Weekly macro analysis of Oil Supply/Demand - on Dec 14th,2022
1. $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2301(MCLmain)$ 49 weeks into the year:
-Commercial crude oil inventories are up ~6.3m bbls
-SPR inventories are down ~ 211.4m bbls
-Gasoline inventories are down ~9.2m bbls
-Distillates are down ~5.1m bbls
-Jet Fuel inventories are up ~1.5m bbls
-Propane is up ~24.6m bbls
Compare to the 48th week:
-Commercial crude oil inventories are down ~4m bbls
-SPR inventories are down ~ 206.7m bbls
-Gasoline inventories are down ~13.6m bbls
-Distillates are down ~6.5m bbls
-Jet Fuel inventories are up ~3m bbls
-Propane is up ~24m bbls
Both gasoline and distillates have been building at a crazy pace over the last 5 weeks. More than a million bbls higher than the 5yr average.
2.For the week ending December 9/22
-Propane build (Very Bearish)
-Distillates build (Neutral)
-Large Gasoline build (Bearish)
-Jet Fuel draw (Bullish)
Overall (including a 10.2m (4.7m SPR) crude oil draw), a very bearish report.3.Demand for total products improved slightly and was ~0.3% above the 2015-2019 average.
Gasoline demand for the week ending Dec 9/2022.
~9% below the 2015-2019 Average
~8.6% above 2020
~7.1% below 20194.The contango at the front part of the WTI futures curve is slowly disappearing. The futures strip is averaging $76.64 and the calendar spread is averaging ~$25.Canadian Crude oil exports were up for the week ending Dec. 9/22. YTD exports are averaging ~3.5m bbls/d slightly behind 2021 and 2019.
https://twitter.com/Gugo907/status/1603052870370492416
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