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叮叮当当的小人物
2022-06-11

CPI exceeded expectations, and Wall Street began to discuss whether the Fed would rate hike 75 basis points

巴克莱成为首家预计美联储会加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计下周就可能加息75个基点。而高盛认为联储6月7月9月都会每次加息50个基点。彭博策略师认为，虽然市场定价可能体现75个基点加息，但美联储不

CPI exceeded expectations, and Wall Street began to discuss whether the Fed would rate hike 75 basis points

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Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will make a 50 basis point rate hike each time in June, July and September. Bloomberg strategists believe that although market pricing may reflect a 75 basis point rate hike, the Fed will not seriously consider this range. In May, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%, hitting a new high in 40 years after March. CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month in May, of which energy prices increased by 3.9% month-on-month and food prices increased by 1.2%.What may be even more shocking about the May CPI data is that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Aditya Bhave, a senior U.S. and global economist at the company, pointed out that the report has few weaknesses. Brean Economics pointed out that inflation showed no signs of slowing down. 61% of CPI components recorded a year-on-year growth rate of at least 6% in May, and 63% of the sub-data recorded similar high growth rates in April.Therefore, the commentary believes that the May CPI report is in line with the increasingly popular view that inflation is no longer just a product of commodity supply chain disruption, it is also driven by strong consumer demand and strong wage inflation. push.In the face of such accelerated inflation, what will the Fed do next? Aside from the widely expected 50 basis points of rate hike each in June and July, will there be any new changes?An earlier article in Wall Street Journal mentioned that swap market pricing showed that the market expected a 50% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in July.Barclays became the first major Wall Street institution to expect a 75 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Some traders expect the Fed to have a 50% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in July, while Barclays expects a rate hike of this magnitude as soon as next week, that is, this month.Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said that the Fed now has every reason to rate hike in June at a rate that exceeds market expectations. The Fed may rate hike by 75 basis points in June or July. Now it is expected that it will be in June. rate hike. Barclays analysts commented on the May CPI, saying that it was not just the overall inflation rate; If all of that came from energy, we'd be inclined to ignore it, but everything in this report is very strong and is getting stronger. \"Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, also mentioned that the Federal Reserve meeting next Tuesday to Wednesday will be particularly important, and the market wants to hear how the Fed expects to fight against costs that have exceeded economists' general forecasts. There will obviously be more rate hike in the future, but maybe the Fed will start discussing the possibility of 75 basis points.Bank of America's benchmark forecast is still a 25 basis point rate hike in September, but at the same time pointed out that the May CPI increased the risk of a 50 basis point rate hike in September.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief economist Jan Hatzius commented that the overall strength of core CPI inflation will bring decisive changes to the Fed, allowing the Fed to continue its 50 basis point rate hike pace until September. Goldman Sachs continues to expect terminal interest rates to rise to 3.0 to 3.25% in the first quarter of next year.Ira Jersey, chief U.S. interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Industry Research, commented that the bear market flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve may last at least until next week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. We still don't think the Fed will seriously consider a 75 basis point rate hike, but the pricing of the market may reflect the possibility of a rate hike of this magnitude. Given the strong core CPI, the market will reflect that there may be more than one rate hike of 50 basis points after September. The Federal Reserve may try to enter a restrictive range beyond the neutral level this year, and may consider pausing its action during the rate hike towards 4% in order to allow the very lagging monetary policy to work.Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, commented that the market is closer to pricing reflecting the September rate hike of 50 basis points, which would be terrible for risky assets because the Fed may not slow down after bringing interest rates to neutral levels. pace.Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments, believes investors' interpretation will focus more on how long high inflation will stay with us, rather than whether inflation has peaked. One of the big lessons we've learned over the past year is that there is a great deal of uncertainty in any single data. We will observe the US PPI released next Tuesday, and next Wednesday, we will see the retail sales data, as well as some comments after the Fed meeting.Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said that the annual growth rate of inflation may be very close to its peak, but this may have nothing to do with the Fed's path to tightening currency, bond market and stock market valuations. Because if inflation slows down on the current basis and is still at a very high level of growth, then it is not an environment for the Fed to stop. What we are seeing now is some kind of major revaluation of high-cap stocks.Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors, commented that the CPI data this time is ugly. While inflation will eventually fall at any time, the decline will be a painfully slow process. The Fed's determination to stabilize prices is now truly under the test. Even if the economy is in trouble, it needs to be relentlessly aggressive rate hike until inflation finally starts to wane. The probability of a Fed put option is already very low, and now we should firmly throw it behind.Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research, said the CPI data was poor. Given the tight supply in the labor market and the fact that the core CPI has not fallen month-on-month, after next week's FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments should sound very hawkish.Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, commented that the Federal Reserve will face greater pressure to control inflation, will require the next three meetings and at least 50 basis points of rate hike each by the end of the year, and will need to reassess the shrinking balance sheet plan. While no recession is expected this year, there are plenty of concerns around rising interest rates, increased volatility, and lower liquidity.</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CPI exceeded expectations, and Wall Street began to discuss whether the Fed would rate hike 75 basis points</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCPI exceeded expectations, and Wall Street began to discuss whether the Fed would rate hike 75 basis points\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-06-11 07:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Barclays became the first major Wall Street bank to expect a 75 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and even predicts a 75 basis point rate hike next week. Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will make a 50 basis point rate hike each time in June, July and September. Bloomberg strategists believe that although market pricing may reflect a 75 basis point rate hike, the Fed will not seriously consider this range. In May, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%, hitting a new high in 40 years after March. CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month in May, of which energy prices increased by 3.9% month-on-month and food prices increased by 1.2%.What may be even more shocking about the May CPI data is that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Aditya Bhave, a senior U.S. and global economist at the company, pointed out that the report has few weaknesses. Brean Economics pointed out that inflation showed no signs of slowing down. 61% of CPI components recorded a year-on-year growth rate of at least 6% in May, and 63% of the sub-data recorded similar high growth rates in April.Therefore, the commentary believes that the May CPI report is in line with the increasingly popular view that inflation is no longer just a product of commodity supply chain disruption, it is also driven by strong consumer demand and strong wage inflation. push.In the face of such accelerated inflation, what will the Fed do next? Aside from the widely expected 50 basis points of rate hike each in June and July, will there be any new changes?An earlier article in Wall Street Journal mentioned that swap market pricing showed that the market expected a 50% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in July.Barclays became the first major Wall Street institution to expect a 75 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Some traders expect the Fed to have a 50% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in July, while Barclays expects a rate hike of this magnitude as soon as next week, that is, this month.Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said that the Fed now has every reason to rate hike in June at a rate that exceeds market expectations. The Fed may rate hike by 75 basis points in June or July. Now it is expected that it will be in June. rate hike. Barclays analysts commented on the May CPI, saying that it was not just the overall inflation rate; If all of that came from energy, we'd be inclined to ignore it, but everything in this report is very strong and is getting stronger. \"Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, also mentioned that the Federal Reserve meeting next Tuesday to Wednesday will be particularly important, and the market wants to hear how the Fed expects to fight against costs that have exceeded economists' general forecasts. There will obviously be more rate hike in the future, but maybe the Fed will start discussing the possibility of 75 basis points.Bank of America's benchmark forecast is still a 25 basis point rate hike in September, but at the same time pointed out that the May CPI increased the risk of a 50 basis point rate hike in September.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief economist Jan Hatzius commented that the overall strength of core CPI inflation will bring decisive changes to the Fed, allowing the Fed to continue its 50 basis point rate hike pace until September. Goldman Sachs continues to expect terminal interest rates to rise to 3.0 to 3.25% in the first quarter of next year.Ira Jersey, chief U.S. interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Industry Research, commented that the bear market flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve may last at least until next week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. We still don't think the Fed will seriously consider a 75 basis point rate hike, but the pricing of the market may reflect the possibility of a rate hike of this magnitude. Given the strong core CPI, the market will reflect that there may be more than one rate hike of 50 basis points after September. The Federal Reserve may try to enter a restrictive range beyond the neutral level this year, and may consider pausing its action during the rate hike towards 4% in order to allow the very lagging monetary policy to work.Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, commented that the market is closer to pricing reflecting the September rate hike of 50 basis points, which would be terrible for risky assets because the Fed may not slow down after bringing interest rates to neutral levels. pace.Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments, believes investors' interpretation will focus more on how long high inflation will stay with us, rather than whether inflation has peaked. One of the big lessons we've learned over the past year is that there is a great deal of uncertainty in any single data. We will observe the US PPI released next Tuesday, and next Wednesday, we will see the retail sales data, as well as some comments after the Fed meeting.Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said that the annual growth rate of inflation may be very close to its peak, but this may have nothing to do with the Fed's path to tightening currency, bond market and stock market valuations. Because if inflation slows down on the current basis and is still at a very high level of growth, then it is not an environment for the Fed to stop. What we are seeing now is some kind of major revaluation of high-cap stocks.Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors, commented that the CPI data this time is ugly. While inflation will eventually fall at any time, the decline will be a painfully slow process. The Fed's determination to stabilize prices is now truly under the test. Even if the economy is in trouble, it needs to be relentlessly aggressive rate hike until inflation finally starts to wane. The probability of a Fed put option is already very low, and now we should firmly throw it behind.Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research, said the CPI data was poor. Given the tight supply in the labor market and the fact that the core CPI has not fallen month-on-month, after next week's FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments should sound very hawkish.Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance, commented that the Federal Reserve will face greater pressure to control inflation, will require the next three meetings and at least 50 basis points of rate hike each by the end of the year, and will need to reassess the shrinking balance sheet plan. While no recession is expected this year, there are plenty of concerns around rising interest rates, increased volatility, and lower liquidity.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661691\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661691","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242630882","content_text":"巴克莱成为首家预计美联储会加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计下周就可能加息75个基点。而高盛认为联储6月7月9月都会每次加息50个基点。彭博策略师认为，虽然市场定价可能体现75个基点加息，但美联储不会郑重考虑这种幅度。美国5月CPI环比和同比均超预期增长，同比增速8.6%，继3月之后又创四十年来增速新高。5月CPI环比增长1.0%，其中能源价格环比增长3.9%，食品价格上涨1.2%。而5月CPI数据更领人震惊的可能是，美国银行的高级美国和全球经济学家Aditya Bhave指出，这份报告几乎毫无弱点。Brean Economics指出，通胀没有任何减速的迹象，61%的CPI组成部分5月都录得至少6%的同比增速，4月录得同类高增速的分项数据占比为63%。因此，评论认为，5月CPI报告符合越来越盛行的一种观点，那就是：通胀再也不仅仅是商品供应链干扰作用下的产物，它也受到强劲的消费者需求以及强劲的薪资通胀推动。面对这样的通胀加速高涨，美联储接下来会怎样行动？除了市场普遍预计的6月和7月各加息50个基点，还会有新的变化吗？华尔街见闻稍早文章提到，掉期市场定价显示，市场预计7月加息50个基点的概率达到50%。巴克莱成为第一家预计美联储会加息75个基点的华尔街大机构。一些交易员预计美联储7月有50%可能性加息75个基点，而巴克莱预计最快下周、即本月就会这种幅度加息。巴克莱经济学家Jonathan Millar称，现在美联储有充分的理由6月就以超出市场预期的幅度加息，联储可能6月、也可能7月加息75个基点，现在改为预计6月就可能这样加息。巴克莱分析师评价5月CPI称，不只是整体通胀率；如果所有这些都来自于能源，我们会倾向于忽略它，但这份报告中的一切都非常强劲，而且正在变得更加强劲。”LPL Financial的首席股票策略师Quincy Krosby也提到，下周二到周三的美联储会议将特别重要，市场想听一听联储预计要怎么对抗已经超过经济学家一般预测水平的成本。未来显然会有更多的加息，但说不定联储开始讨论75个基点的可能。美国银行的基准预期仍然是9月会加息25个基点，但同时指出，5月CPI让9月加息50个基点的风险增加。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius评论称，核心CPI通胀的全面走强会给美联储带来决定性改变，让联储将每次50个基点的加息步调延续到9月。高盛继续预计，明年一季度终端利率会升至3.0至3.25%。彭博行业研究的首席美国利率策略师Ira Jersey评论称，美债收益率曲线的熊市趋平至少可能持续到下周的美联储FOMC会议。我们仍然认为美联储不会郑重考虑一次加息75个基点，但市场的定价可能体现这种幅度加息的可能。鉴于核心CPI强劲，市场会体现可能9月过后还有不止一次加息50个基点。美联储可能试图今年进入超过中性水平的限制性区间，并可能考虑在朝向4%加息期间暂停行动，以便让效力非常滞后的货币政策发挥功效。TD Securities的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra评论称，市场更接近定价体现9月加息50个基点，那对风险资产来说会是可怕的，因为美联储在让利率达到中性水平后可能也不会放慢脚步。AXS Investments的CEO Greg Bassuk认为，投资者的解读将更侧重于高通胀会伴随我们多久，而不是通胀是否已见顶。过去一年我们吸取的一大教训是，任何单一的数据都有很大的不确定性。我们会观察下周二公布的美国PPI，下周三，我们会看到零售销售的数据，以及一些美联储会后的评论。MKM Partners 的首席经济学家及市场策略师Michael Darda称，通胀年增速可能非常接近巅峰，但这可能和美联储收紧货币的道路、债市和股市的估值都毫无关系。因为假如通胀在当前基础上增长放缓，仍还处在很高的增长水平，那就并不是美联储要罢手的环境，我们现在看到的是高市值股票的某种重大重新估值。Principal Global Investors 的首席全球策略师Seema Shah评论称，这次的CPI数据很难看。虽然通胀无论何时最终都会下降，但下降会是让人痛苦的缓慢过程。美联储的价格稳定决心现在真正面临考验。即使经济有困难，也需要毫不留情地激进加息，直到通胀最终开始减弱为止。美联储看跌期权（Fed put）的可能性已经非常低，现在要把它坚定地抛下了。22V Research的创始人Dennis DeBusschere 称，CPI数据很差。鉴于劳动力市场供应紧张，以及核心CPI环比并未下降，下周的FOMC会议后，美联储主席鲍威尔的言论应该会听起来非常鹰派。Independent Advisor Alliance的首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli评论称，美联储会面临更大的掌控通胀压力，会需要未来三次会议和到年底以前至少各加息50个基点，需要重新评估缩表计划。虽然预计今年不会有衰退，但在利率上升、波动增加和流动性降低方面有很多担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QID":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"CPI":1,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3184,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}