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2022-08-28

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CICC: China and the United States signed an audit supervision cooperation agreement, how to interpret the subsequent impact

如果取得实质性进展，或将有助于缓解多数公司退市的尾部风险和市场短期压力。

CICC: China and the United States signed an audit supervision cooperation agreement, how to interpret the subsequent impact

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9994277853,"tweetId":"9994277853","gmtCreate":1661653406273,"gmtModify":1676536555306,"author":{"id":3586317757274365,"idStr":"3586317757274365","authorId":3586317757274365,"authorIdStr":"3586317757274365","name":"erinwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81d91362bde32a7f8e54e43970de4e7b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":38,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994277853","repostId":1133824414,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133824414","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金点睛","id":"1012212489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75"},"pubTimestamp":1661574905,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133824414?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-27 12:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: China and the United States signed an audit supervision cooperation agreement, how to interpret the subsequent impact","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133824414","media":"中金点睛","summary":"如果取得实质性进展，或将有助于缓解多数公司退市的尾部风险和市场短期压力。","content":"<html><head></head><body>Author: Liu Gang, Kou Yue, Zhang Weihan, etc.On the evening of August 26, Beijing time, the website of China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that China Securities Regulatory Commission, Ministry of Finance and US regulatory agencies signed an audit cooperation agreement [1]. According to the announcement, the cooperation agreement is based on the laws and regulations of the two countries, respects international common practices, and in accordance with the principle of reciprocity and mutual benefit, makes a clear agreement on the cooperation between the two sides in regulatory inspection and investigation activities of relevant accounting firms, forming a cooperation framework that meets the laws and regulatory requirements of both sides. Correspondingly, the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have also issued relevant statements [2] [3].Overall, we believe that the signing of the audit supervision cooperation agreement between China and the United States is the first breakthrough since the SEC included Chinese concept stock companies listed in the United States in the \"delisting risk list\" in early March this year, which triggered a series of fluctuations.It is the first step to solve the long-standing regulatory risks that plague Chinese concept stocks, laying the foundation for further supervision cooperation between China and the United States. Looking ahead, how the regulatory agencies of the two countries will specifically advance it will be the focus. In this process, we still need to pay attention to the consistency of the requirements of China and the United States.If substantial progress is made, it may help alleviate the tail risks and short-term market pressure of most companies' delisting.The subsequent medium-term trend of Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong stock markets will still depend more on the repair of fundamentals.Based on the latest regulatory trends, we further analyze the possible impact of the signing of this agreement, the future evolution path, and the prospects of the Chinese concept stock market.The ins and outs of the Chinese concept stock issue: a long history, extensive influence, and continuous negotiationThe problem of Chinese concept stocks has a long history. This round of Chinese concept stock turmoil can be traced back to the signing of the \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\" by then President Trump at the end of 2020. At the end of 2021, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) further issued the implementation details of the bill, and in March this year, it officially gradually included companies that did not meet its requirements in the so-called \"preliminary identification list\" and entered the actual implementation stage. Up to now, a total of more than 150 Chinese concept stock companies have been on the list [4].One of the core contents of the bill is to require accounting firms of foreign companies to submit audit papers. If they fail to provide them for three consecutive years, they may face the risk of delisting. In addition, the bill requires foreign companies to disclose their relationships with foreign governments and prove that they are not owned or controlled by foreign governments. Therefore, since the implementation of this bill, regulatory uncertainty has become one of the important factors suppressing the performance of Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong-listed technology stocks.However, in response to this external uncertainty, negotiations between China and the United States have been going on. For example, after the SEC included the first batch of Chinese concept stocks in the \"preliminary identification list\" on March 10, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an announcement in the early morning of March 11 stating that it is \"willing to solve related issues through regulatory cooperation\" [5]. On March 16, Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council presided over a meeting of the Financial Committee, saying that the regulatory agencies of China and the United States have maintained good communication [6], made positive progress, and are working to form specific cooperation plans. China continues to support all kinds of enterprises to go public overseas. Not only that, but China is also promoting the revision of some supporting policies and regulations to adapt to the new external environment. For example, in December 2021 and April 2022, the State Council and the China Securities Regulatory Commission successively drafted the \"Regulations of the State Council on the Administration of Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities by Domestic Enterprises (Draft for Comment)\" and revised the \"Regulations on Strengthening the Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities by Domestic Enterprises\". Relevant Confidentiality and File Management Work (Draft for Comment) \"solicits opinions, increases the coverage of domestic companies listed in Hong Kong and the United States, and provides institutional guarantees for cross-border regulatory cooperation. Therefore, it can be seen that Sino-US regulatory cooperation is also the general direction.Chart: Summary of overseas Chinese stock market performance and major events since 2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ad838ac0bc148dfa2ed35a07c05033\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, China Securities Regulatory Commission, US Securities Regulatory Commission, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Since 2020, the uncertainty of the external regulatory environment faced by Chinese concept stocks has continued to increase<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d563c8e97908433339870d8830d1ee54\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: China Securities Regulatory Commission, US Securities Regulatory Commission, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CICC Research DepartmentThe main contents of the Sino-US Audit Supervision Cooperation Agreement: determining the operation process and mode, and providing sensitive information processing proceduresThis cooperation agreement mainly makes specific arrangements for audit papers and regulatory cooperation issues that plague whether Chinese concept stocks can continue to be listed in the United States. Refer to the announcement of the CSRC:1) Main content: The two parties have made specific arrangements for daily inspections and law enforcement investigations to cooperate with relevant accounting firms, and agreed on important matters such as the purpose of cooperation, scope of cooperation, form of cooperation, information use, and specific data protection;2) Scope of cooperation: including assisting the other party in carrying out inspections and investigations of relevant firms. Among them, the scope of assistance provided by the Chinese side also involves some Hong Kong firms that provide audit services for Chinese concept stocks, and the audit papers are stored in the mainland;3) Collaboration method: The two parties will communicate and coordinate the inspection and investigation activity plan in advance. The United States must obtain audit papers and other documents through the Chinese regulatory authorities, and conduct interviews and inquiries with relevant personnel of the accounting firm with the participation and assistance of the Chinese side.In addition, this cooperation agreement also points out the following issues that the market is more concerned about or may be confused about, such as the content of audit papers, supervision forms and sensitive information:1) Content of the manuscript: The main function of the audit working paper is to record whether the auditor has dutifully verified the accuracy of financial information such as enterprise income and expenditure in accordance with auditing standards. Therefore, it generally does not include sensitive information such as state secrets, personal privacy or underlying enterprise data.2) Supervision object: The direct object of audit supervision is the accounting firm, not the listed company it audits;3) Form of supervision: The regulatory agency of the place of listing selects some accounting firms for inspection every year, and there is no need to inspect all audit items of listed companies in the United States every year;4) Processing of sensitive information: Clear agreements have been made on the processing and use of sensitive information that may involve, and special processing procedures have been set up for specific data such as personal information, providing a feasible path for both parties to perform their statutory regulatory duties while protecting relevant information security.It is not difficult to see that this cooperation agreement has made relevant arrangements in all aspects and links involving audit supervision operations. At the same time, there are special ways to deal with some sensitive information that may be involved. Therefore, although it remains to be seen whether the specific follow-up progress will be smooth, this cooperation agreement at least provides an operational basis and takes the first step for the follow-up regulatory cooperation between the two parties.The significance of signing the cooperation agreement between China and the United States: taking the first step of regulatory cooperation; Or alleviate market pressure and the delisting risk of most companies, and maintain smooth cross-border financing channelsCombined with the current market environment and the specific content of the agreement, we believe that this cooperation agreement is of great significance to solving the long-standing regulatory risks that have plagued Chinese concept stocks and lay the foundation for further regulatory cooperation in the future. If substantial progress is made in the end, it will help alleviate the market pressure and the delisting tail risk of some companies, and help protect the rights and interests of investors; In the medium and long term, it will help maintain smooth cross-border financing channels for Chinese enterprises and promote overseas financing for innovative enterprises. In fact, cross-border regulatory cooperation is also in line with international practice. The PCAOB of the United States has signed similar audit regulatory cooperation agreements with France, Belgium, Germany and other countries. Specifically,► First of all, the signing of the cooperation agreement provides the possibility for further cooperation in the follow-up and ultimately solving the regulatory issues of Chinese concept stocks, especially when it comes to special handling methods of sensitive information.► Secondly, it may alleviate the short-term market pressure and the tail risk of some companies' delisting. As we analyzed in \"Chinese Concept Stock Tracking: Future Ways and Possible Evolution\", although the final deadline required by the \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\" is the 2024 financial reporting season (concentrated from March to May), considering the actual implementation Many processes involved in the process may actually be much earlier, for example, to around November 2023, so there is not enough time. The signing of this cooperation agreement, if substantial progress is made in the end, can at least largely alleviate the market concerns and the tail risks of a considerable number of companies' delisting.► Thirdly, retaining the listing of Chinese concept stocks in the United States through regulatory cooperation is of positive significance to protecting the interests of investors and maintaining cross-border financing channels for Chinese companies, especially overseas financing for innovative companies. In fact, the U.S. stock market has always been an important financing channel for Chinese-funded enterprises, especially innovative enterprises. Since 2010, a total of 345 Chinese concept stocks have been listed in the United States, with an initial fundraising amount of US $76.4 billion. Even this year, 13 Chinese concept stocks have been listed in the United States.Follow-up progress: We still need to pay attention to the consistency of the requirements of the US and China; The extent and extent to which the manuscript can be provided is the keyOn the basis of signing this cooperation agreement, the follow-up regulatory agencies of the two countries will focus on how to specifically promote audit cooperation. In this process, we still need to pay attention to the consistency of the requirements of China and the United States. For example, whether the U.S. side's criteria for determining the review method and scope are consistent with the acceptable methods of China.In fact, in the latest statement, PCAOB stated that the signing of a cooperation agreement between China and the United States is important, but it is only the first step in regulatory cooperation. In the specific implementation process, the United States needs to decide by itself which companies and content it wants to review. Previously, both PCAOB and SEC officials in the United States stated that they needed full draft authority and did not accept partially abridged versions [7]. Therefore, the extent and scope to which audit papers can be provided in the end will remain the key to the subsequent regulatory cooperation between the two parties.Chart: Relevant statements of the cooperation agreement between the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the US PCAOB<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bf00c6b75b35665fcc057442bff99cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: CSRC, US Securities Regulatory Commission, PCAOB, CICC ResearchFuture choices for Chinese concept stocks: state-owned enterprises will be delisted, and most Chinese private stocks will have room for choice; Returning to Hong Kong stocks is still the general trendIn addition to state-owned enterprises and individual enterprises that may eventually fail to meet the requirements, the advancement of Sino-US regulatory cooperation will play a positive role in alleviating the delisting risk of most Chinese concept stocks. Therefore, the future outlets for Chinese concept stocks are as follows:1) Delisting of state-owned enterprises is the benchmark situation: According to the requirements of the Foreign Companies Accountability Act, foreign companies need to disclose their relationships with foreign governments and prove that they are not owned or controlled by the government, so state-owned enterprises will basically choose to delist. In fact, five state-owned enterprises, including Sinopec and PetroChina, announced the start of delisting in the United States on August 12th. It is precisely for this consideration that it is basically in line with expectations (\"Tracking of Chinese Stocks: The Meaning and Impact of Delisting of State-owned Enterprises in the United States\").2) Most Chinese private stocks are expected to reduce or even avoid the risk of delisting: If an agreement is finally reached, most companies can open access to audit papers to the PCAOB on the premise of complying with new confidentiality regulations, so they can maintain their listing in the United States. However, it is still not ruled out that some companies will be unable to meet some regulatory requirements due to sensitive information involved, and then choose to withdraw. The follow-up regulatory progress and details deserve attention.However, regardless of whether it is ultimately delisted in the United States or not, choosing to go public in Hong Kong will be the main choice for Chinese concept stocks to hedge external risks. At present, 26 companies have returned to the Hong Kong stock market through secondary listings or dual primary listings (of which 17 are secondary listings and 9 are primary listings). Looking forward, with the external environment still facing large variables, we expect more qualified Chinese concept stock companies to return to Hong Kong stocks.In terms of return methods, adopting or switching to primary listing will become the mainstream.Compared with the secondary listing, which is the \"projection\" of overseas listing entities, choosing the dual primary listing method to return to Hong Kong can prevent the listing status in Hong Kong from being affected by the overseas listing status, and at the same time, it can also be included in the scope of Hong Kong Stock Connect (\"China Stock Tracking: What does it mean to be a primary listing?\"). In fact, we have noticed that more and more companies (XPeng Motor, Keike) have chosen dual primary listings to return to the Hong Kong stock market, and companies such as Zai Lab, Bilibili and Alibaba have also applied for or completed secondary listings. Conversion of primary listing status. We estimate that if the above-mentioned companies are converted to primary listings and included in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, they are expected to bring in capital inflows of HK $45 billion.For Hong Kong stocks, the return and delisting of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong may cause liquidity disturbances to Hong Kong stocks in the short term, but in the long run, it will help optimize the structure of Hong Kong stocks and strengthen their attractiveness. We expect that the return of a large number of Chinese concept stocks and the transfer of shares to Hong Kong stock trading will indeed have a certain impact on the already not very abundant liquidity of Hong Kong stocks. At present, the average proportion of major Chinese concept stock companies trading in Hong Kong has reached about 20% (such as Alibaba 20%). We estimate that the new financing and share conversion transactions of the 27 potential returning companies may bring about an annual liquidity absorption of HK $27.7 billion (equivalent to 9.1% of the amount of funds raised by the IPO of the Hong Kong stock market in 2021). Of course, the introduction listing method (without new financing, such as Nio and Keike) can alleviate the above pressure. In the medium and long term, we believe that the return of more Chinese concept stock companies will help further optimize the structure of the Hong Kong stock market, attract capital precipitation, and then form positive feedback from high-quality companies and funds, and further consolidate the Hong Kong stock market as a regional financial center and China's \"new economy\" bridgehead \"status.Chart: Number of Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States and amount of funds raised<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144d8b967ed427e4daa458d83a227b0b\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Wind, CICC ResearchChart: U.S. Chinese concept stock market size<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9f11135d2beb26272c5668def3defe\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Wind, CICC ResearchChart: Since the reform of the listing system in 2018, 26 US Chinese concept stocks have returned to Hong Kong stocks through secondary listings and dual primary listings<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f52e8f76ba1afba52a3254685bd27dce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchNote: Data as of August 25, 2022; Valuation based on Bloomberg consensus estimatesChart: The proportion of Chinese concept stocks listed in Hong Kong in Hong Kong is on the rise, but the main transactions are still in the United States<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2d1be7b756231a69908d5549be32c9\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchChart: At present, the average proportion of major Chinese concept stock companies trading in Hong Kong is about 20%, of which Alibaba accounts for 20% and JD.com accounts for 21%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de285dce2713c3c7440e3d7576acfb27\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchChart: New financing and share conversion transactions of 27 potential returning companies may bring about an annual liquidity absorption of HK $27.7 billion<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9815f0ef8056c01bd91d075ca32e6585\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchChart: Even if 27 Chinese concept stocks are concentrated in listing in Hong Kong in 2022 and 2023, the scale of new financing is still within a historically reasonable range<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d120db1e728a7b213dfbea08a2087752\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchChart: Calculation of potential passive funds that may be brought about if a secondary listed company is included in the eligible targets of Southbound Connect<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca49dc0dc20fa89c448c0ce2c1552e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Note: Data as of August 25, 2022Source: HKEx, Wind, CICC Research Department</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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According to the announcement, the cooperation agreement is based on the laws and regulations of the two countries, respects international common practices, and in accordance with the principle of reciprocity and mutual benefit, makes a clear agreement on the cooperation between the two sides in regulatory inspection and investigation activities of relevant accounting firms, forming a cooperation framework that meets the laws and regulatory requirements of both sides. Correspondingly, the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have also issued relevant statements [2] [3].Overall, we believe that the signing of the audit supervision cooperation agreement between China and the United States is the first breakthrough since the SEC included Chinese concept stock companies listed in the United States in the \"delisting risk list\" in early March this year, which triggered a series of fluctuations.It is the first step to solve the long-standing regulatory risks that plague Chinese concept stocks, laying the foundation for further supervision cooperation between China and the United States. Looking ahead, how the regulatory agencies of the two countries will specifically advance it will be the focus. In this process, we still need to pay attention to the consistency of the requirements of China and the United States.If substantial progress is made, it may help alleviate the tail risks and short-term market pressure of most companies' delisting.The subsequent medium-term trend of Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong stock markets will still depend more on the repair of fundamentals.Based on the latest regulatory trends, we further analyze the possible impact of the signing of this agreement, the future evolution path, and the prospects of the Chinese concept stock market.The ins and outs of the Chinese concept stock issue: a long history, extensive influence, and continuous negotiationThe problem of Chinese concept stocks has a long history. This round of Chinese concept stock turmoil can be traced back to the signing of the \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\" by then President Trump at the end of 2020. At the end of 2021, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) further issued the implementation details of the bill, and in March this year, it officially gradually included companies that did not meet its requirements in the so-called \"preliminary identification list\" and entered the actual implementation stage. Up to now, a total of more than 150 Chinese concept stock companies have been on the list [4].One of the core contents of the bill is to require accounting firms of foreign companies to submit audit papers. If they fail to provide them for three consecutive years, they may face the risk of delisting. In addition, the bill requires foreign companies to disclose their relationships with foreign governments and prove that they are not owned or controlled by foreign governments. Therefore, since the implementation of this bill, regulatory uncertainty has become one of the important factors suppressing the performance of Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong-listed technology stocks.However, in response to this external uncertainty, negotiations between China and the United States have been going on. For example, after the SEC included the first batch of Chinese concept stocks in the \"preliminary identification list\" on March 10, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an announcement in the early morning of March 11 stating that it is \"willing to solve related issues through regulatory cooperation\" [5]. On March 16, Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council presided over a meeting of the Financial Committee, saying that the regulatory agencies of China and the United States have maintained good communication [6], made positive progress, and are working to form specific cooperation plans. China continues to support all kinds of enterprises to go public overseas. Not only that, but China is also promoting the revision of some supporting policies and regulations to adapt to the new external environment. For example, in December 2021 and April 2022, the State Council and the China Securities Regulatory Commission successively drafted the \"Regulations of the State Council on the Administration of Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities by Domestic Enterprises (Draft for Comment)\" and revised the \"Regulations on Strengthening the Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities by Domestic Enterprises\". Relevant Confidentiality and File Management Work (Draft for Comment) \"solicits opinions, increases the coverage of domestic companies listed in Hong Kong and the United States, and provides institutional guarantees for cross-border regulatory cooperation. Therefore, it can be seen that Sino-US regulatory cooperation is also the general direction.Chart: Summary of overseas Chinese stock market performance and major events since 2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ad838ac0bc148dfa2ed35a07c05033\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, China Securities Regulatory Commission, US Securities Regulatory Commission, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CICC Research DepartmentChart: Since 2020, the uncertainty of the external regulatory environment faced by Chinese concept stocks has continued to increase<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d563c8e97908433339870d8830d1ee54\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: China Securities Regulatory Commission, US Securities Regulatory Commission, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CICC Research DepartmentThe main contents of the Sino-US Audit Supervision Cooperation Agreement: determining the operation process and mode, and providing sensitive information processing proceduresThis cooperation agreement mainly makes specific arrangements for audit papers and regulatory cooperation issues that plague whether Chinese concept stocks can continue to be listed in the United States. Refer to the announcement of the CSRC:1) Main content: The two parties have made specific arrangements for daily inspections and law enforcement investigations to cooperate with relevant accounting firms, and agreed on important matters such as the purpose of cooperation, scope of cooperation, form of cooperation, information use, and specific data protection;2) Scope of cooperation: including assisting the other party in carrying out inspections and investigations of relevant firms. Among them, the scope of assistance provided by the Chinese side also involves some Hong Kong firms that provide audit services for Chinese concept stocks, and the audit papers are stored in the mainland;3) Collaboration method: The two parties will communicate and coordinate the inspection and investigation activity plan in advance. The United States must obtain audit papers and other documents through the Chinese regulatory authorities, and conduct interviews and inquiries with relevant personnel of the accounting firm with the participation and assistance of the Chinese side.In addition, this cooperation agreement also points out the following issues that the market is more concerned about or may be confused about, such as the content of audit papers, supervision forms and sensitive information:1) Content of the manuscript: The main function of the audit working paper is to record whether the auditor has dutifully verified the accuracy of financial information such as enterprise income and expenditure in accordance with auditing standards. Therefore, it generally does not include sensitive information such as state secrets, personal privacy or underlying enterprise data.2) Supervision object: The direct object of audit supervision is the accounting firm, not the listed company it audits;3) Form of supervision: The regulatory agency of the place of listing selects some accounting firms for inspection every year, and there is no need to inspect all audit items of listed companies in the United States every year;4) Processing of sensitive information: Clear agreements have been made on the processing and use of sensitive information that may involve, and special processing procedures have been set up for specific data such as personal information, providing a feasible path for both parties to perform their statutory regulatory duties while protecting relevant information security.It is not difficult to see that this cooperation agreement has made relevant arrangements in all aspects and links involving audit supervision operations. At the same time, there are special ways to deal with some sensitive information that may be involved. Therefore, although it remains to be seen whether the specific follow-up progress will be smooth, this cooperation agreement at least provides an operational basis and takes the first step for the follow-up regulatory cooperation between the two parties.The significance of signing the cooperation agreement between China and the United States: taking the first step of regulatory cooperation; Or alleviate market pressure and the delisting risk of most companies, and maintain smooth cross-border financing channelsCombined with the current market environment and the specific content of the agreement, we believe that this cooperation agreement is of great significance to solving the long-standing regulatory risks that have plagued Chinese concept stocks and lay the foundation for further regulatory cooperation in the future. If substantial progress is made in the end, it will help alleviate the market pressure and the delisting tail risk of some companies, and help protect the rights and interests of investors; In the medium and long term, it will help maintain smooth cross-border financing channels for Chinese enterprises and promote overseas financing for innovative enterprises. In fact, cross-border regulatory cooperation is also in line with international practice. The PCAOB of the United States has signed similar audit regulatory cooperation agreements with France, Belgium, Germany and other countries. Specifically,► First of all, the signing of the cooperation agreement provides the possibility for further cooperation in the follow-up and ultimately solving the regulatory issues of Chinese concept stocks, especially when it comes to special handling methods of sensitive information.► Secondly, it may alleviate the short-term market pressure and the tail risk of some companies' delisting. As we analyzed in \"Chinese Concept Stock Tracking: Future Ways and Possible Evolution\", although the final deadline required by the \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\" is the 2024 financial reporting season (concentrated from March to May), considering the actual implementation Many processes involved in the process may actually be much earlier, for example, to around November 2023, so there is not enough time. The signing of this cooperation agreement, if substantial progress is made in the end, can at least largely alleviate the market concerns and the tail risks of a considerable number of companies' delisting.► Thirdly, retaining the listing of Chinese concept stocks in the United States through regulatory cooperation is of positive significance to protecting the interests of investors and maintaining cross-border financing channels for Chinese companies, especially overseas financing for innovative companies. In fact, the U.S. stock market has always been an important financing channel for Chinese-funded enterprises, especially innovative enterprises. Since 2010, a total of 345 Chinese concept stocks have been listed in the United States, with an initial fundraising amount of US $76.4 billion. Even this year, 13 Chinese concept stocks have been listed in the United States.Follow-up progress: We still need to pay attention to the consistency of the requirements of the US and China; The extent and extent to which the manuscript can be provided is the keyOn the basis of signing this cooperation agreement, the follow-up regulatory agencies of the two countries will focus on how to specifically promote audit cooperation. In this process, we still need to pay attention to the consistency of the requirements of China and the United States. For example, whether the U.S. side's criteria for determining the review method and scope are consistent with the acceptable methods of China.In fact, in the latest statement, PCAOB stated that the signing of a cooperation agreement between China and the United States is important, but it is only the first step in regulatory cooperation. In the specific implementation process, the United States needs to decide by itself which companies and content it wants to review. Previously, both PCAOB and SEC officials in the United States stated that they needed full draft authority and did not accept partially abridged versions [7]. Therefore, the extent and scope to which audit papers can be provided in the end will remain the key to the subsequent regulatory cooperation between the two parties.Chart: Relevant statements of the cooperation agreement between the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the US PCAOB<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bf00c6b75b35665fcc057442bff99cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: CSRC, US Securities Regulatory Commission, PCAOB, CICC ResearchFuture choices for Chinese concept stocks: state-owned enterprises will be delisted, and most Chinese private stocks will have room for choice; Returning to Hong Kong stocks is still the general trendIn addition to state-owned enterprises and individual enterprises that may eventually fail to meet the requirements, the advancement of Sino-US regulatory cooperation will play a positive role in alleviating the delisting risk of most Chinese concept stocks. Therefore, the future outlets for Chinese concept stocks are as follows:1) Delisting of state-owned enterprises is the benchmark situation: According to the requirements of the Foreign Companies Accountability Act, foreign companies need to disclose their relationships with foreign governments and prove that they are not owned or controlled by the government, so state-owned enterprises will basically choose to delist. In fact, five state-owned enterprises, including Sinopec and PetroChina, announced the start of delisting in the United States on August 12th. It is precisely for this consideration that it is basically in line with expectations (\"Tracking of Chinese Stocks: The Meaning and Impact of Delisting of State-owned Enterprises in the United States\").2) Most Chinese private stocks are expected to reduce or even avoid the risk of delisting: If an agreement is finally reached, most companies can open access to audit papers to the PCAOB on the premise of complying with new confidentiality regulations, so they can maintain their listing in the United States. However, it is still not ruled out that some companies will be unable to meet some regulatory requirements due to sensitive information involved, and then choose to withdraw. The follow-up regulatory progress and details deserve attention.However, regardless of whether it is ultimately delisted in the United States or not, choosing to go public in Hong Kong will be the main choice for Chinese concept stocks to hedge external risks. At present, 26 companies have returned to the Hong Kong stock market through secondary listings or dual primary listings (of which 17 are secondary listings and 9 are primary listings). Looking forward, with the external environment still facing large variables, we expect more qualified Chinese concept stock companies to return to Hong Kong stocks.In terms of return methods, adopting or switching to primary listing will become the mainstream.Compared with the secondary listing, which is the \"projection\" of overseas listing entities, choosing the dual primary listing method to return to Hong Kong can prevent the listing status in Hong Kong from being affected by the overseas listing status, and at the same time, it can also be included in the scope of Hong Kong Stock Connect (\"China Stock Tracking: What does it mean to be a primary listing?\"). In fact, we have noticed that more and more companies (XPeng Motor, Keike) have chosen dual primary listings to return to the Hong Kong stock market, and companies such as Zai Lab, Bilibili and Alibaba have also applied for or completed secondary listings. Conversion of primary listing status. We estimate that if the above-mentioned companies are converted to primary listings and included in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, they are expected to bring in capital inflows of HK $45 billion.For Hong Kong stocks, the return and delisting of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong may cause liquidity disturbances to Hong Kong stocks in the short term, but in the long run, it will help optimize the structure of Hong Kong stocks and strengthen their attractiveness. We expect that the return of a large number of Chinese concept stocks and the transfer of shares to Hong Kong stock trading will indeed have a certain impact on the already not very abundant liquidity of Hong Kong stocks. At present, the average proportion of major Chinese concept stock companies trading in Hong Kong has reached about 20% (such as Alibaba 20%). We estimate that the new financing and share conversion transactions of the 27 potential returning companies may bring about an annual liquidity absorption of HK $27.7 billion (equivalent to 9.1% of the amount of funds raised by the IPO of the Hong Kong stock market in 2021). Of course, the introduction listing method (without new financing, such as Nio and Keike) can alleviate the above pressure. In the medium and long term, we believe that the return of more Chinese concept stock companies will help further optimize the structure of the Hong Kong stock market, attract capital precipitation, and then form positive feedback from high-quality companies and funds, and further consolidate the Hong Kong stock market as a regional financial center and China's \"new economy\" bridgehead \"status.Chart: Number of Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States and amount of funds raised<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144d8b967ed427e4daa458d83a227b0b\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Wind, CICC ResearchChart: U.S. Chinese concept stock market size<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9f11135d2beb26272c5668def3defe\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Wind, CICC ResearchChart: Since the reform of the listing system in 2018, 26 US Chinese concept stocks have returned to Hong Kong stocks through secondary listings and dual primary listings<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f52e8f76ba1afba52a3254685bd27dce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchNote: Data as of August 25, 2022; Valuation based on Bloomberg consensus estimatesChart: The proportion of Chinese concept stocks listed in Hong Kong in Hong Kong is on the rise, but the main transactions are still in the United States<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2d1be7b756231a69908d5549be32c9\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchChart: At present, the average proportion of major Chinese concept stock companies trading in Hong Kong is about 20%, of which Alibaba accounts for 20% and JD.com accounts for 21%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de285dce2713c3c7440e3d7576acfb27\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchChart: New financing and share conversion transactions of 27 potential returning companies may bring about an annual liquidity absorption of HK $27.7 billion<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9815f0ef8056c01bd91d075ca32e6585\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchChart: Even if 27 Chinese concept stocks are concentrated in listing in Hong Kong in 2022 and 2023, the scale of new financing is still within a historically reasonable range<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d120db1e728a7b213dfbea08a2087752\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Bloomberg, Wind, CICC ResearchChart: Calculation of potential passive funds that may be brought about if a secondary listed company is included in the eligible targets of Southbound Connect<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca49dc0dc20fa89c448c0ce2c1552e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Note: Data as of August 25, 2022Source: HKEx, Wind, CICC Research Department</body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c16c8e006d32178191cb5241b3224fc","relate_stocks":{"KWEB":"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares","CQQQ":"中国科技指数ETF-Guggenheim"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133824414","content_text":"作者：刘刚 寇玥 张巍瀚等北京时间8月26日晚，中国证监会网站发布公告，中国证监会、财政部与美国监管机构签署审计合作协议[1]。公告表示，合作协议依据两国法律法规，尊重国际通行做法，按照对等互利原则，就双方对相关会计师事务所合作开展监管检查和调查活动做出了明确约定，形成符合双方法规和监管要求的合作框架。相应的，美国公众公司会计监督委员会(PCAOB)和美国证监会(SEC)也发表了相关声明[2][3]。整体来看，我们认为中美签署审计监管合作协议，是继今年3月初SEC依据《外国公司问责法》细则将在美上市中概股公司纳入“退市风险名单”引发一系列波动以来取得的首个突破性进展，是解决困扰中概股由来已久监管风险的第一步，为接下来中美双方监管开展进一步合作打下基础。往前看，后续两国监管机构如何具体推进将是重点，这一过程中仍需要关注中美双方要求的一致性。如果取得实质性进展，或将有助于缓解多数公司退市的尾部风险和市场短期压力，而后续中概股和港股市场的中期走势仍将更多取决于基本面的修复情况。基于最新的监管动向，我们进一步对此次协议签署的可能影响、未来的演变路径、中概股市场的前景做出分析。中概股问题的来龙去脉：由来已久、影响广泛、持续协商中概股问题由来已久。此轮中概股风波最早可以追溯到2020年底时任总统特朗普签署《外国公司问责法》。2021年底，美国证监会SEC进一步出台了该法案的实施细则，并于今年3月开始正式将不符合其要求的公司逐步列入所谓“初步识别名单”，进入实际执行阶段。截至目前，已经有总计超过150家中概股公司上榜[4]。该法案的一个核心内容，是要求外国公司的会计事务所提交审计底稿，若连续三年无法提供，或将面临退市风险。此外，该法案还要求外国公司披露其与外国政府之间的关系并证明没有被外国政府所有或控制。因此这一法案实施以来，监管不确定性就成为压制中概股和港股上市科技股表现的重要因素之一。不过针对这一外部不确定性，中美双方协商也一直在进行。例如，3月10日SEC将首批中概股列入“初步识别名单”后，中国证监会3月11日凌晨发布公告表示“愿通过监管合作解决相关问题”[5]。3月16日，国务院副总理刘鹤主持金融委会议表示，中美双方监管机构保持了良好沟通[6]，已取得积极进展，正在致力于形成具体合作方案，中方继续支持各类企业到境外上市。不仅如此，中方也在推进修改一些配套政策法规以适应新的外部环境。例如2021年12月和2022年4月，国务院和证监会先后对起草《国务院关于境内企业境外发行证券和上市的管理规定(征求意见稿)》与修订《关于加强境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定(征求意见稿)》征求意见，增加对赴中国香港和美国上市的境内企业的覆盖，为跨境监管合作提供制度保障，这也为中美监管双方合作留出了一定空间。因此可以看出，中美监管合作也是大方向。图表：2020年以来海外中资股市场表现及主要事件梳理资料来源：Bloomberg，中国证监会，美国证监会，港交所，中金公司研究部图表：2020年以来，中概股面临的外部监管环境不确定性持续增加资料来源：中国证监会，美国证监会，港交所，中金公司研究部中美审计监管合作协议的主要内容：确定操作流程与方式，提供敏感信息处理程序此次合作协议主要针对困扰中概股能否继续在美上市的审计底稿和监管合作问题做出了具体安排。参照证监会公告：1) 主要内容：就双方对相关会计师事务所合作开展日常检查与执法调查做出了具体安排，约定了合作目的、合作范围、合作形式、信息使用、特定数据保护等重要事项;2) 合作范围：包括协助对方开展对相关事务所的检查和调查。其中，中方提供协助的范围也涉及部分为中概股提供审计服务、且审计底稿存放在内地的香港事务所;3) 协作方式：双方将提前就检查和调查活动计划进行沟通协调，美方须通过中方监管部门获取审计底稿等文件，在中方参与和协助下对会计师事务所相关人员开展访谈和问询。此外，此次合作协议还指出了以下关于审计底稿内容、监管形式和敏感信息等市场较为关注或者可能混淆的问题：1) 底稿内容：审计工作底稿的主要功能是记载审计师是否依照审计准则尽职尽责地验证企业收入支出等财务信息准确性，因此一般并不包括国家秘密、个人隐私或企业底层数据等敏感信息。2) 监管对象：审计监管的直接对象是会计师事务所，而非其审计的上市公司;3) 监管形式：上市地监管机构每年抽选部分会计师事务所进行检查，无须每年检查全部在美上市公司审计项目;4) 敏感信息处理：对可能涉及敏感信息的处理和使用做出了明确约定，针对个人信息等特定数据设置了专门处理程序，为双方履行法定监管职责的同时保护相关信息安全提供了可行路径。不难看出，此次合作协议在涉及审计监管操作的各个方面和环节都做了相关安排。同时，对于可能涉及到的一些敏感信息有专门处理的方式。因此，虽然后续具体进展是否顺利还有待观察，但这一合作协议至少为后续双方监管合作提供了操作基础、迈出了第一步。中美签署合作协议的意义：迈出监管合作的第一步;或缓解市场压力和多数公司退市风险、维持跨境融资渠道畅通结合当前的市场环境和协议具体内容，我们认为，此次合作协议对于解决困扰中概股由来已久的监管风险具有重要意义，为后续进一步开展监管合作打下基础。如果最终取得实质性进展，将有助于缓解市场压力和部分公司的退市尾部风险，有助于保护投资者权益;中长期有助于维持中国企业跨境融资渠道畅通、促进创新企业海外融资。实际上，跨境监管合作也符合国际惯例，美国PCAOB与法国、比利时、德国等多个国家也都签署了类似的审计监管合作协议。具体来看，► 首先，合作协议的签署为后续开展进一步合作并最终解决中概股监管问题提供了可能，尤其是涉及到敏感信息的专门处理方式。► 其次，或缓解短期市场压力和部分公司退市的尾部风险。如我们在《中概股追踪：未来出路与可能演变》分析，尽管《外国公司问责法》要求的最终截止日是2024年的财报季(集中在3~5月)，但考虑到实际执行过程所涉及到的很多流程，实际时间可能要早很多，例如提前到2023年11月前后，因此时间并不充裕。此次合作协议的签署，如果最终取得实质性进展，至少可以在很大程度上缓解市场的担忧情绪和相当一部分公司退市的尾部风险。► 再次，通过监管合作保留中概股在美上市，对保护投资者利益、维持中国企业跨境融资渠道，特别是创新类企业海外融资都有积极意义。实际上，美股市场一直是中资企业、尤其是创新类企业的重要融资渠道，2010年以来累计345家中概股赴美上市，首发募资金额764亿美元。即便今年以来仍有13家中概股赴美上市。后续进展：仍需关注美方与中方要求的一致性;多大程度和范围内能够提供底稿是关键在签署这一合作协议的基础上，后续两国监管机构如何就具体推进审计合作将是重点。在这一过程中，仍需要关注中美双方要求的一致性，例如，美方对于审查方式和审查范围的认定标准，是否与中方可以接受的方式一致。实际上，在最新声明中，PCAOB表示中美签署合作协议固然重要、但只是监管合作的第一步。在具体执行过程中，美方需要自行决定希望审查的公司和内容。此前，美方不论是PCAOB还是SEC官员也都表示，需要全面底稿权限而不接受部分删节的版本[7]。因此，最终在多大程度和范围内能够提供审计底稿，仍将是后续双方监管合作的关键。图表：中国证监会与美国PCAOB对于合作协议的相关表述资料来源：中国证监会，美国证监会，PCAOB，中金公司研究部中概股的未来选择：国企退市、多数中资民营股将有选择空间；回归港股仍是大势所趋除了国企和个别可能最终无法满足要求的企业，中美监管合作的推进，对于缓解多数中概股的退市风险将起到积极作用，因此未来中概股的出路主要有以下几种：1) 国企退市是基准情形：根据《外国公司问责法》要求，外国公司需披露其与外国政府之间的关系并证明其没有被政府所有或控制，因此国企基本都将选择退市。实际上，中国石化、中国石油等5家国企于8月12日宣布启动美国退市，也正是出于此项考虑，基本符合预期(《中概股追踪：国企在美退市的含义与影响》)。2) 多数中资民营股有望降低甚至或避免退市风险：若最终达成一致，多数企业可在符合保密新规的前提下向PCAOB开放审计底稿访问权限，因此可以维持在美上市。但是，仍不排除部分企业会由于涉及敏感信息而无法满足一些监管要求，继而选择退，后续监管进展和细节值得关注。但无论最终在美退市与否，选择赴港上市都将是中概股对冲外部风险的主要选择。目前已有26家公司通过二次上市或双重主要上市回归港股(其中17家为二次上市，9家为主要上市)。往前看，在外部环境依然面临较大变数情况下，我们预计更多符合条件的中概股公司回归港股。回归方式上，采用或转为主要上市将成为主流。相比作为海外上市主体“投影”的二次上市，选择双重主要上市方式回港可以使在港上市地位不受海外上市状况影响，同时还可纳入港股通范围(《中概股追踪：转成主要上市意味着什么?》)。实际上，我们注意到越来越多的公司(小鹏汽车、贝壳)选择双重主要上市回归港股，且再鼎医药、哔哩哔哩和阿里巴巴等公司也已经申请或完成了二次上市向主要上市地位的转换。我们测算，上述公司如果转为主要上市并纳入沪港通后，有望带来450亿港元的资金流入。对港股而言，中概股回港和退市或对港股短期有流动性扰动，但长期有助于优化港股结构并强化吸引力。我们预计大量中概股回归和股份转到港股交易，的确将会对港股本就不非常充裕的流动性造成一定影响，目前已经回归的主要中概股公司在港交易的比例平均已达20%左右(如阿里巴巴20%)。我们测算，27家潜在回归公司新增融资和股份转换交易可能带来每年277亿港元的流动性吸收(相当于2021年全年港股主板IPO募资金额的9.1%)。当然，采用介绍上市方式(不新增融资，例如蔚来和贝壳)可以减轻上述压力。中长期看，我们认为更多中概股公司的回归有助于进一步优化港股市场结构，吸引资金沉淀，进而形成优质公司和资金的正反馈，进一步巩固港股市场作为区域金融中心以及中国“新经济桥头堡”的地位。图表：中概股赴美上市数量及募资金额资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部图表：美国中概股市场规模资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部图表：2018年上市制度改革以来，已有26支美国中概股通过二次上市和双重主要上市回归港股资料来源：Bloomberg，Wind，中金公司研究部注：数据截止至2022年8月25日;估值基于Bloomberg一致预期图表：赴港上市中概股在香港部分的占比呈现上升趋势，但主要成交仍还在美国资料来源：Bloomberg，Wind，中金公司研究部图表：目前已经回归的主要中概股公司在港交易的比例平均在20%左右，其中阿里巴巴20%、京东为21%资料来源：Bloomberg，Wind，中金公司研究部图表：27家潜在回归公司新增融资和股份转换交易可能带来每年277亿港元的流动性吸收资料来源：Bloomberg，Wind，中金公司研究部图表：即便27家中概股集中在2022年和2023年赴港上市，新增融资规模也仍在历史较合理的范围内资料来源：Bloomberg，Wind，中金公司研究部图表：若二次上市公司被纳入港股通合资格标的，可能带来的潜在被动资金测算注：数据截止至2022年8月25日资料来源：港交所，Wind，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KWEB":0.9,"CQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2507,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}