别提纯电动平台了。这就意味着，它可能还无法像大众MEB纯电平台那样，快速迭代出新产品，扩大市场规模、降低边际成本。\n小鹏汽车港交所招股说明书\n甚至，连现在的小鹏汽车都已具备了一定的平台化能力。\n小鹏旗下Edward、David两个平台，前者负责衍生出中高端车，后者负责中低端车。这也就是为什么，小鹏能在P7推出后一年不到的时间，推出改款G3和新款P5。到明年，小鹏还要推出一款全新的中大型SUV产品。\n再包括特斯拉的Model 3和Model Y，蔚来的ES8、ES6、EC6也都同样具备一定的平台化能力。至少，它们在多款车型上，实现了零部件共用、降本增效的作用。\n最后，最为致命的是，理想的研发投入基础在“三傻”中最低。\n据财报显示，2020年全年，理想汽车研发支出共计为11亿元，同比下降6%，而研发投入占比总营收的11.8%；蔚来同期研发费用为24.87亿元，同比下降43.8%，占总收入的15.3%。小鹏全年的研发费用为17.26亿元，同比下降16.6%，占总收入的比例为29.5%。\n研发的高投入，使得蔚来在产品和技术上实现了大步向前。即将在明年初交付的蔚来ET7，是蔚来第二代平台NP2的产物，当时150kWh固态电池的登场，让资本市场掀起了一股固态电池投资热。而小鹏的新车型P5，用上双激光雷达的方案，让自动驾驶硬件水平再上一个台阶。\n相反，理想汽车招股书中说的各种花哨技术，比如4C快充高倍率电池组、基于第三代SiC半导体材料的高压平台、二氧化碳冷媒的热管理系统、高性能快充网络、L4级自动驾驶能力等等。目前，还只是停留在“纸上谈兵”的阶段。\n还是那句话，所有你走过的捷径，命运会逼你原路重走一遍。\n三、不割“韭菜”，想像空间打几折？\n比起卖车，资本更青睐于倾听“第二增长曲线”的故事。\n对此，特斯拉就拿捏有度。截止2020年第三季度，特斯拉的软件现金收入累积已超10亿美元。据安信证券预测，预计特斯拉2025年软件业务的收入将近70亿美元，占特斯拉汽车业务营收的接近9%，贡献25%的汽车业务毛利。\n众所周知，特斯拉的模式就是，尽可能以成本价出售硬件产品，获得更多的市场保有量，再通过数据优势，研发可大规模升级的自动驾驶等软件功能，最后用一次性购买或者订阅的方式，从用户手中赚软件付费的钱。\n摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas近日发布了一份报告，试图对特斯拉的软件即服务业务进行估值：“特斯拉经常性软件收入价值可能会超过其硬件业务的价值。随着时间的推移，我们预计特斯拉将向用户推出一系列广泛服务，并披露更多财务信息。在我们看来，这种转变将有助于推动股票重新估值。”\n但对于软件付费模式，这一估值增长的利器，理想汽车CEO李想却在此前的采访中表现出相对保守的态度：“我们不能封死说一定不提供软件服务、不需要这方面收入。”\n目前，理想汽车的辅助驾驶功能，是以标配的形式包含在车价中，不需要额外付费。但按照李想的说法，现在不收软件付费钱，是因为市场规模还不够大，谈软件订阅收入为时尚早。\n这个说法，并非没有道理，但小鹏和蔚来都已经初尝甜果。\n比如小鹏汽车的财报显示，2020年其自动驾驶系统XPILOT3.0软件包的收入为5000万元，而今年一季度达到了3000万，已经超过去年全年收入的一半。\n而蔚来这边，在今年一季度毛利率达到了惊人的19.48%，比理想的17.26%，小鹏的11.18%都要高出不少。最直接原因正是电池租用、自动驾驶软件包这两项订阅制付费的助力。\n但目前，客观的困难是，更高级别自动驾驶功能落地时间尚不明确。“面向开放道路的L4无人车规模化量产，我们认为仍需要5-10年。有待于道路建设、法规法律的完善等等方面的补足。”驭势科技品牌市场总监张晓丹告诉虎嗅。\n所以，现阶段绝大部分新势力都还在招兵买马的阶段。除了推进新的研发项目，更多的还是为了避免人才流入其他车企。\n据美股招股书显示，截止2020年初，理想汽车共有雇员2628人。但到2021年初，根据港股招股书，理想团队快速扩充到4900人，增长速度超过86%。\n但增长最快的岗位并非研发人员，而是销售。2020年初，理想汽车研发团队人员1005人，到2021年初，研发人员达到1633人，占总体人数的33.3%。与之相对的是，理想的市场及销售人员从2020年初的475人，快速增加到2166人。\n\n理想卖得好是真，但自动驾驶功能“掉队”也是真。\n在5月底发布2021款理想ONE时，NOA自动导航辅助驾驶被当做是宣传点之一，但直到今天，该功能仍未向用户推送。而这距离今年1月26日，小鹏汽车推出类似的NGP自动导航辅助驾驶功能，已经过去半年之久。蔚来甚至在去年10月，就向用户推送了NOP领航辅助驾驶功能。\n所以，要么就是在憋大招，要么就是还没有“真功夫”。\n写在最后\n据招股书文件显示，理想汽车用近80页的篇幅，讲述了公司面临的12条风险因素，其中一条关于“强制退市”的风险，值得深思。\n对于造车新势力们来说，手握大量车主个人信息和国内道路交通信息，无论是接受会计底稿审查，还是重大信息披露，都涉及到一个棘手问题：存在重要数据、个人信息的泄露的可能性。\n不久前，小鹏汽车港股IPO的招股说明书中，同样也特别提到了退市风险提示。那么，在数据监管的大背景下，市场对于理想汽车的上市表现得冷淡，也是情有可原的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"02015":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}