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程军霞
2021-08-13

How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!

摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。

How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":897906314,"tweetId":"897906314","gmtCreate":1628865996438,"gmtModify":1676529880679,"author":{"id":3586987699588218,"idStr":"3586987699588218","authorId":3586987699588218,"authorIdStr":"3586987699588218","name":"程军霞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2b9e825b205bbccc2c2269e1c534caa","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897906314","repostId":1138393223,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138393223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628833966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138393223?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138393223","media":"美港电讯","summary":"摩根大通分析师认为，美股回调风险均在可控范围内。","content":"The three major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red across the board on Thursday. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.In this regard, JPMorgan Chase analyst Marko Kolanovic (Marko Kolanovic) emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta mutant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He believes that,U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.Kolanovic said:\"WhereasStrong Earnings Season, Cautious Investor Holdings, Signs of Delta Receding, and Normalizing Bond-Stock Correlation, we still have reservations about the risk of recent market corrections. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"From the perspective of investor position distributionAs always, Kolanovic believes that no matter how high the position soars at present, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And, while both major banking institutional brokerage firms show record total exposure to hedge funds, retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds at the moment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that the position level will continue to rise, he said that the current position is still near the average level compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta (expressed in percentiles) for generalized hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and funds targeting volatility (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).Beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the whole market, and separates the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I have to admit that the increased exposure of these funds this year has definitely helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan points to a more important point that these indicators are close to historical averages-at around 50%, while most revisions historically occurred when these indicators were above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators stay at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not encounter a significant correction.This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.Looking at the risk of soaring U.S. bond yieldsSo, if an investor's position does not pose a risk, what is a risk? According to Kolanovic,The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or related to tapering, inflation, etc.).The chart below shows the correlation between the 10-year bond price and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices are up 1% on average, tech stocks are up 4%, and financials are down 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.Over the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, communications) have pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.Kolanovic believes that such a risk is small, writing:\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that the conditions for such an event are: stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries will suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. But given the correlation between the two The correlation has weakened, and the recent performance of the stock and bond markets is very good (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are reporting bright, and U.S. bond yields are on the rise), so the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovic pointed out that investors can hedge their risks by holding bonds and stocks less time, which may trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks to a certain extent, thus further illustrating the risk of a widespread sell-off in the stock market. not big.From the risk of Delta virusNow that the risk of position adjustment and rising yield (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else will cause concern?Kolanovic said that the main factor hindering the strength of risky assets in the past few months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish speeches from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should feel reassured that the death rate from the Delta epidemic is low among vaccinated countries, and there is a good chance that this will be the last wave of COVID-19 pandemic.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Kolanovic added:\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta epidemic. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of patients who begin to develop symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 U.S. states.\"Other potential risksWell, the positions are average, the tapering risk is under control, and the Delta epidemic is receding. Are there any other risks in the market?The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefit from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovation stocks.While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The ultimate level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these sectors and equivalent traditional sectors.While these \"bubble assets\" are likely to continue to burst, Kolanovic believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next yearGeopolitical risksWill be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia, Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and political developments in the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, the bullish expectations remain unchanged.","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the U.S. stock market go after it continues to set new highs? 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Xiaomo argues from three aspects: watch more!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n美港电讯2021-08-13 13:52\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe three major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red across the board on Thursday. The Dow and S&P 500 both hit new intraday highs. The pharmaceutical and software sectors performed strongly, while the new energy-related sectors fell for the second consecutive day.In this regard, JPMorgan Chase analyst Marko Kolanovic (Marko Kolanovic) emphasized that the market has exaggerated the impact of the Delta mutant strain, and value stocks will rise sharply, surpassing growth stocks. He believes that,U.S. bond yields and cyclical stocks may have bottomed out last week, and the rest of the year is expected to open up upside.Kolanovic said:\"WhereasStrong Earnings Season, Cautious Investor Holdings, Signs of Delta Receding, and Normalizing Bond-Stock Correlation, we still have reservations about the risk of recent market corrections. We are particularly bullish on cyclical and reflation-related market sectors and cautious about stocks that have benefited from the pandemic and low bond yields. \"From the perspective of investor position distributionAs always, Kolanovic believes that no matter how high the position soars at present, the average situation is the best reference indicator. And, while both major banking institutional brokerage firms show record total exposure to hedge funds, retail investors are clearly putting \"all their money\" into hedge funds at the moment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdd56aaf6b99064c85d0f05cd6db2a69\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Facts aside, although Kolanovic predicts that the position level will continue to rise, he said that the current position is still near the average level compared with the 10-year history. Figure 1 shows the equity beta (expressed in percentiles) for generalized hedge funds, equity long/short hedge funds, and funds targeting volatility (e.g. insurance companies, risk parity, etc.).Beta coefficient is used to quantify the volatility of individual investment instruments relative to the whole market, and separates the price changes caused by individual risks from the volatility of the whole market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f203ef810dff6eba55e356d8bb3df495\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I have to admit that the increased exposure of these funds this year has definitely helped the stock market. However, JPMorgan points to a more important point that these indicators are close to historical averages-at around 50%, while most revisions historically occurred when these indicators were above around 80%. However, sometimes even if these indicators stay at 100% for up to a year, the stock market does not encounter a significant correction.This is because, in this market, broad investor positions are completely irrelevant,Only the direction of the Fed's policy is crucial.Looking at the risk of soaring U.S. bond yieldsSo, if an investor's position does not pose a risk, what is a risk? According to Kolanovic,The next risk factor is that yields may rise sharply (or related to tapering, inflation, etc.).The chart below shows the correlation between the 10-year bond price and the beta coefficients of different stock sectors.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dede8349ddf00ff13a251a67b32cf056\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In July, the tech sector had a bond beta of +4, while the financial sector had a beta of-3, Kolanovic wrote. In other words, 10-year bond prices are up 1% on average, tech stocks are up 4%, and financials are down 3%. This correlation weakened after the earnings release, and all equity sectors now show a typical negative correlation with bond prices.Over the past month, weaker Nasdaq sectors (such as technology, discretionary assets, communications) have pushed the beta index of S&P 500 bond stocks to about 1 from negative territory in the second quarter.The obvious risk here is that a rapid reversal of this correlation during a bond sell-off could lead to a sell-off of both bonds and stocks. This happened in February and October 2018.Kolanovic believes that such a risk is small, writing:\"Considering the current position level, volatility and other factors, we estimate that the conditions for such an event are: stocks and 10-year U.S. Treasuries will suffer a sell-off of about 3% in one day. But given the correlation between the two The correlation has weakened, and the recent performance of the stock and bond markets is very good (cyclical stocks are on the rise, growth stocks are reporting bright, and U.S. bond yields are on the rise), so the probability of both bonds and stocks being sold off is extremely low.\" Kolanovic pointed out that investors can hedge their risks by holding bonds and stocks less time, which may trigger investors to shift from growth stocks to value stocks to a certain extent, thus further illustrating the risk of a widespread sell-off in the stock market. not big.From the risk of Delta virusNow that the risk of position adjustment and rising yield (or tapering) can be effectively controlled, what else will cause concern?Kolanovic said that the main factor hindering the strength of risky assets in the past few months has been the spread of the Delta strain, rather than the peak of economic growth or hawkish speeches from the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic firmly believes that despite the high number of cases, \"investors should feel reassured that the death rate from the Delta epidemic is low among vaccinated countries, and there is a good chance that this will be the last wave of COVID-19 pandemic.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d615b24cd47876299d07f421fa661a\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Kolanovic added:\"There are strong signs that the United States is beginning to reverse the Delta epidemic. An important signal is that the basic infection number (the average number of patients who begin to develop symptoms at some point) is declining in 40 of the 50 U.S. states.\"Other potential risksWell, the positions are average, the tapering risk is under control, and the Delta epidemic is receding. Are there any other risks in the market?The answer is yes. Among the secondary risks listed by JPMorgan quantitative analysts are assets that benefit from the COVID-19 pandemic, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and innovation stocks.While these sectors experienced a major correction at the start of the year, JPMorgan believes there will be another round of declines. The ultimate level of adjustment may be determined by valuation convergence between these sectors and equivalent traditional sectors.While these \"bubble assets\" are likely to continue to burst, Kolanovic believes that this will not be enough to destroy the market.Finally, Kolanovic predicts that next yearGeopolitical risksWill be further increased and amplified, and these risks will involve various interdependent issues, such as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia, Iran, issues surrounding energy security, inflation, and political developments in the United States itself. But as long as the Fed continues to pump billions of dollars of liquidity into the market every month, the bullish expectations remain unchanged.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733\">美港电讯</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138393223","content_text":"周四美股三大股指收盘全线飘红。道指和标普500指数盘中双双再创新高。医药、软件板块表现强势，新能源相关板块连续第二日回落。\n对此，摩根大通分析师马克•科拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）强调，市场夸大了德尔塔变异毒株的影响，价值股将大幅上涨，超过成长股。他认为，美债收益率和周期股可能已经在上周触底，今年剩余时间料将打开上行空间。\n科拉诺维奇表示：\n\n “鉴于\n 强劲的财报季、投资者谨慎的持仓、德尔塔病毒消退的迹象以及债券-股票相关性正常化，我们对近期市场回调风险仍持保留意见。我们尤其看好周期性和通货再膨胀相关的市场板块，并对受益于疫情和低债券收益率的股票持谨慎态度。”\n\n从投资者的仓位分布来看\n科拉诺维奇一如既往地认为，不管仓位目前飙升到多高，平均情况才是最好的参考指标。而且，尽管两家主要银行机构经纪公司均显示对冲基金的总敞口达到创纪录水平，但散户投资者目前显然还是将“所有资金”投入对冲基金。\n\n抛开事实不谈，虽然科拉诺维奇预估仓位水平将持续上升，但他表示，目前的仓位与10年历史相比，仍处在平均水平附近。图1显示了广义对冲基金、股票多/空对冲基金和以波动率为目标的基金（如保险公司、风险平价等）的股票贝塔系数（以百分位数表示）。\n贝塔系数用来量化个别投资工具相对整个市场的波动，将个别风险引起的价格变化和整个市场波动分离开来。\n\n不得不承认的是，今年这些基金增加的敞口肯定对股市有所帮助。然而，摩根大通指出了更重要的一点，这些指标接近历史平均水平——约50%处，而历史上大多数修正发生在这些指标高于80%左右的时候。不过，有时即使这些指标在100%逗留了长达一年的时间，股市也没有遭遇显著的修正。\n这是因为，在这个市场上，广泛的投资者仓位完全无关紧要，只有美联储的政策走向至关重要。\n从美债收益率飙升的风险来看\n那么，如果投资者的仓位不构成风险，什么才是风险呢？按照科拉诺维奇的说法，下一个风险因素是收益率可能急剧上升（或与缩减购债规模、通胀等相关）。下图展示了10年期债券价格与不同股票板块的贝塔系数之间的相关性。\n\n科拉诺维奇写道，在7月份，科技板块的债券贝塔值为+4，而金融板块的贝塔值为-3。换句话说，10年期债券价格平均上涨1%，科技股上涨4%，金融股下跌3%。财报发布后，这种相关性有所减弱，现在所有股票板块都与债券价格呈现典型的负相关性。\n在过去一个月里，纳斯达克板块（如科技、非必需资产、通讯）走弱推动标普500指数债券类股的贝塔指数从第二季度的负区域升至约1。\n这里明显的风险是，在债券抛售期间这种相关性的迅速逆转，可能导致债券和股票双双遭到抛售。这在2018年2月和10月就曾发生过。\n科拉诺维奇认为这样的风险很小，他写道：\n\n “考虑到当前的仓位水平、波动性和其他因素，我们估计，这样的事件发生的条件是：股票和10年期美债在1天内遭受约3%的抛售。但鉴于两者间的相关性已经减弱，且近期股市和债市的表现都很不错（周期性股票抬头、成长型股票财报成绩亮眼以及美债收益率回升），因此债券和股票双双遭到抛售的概率极低。”\n\n科拉诺维奇指出，投资者可以通过减少持有债券和股票的时间来对冲风险，这可能在一定程度上将触发投资者从成长型股票转向价值股，因此更加说明了股市大范围抛售风险不大。\n从德尔塔病毒的风险来看\n既然仓位调整和收益率上升（或者说缩债）的风险能得到有效控制，还有什么因素会引发担忧呢？\n科拉诺维奇表示，过去几个月阻碍风险资产走强的主要因素是德尔塔毒株的传播，而非经济增长见顶或者美联储鹰派发言。科拉诺维奇坚信，尽管病例数量高企，“在接种了疫苗的国家中，德尔塔疫情的死亡率较低，投资者应该感到放心，而且这很有可能是最后一波新冠疫情。”\n\n科拉诺维奇补充道：\n\n “有强烈的迹象表明，美国正在开始逆转德尔塔疫情。一个重要信号是，美国50个州中有40个州的基本传染数（某时刻开始出现症状的患者平均能够感染的人数）正在下降。”\n\n其他潜在风险\n那么，仓位处于平均水平，缩减风险已得到控制，德尔塔疫情正在消退。市场还存在其他风险吗?\n答案是肯定的。在摩根大通量化分析师列出的次级风险中，包括在新冠疫情中受益的资产，如可再生能源和电动汽车、加密货币和创新股。\n虽然这些板块在年初经历了一次重大调整，但摩根大通相信还会有另一轮下跌。最终的调整水平可能由这些行业与同等传统行业之间的估值趋同决定。\n尽管这些“泡沫资产”可能会继续破裂，但科拉诺维奇认为，这也不足以摧毁市场。\n最后，科拉诺维奇预计，明年地缘政治风险将会进一步增加和放大，这些风险将涉及各种相互依存的问题，如美国与俄罗斯、伊朗的地缘政治关系、围绕能源安全的问题，通货膨胀，以及美国自身的政治发展。但只要美联储继续每月向市场注入数十亿美元的流动性，看涨的预期就不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}