To The Moon

TSMC( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ) just delivered a jaw-dropping Q1 net profit of NT$361.6 billion ($10.99 billion), smashing market estimates of NT$354.644 billion and signaling a potential semiconductor resurgence. Meanwhile, ASML’s latest quarter painted a gloomier picture, with orders falling short of expectations due to a sluggish chip market and looming U.S. tariff threats. As these two titans navigate choppy waters, investors are left wondering: How will tariffs shake up their businesses? Can semiconductor margins weather the storm? And is TSMC’s rebound a golden opportunity—or a risky gamble? Let’s unpack it all. Tariffs: A Storm Brewing for TSMC and ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ TSMC

On the 17th of April, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$) – the principal foundry for both Nvidia and AMD chips – announced its Q1 results. By all accounts, the company did well with 839.25 billion New Taiwan dollars (NT$) in revenue versus expectations of NT$ 835.13 billion and a net income of NT$361.56 billion versus an expectation of NT$354.14 billion. However, the general investing public hasn't been very enthusiastic about the stock over and above general market sentiment despite these solid earnings.  In fact, it displayed a near-constant underperformance relative to the broad market S&P 500 ($S&P 500(.SPX)$ ) both in the lead

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Yes, TSMC beat expectations and issued strong guidance. But let’s not ignore some key risks beneath the surface.Why I’m still cautious:China Tensions Haven’t Gone AwayTSMC remains geopolitically exposed. Rising US-China tech tensions could disrupt global chip supply chains—or spark regulatory headaches.Guidance Might Be Priced InThe stock has already run up significantly. With semis up across the board this year, how much of this "comeback" is already baked into valuations?Demand Is Still UnevenConsumer electronics, smartphones, and automotive chips are still soft. AI is the buzzword, but it can’t carry the entire sector on its own—yet.My Take:TSMC’s print is solid, but I’m not chasing here. Great company,

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC just smashed expectations—and that’s a big deal.EPS and revenue both beat, but more importantly, their forward guidance is strong. That’s not just good news for TSMC—it’s a signal the entire semiconductor cycle may be bottoming out.Here’s why I’m bullish:AI Demand Is Real and GrowingTSMC is riding a wave of AI-driven chip demand. With Nvidia, AMD, and even Apple leaning heavily on advanced nodes, TSMC’s position as the dominant foundry becomes even more valuable.Inventory Correction Appears Behind UsManagement noted that clients have worked through excess inventory. That’s huge—channel normalization means new orders can now flow, not just replacements.Capex Intact = Confidence

Feeling is good  good future is there e

A damn solid company in semiconductor field

Yes. Need commodities 

$ASML Holding NV( $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ )$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ )$ $NVIDIA Corp( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ )$ $Apple(AAPL)$ The semiconductor industry is feeling the heat, and ASML’s latest earnings miss is sounding the alarm. On April 15, 2025, ASML Holding NV reported Q1 orders of €3.94 billion ($4.47 billion), a stark shortfall from the €4.82 billion analysts expected. With U.S. tariff threats looming and a sluggish chip market, all eyes are on TSMC, ASML’s biggest customer, which reports earnings tomorrow, April 17. Can TSMC weather the storm, or are we in for more tur

TSMC Earnings In-depth Review: Only Tariffs Can Defeat the Invincible Chip Giant TSMC released its financial report for the first quarter of 2025 on April 17 (ending March 2025), with the following key points: 1) Its revenue reached 25.53 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 35.3% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, which is higher than the midpoint of the earnings guidance. 2) The gross margin reached 58.8%, a decrease of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter and an increase of 5.7% year-over-year. The guidance was 57% to 59%. The continued increase in the proportion of 3nm and 5nm contributed to the continued rise in the average selling price of the company's products. 3) Wafer process structure: The proportion of 5nm and below increased from 46% in the same period last year to 58%. High Performance

Standing on the sidelines while trump burns himself out. 

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 💥🚀⚙️ TSMC Turns Up the Heat, 30 Percent Price Hike, Big Chips, Bigger Moves ⚙️🚀💥 🚨📰🗞️ TSMC’s 30% Price Hike for U.S.,Fabs, A Strategic Move Amid Soaring Demand I’ve been closely following the semiconductor industry, and TSMC’s recent announcement to raise prices by 30% for its U.S.,based fabrication plants has caught my attention. As the world’s leading chip foundry, TSMC ($TSM) is making a bold call, one that reflects both the intense demand for its advanced chips and the complex realities of operating in the U.S.,market. Let me unpack what’s driving this decision, what it means for the industry, and why it’s such a pivotal moment. ⚙️ Why the Price Increase? From where I stand, this move is rooted in a few

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ 🤖🎯 ASML: The Unrivalled Architect of the AI Revolution, A Platinum Blueprint for Exponential Returns in a Tariff, Turbulent World 🎯🤖 Executive Summary ASML, the sole provider of EUV photolithography systems, is the backbone of the AI-driven semiconductor boom. Despite a 5.15% post-earnings drop to $648.01, its Q1 2025 results (€7.74 billion revenue, 54% gross margin) and FY25 guidance (€30 billion, €35 billion) highlight its monopoly power and growth potential. At a P/E of 25.7x (18-month low), ASML offers a generational entry point with 20%, 47% upside over 12, 24 months. My analysis uses discounted cash flow, Monte Carlo simulations, technical insights, game theory for tariff risks, and ESG alignment to deliver a definiti

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$  

1."Smart traders look to sell premium" when the VIX is over 40, thus taking advantage of the elevated volatility and hence elevated premiums. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ over 40 isn't a sustainable event, and eventually fear subsides and the VIX calms and comes back down.2. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ announces earnings on Thursday, April 17 before market open. Been seeing some differences in expected move from various data providers, but essentially the move is in the 5-7% range.Optionselling Trade :Am looking to write a put ladder, selling-to-open the April 25 expiration and targeting the following areas - recent bottom at 134 - unfilled gap at 103 - and maybe the 115 areaPoints To Conside

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ is scheduled to release its full Q1 2025 earnings results on 17 April 2025, before the market opens. The consensus estimate for the revenues is expected to be between $25 billion and $25.8 billion. Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $25.2 billion, indicating a rise of 33.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported actuals. Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.02 per share, implying a 46.4% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Last week, TSM has released its Q1 revenue figures last week, TSM revenue reached NT$839.25 billion (approximately $25.5 - $25.6 billion USD). This represents a strong 42% increase year-over-year, the fastest growth rate since 2022.  

Fellow traders, there’s more drama to watch.Someone has placed a massive bet that chip stocks won’t fall below their previous lows before April 25th. Specifically, the trades involve selling $SMH 20250425 175.0 PUT$ , $TSM 20250425 130.0 PUT$ , and $MU 20250425 60.0 PUT$ . The positions are for 120,000 contracts, 70,000 contracts, and 50,000 contracts, respectively.If this isn’t based on insider information, then something’s definitely fishy.However, as my regular readers know, such blatantly targeted large trades are like waving cash in front of market makers—they’re irresistible bait.It’s

$阿斯麦(ASML)$  670-

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ is expecting to release its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings results on 16 April 2025 before the market open. The consensus estimate for the revenues for the Q1 2025 quarter is expected to come in at $8.08 billion which would indicate a year-over-year change of +40.7%. For the earnings per share, the consensus estimate is expected at $5.99 per share which would represent a change of +81.1% from the year-ago quarter. ASML Holding (ASML) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Decline By 1.35% ASML last positive earnings call on 29 Jan 2025 saw its share price decline by 1.35% since. The earnings call presented a strong financial performance for Q4 2024, with revenue and gross margin exceeding expectations. The company highlighted

Earnings Calendar (14 Apr 2025) I am interested in the earnings of Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America, United, ASML, TSMC and Netflix. Let us look at TSMC. The Technical Analysis has a “Strong Sell” rating, in contrast to the “Strong Buy” recommendation from Analysts Sentiments. The target price of 241.69 suggests a (potential) upside of over 53%. Below is the financial performance review using GROK: Revenue Growth Trend: TSMC's revenue has shown strong growth, increasing from $25.724 billion in 2015 to $88.552 billion in 2024. The 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue is 13.8%, reflecting robust expansion. Key Milestones: Revenue growth was particularly strong in 2020 (34.3%) and 2021 (20.5%), driven by global demand for semiconductors. There was a slight decline of 6.3

The valuation gap between the biggest stocks (the megacaps) and the rest is unlikely to persist indefinitely.“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s,” declared a former winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1998. This famous quote clearly demonstrates how even the sharpest analytical minds can struggle to forecast the pace of technological progress.It is now increasingly consensus that a booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry is driving the next technology revolution. For investors, however, the most important question to address is whether the expectations embedded in financial markets today project a realistic path ahead.AI stocks and index concentrationThe current composition of the

TSMC( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ) just delivered a jaw-dropping Q1 net profit of NT$361.6 billion ($10.99 billion), smashing market estimates of NT$354.644 billion and signaling a potential semiconductor resurgence. Meanwhile, ASML’s latest quarter painted a gloomier picture, with orders falling short of expectations due to a sluggish chip market and looming U.S. tariff threats. As these two titans navigate choppy waters, investors are left wondering: How will tariffs shake up their businesses? Can semiconductor margins weather the storm? And is TSMC’s rebound a golden opportunity—or a risky gamble? Let’s unpack it all. Tariffs: A Storm Brewing for TSMC and ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ TSMC

On the 17th of April, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$) – the principal foundry for both Nvidia and AMD chips – announced its Q1 results. By all accounts, the company did well with 839.25 billion New Taiwan dollars (NT$) in revenue versus expectations of NT$ 835.13 billion and a net income of NT$361.56 billion versus an expectation of NT$354.14 billion. However, the general investing public hasn't been very enthusiastic about the stock over and above general market sentiment despite these solid earnings.  In fact, it displayed a near-constant underperformance relative to the broad market S&P 500 ($S&P 500(.SPX)$ ) both in the lead

Fellow traders, there’s more drama to watch.Someone has placed a massive bet that chip stocks won’t fall below their previous lows before April 25th. Specifically, the trades involve selling $SMH 20250425 175.0 PUT$ , $TSM 20250425 130.0 PUT$ , and $MU 20250425 60.0 PUT$ . The positions are for 120,000 contracts, 70,000 contracts, and 50,000 contracts, respectively.If this isn’t based on insider information, then something’s definitely fishy.However, as my regular readers know, such blatantly targeted large trades are like waving cash in front of market makers—they’re irresistible bait.It’s

$ASML Holding NV( $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ )$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ )$ $NVIDIA Corp( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ )$ $Apple(AAPL)$ The semiconductor industry is feeling the heat, and ASML’s latest earnings miss is sounding the alarm. On April 15, 2025, ASML Holding NV reported Q1 orders of €3.94 billion ($4.47 billion), a stark shortfall from the €4.82 billion analysts expected. With U.S. tariff threats looming and a sluggish chip market, all eyes are on TSMC, ASML’s biggest customer, which reports earnings tomorrow, April 17. Can TSMC weather the storm, or are we in for more tur

TSMC Earnings In-depth Review: Only Tariffs Can Defeat the Invincible Chip Giant TSMC released its financial report for the first quarter of 2025 on April 17 (ending March 2025), with the following key points: 1) Its revenue reached 25.53 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 35.3% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, which is higher than the midpoint of the earnings guidance. 2) The gross margin reached 58.8%, a decrease of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter and an increase of 5.7% year-over-year. The guidance was 57% to 59%. The continued increase in the proportion of 3nm and 5nm contributed to the continued rise in the average selling price of the company's products. 3) Wafer process structure: The proportion of 5nm and below increased from 46% in the same period last year to 58%. High Performance

The valuation gap between the biggest stocks (the megacaps) and the rest is unlikely to persist indefinitely.“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s,” declared a former winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1998. This famous quote clearly demonstrates how even the sharpest analytical minds can struggle to forecast the pace of technological progress.It is now increasingly consensus that a booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry is driving the next technology revolution. For investors, however, the most important question to address is whether the expectations embedded in financial markets today project a realistic path ahead.AI stocks and index concentrationThe current composition of the

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ is expecting to release its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings results on 16 April 2025 before the market open. The consensus estimate for the revenues for the Q1 2025 quarter is expected to come in at $8.08 billion which would indicate a year-over-year change of +40.7%. For the earnings per share, the consensus estimate is expected at $5.99 per share which would represent a change of +81.1% from the year-ago quarter. ASML Holding (ASML) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Decline By 1.35% ASML last positive earnings call on 29 Jan 2025 saw its share price decline by 1.35% since. The earnings call presented a strong financial performance for Q4 2024, with revenue and gross margin exceeding expectations. The company highlighted

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ is scheduled to release its full Q1 2025 earnings results on 17 April 2025, before the market opens. The consensus estimate for the revenues is expected to be between $25 billion and $25.8 billion. Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $25.2 billion, indicating a rise of 33.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported actuals. Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.02 per share, implying a 46.4% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Last week, TSM has released its Q1 revenue figures last week, TSM revenue reached NT$839.25 billion (approximately $25.5 - $25.6 billion USD). This represents a strong 42% increase year-over-year, the fastest growth rate since 2022.  

Earnings Calendar (14 Apr 2025) I am interested in the earnings of Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America, United, ASML, TSMC and Netflix. Let us look at TSMC. The Technical Analysis has a “Strong Sell” rating, in contrast to the “Strong Buy” recommendation from Analysts Sentiments. The target price of 241.69 suggests a (potential) upside of over 53%. Below is the financial performance review using GROK: Revenue Growth Trend: TSMC's revenue has shown strong growth, increasing from $25.724 billion in 2015 to $88.552 billion in 2024. The 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue is 13.8%, reflecting robust expansion. Key Milestones: Revenue growth was particularly strong in 2020 (34.3%) and 2021 (20.5%), driven by global demand for semiconductors. There was a slight decline of 6.3

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ 🤖🎯 ASML: The Unrivalled Architect of the AI Revolution, A Platinum Blueprint for Exponential Returns in a Tariff, Turbulent World 🎯🤖 Executive Summary ASML, the sole provider of EUV photolithography systems, is the backbone of the AI-driven semiconductor boom. Despite a 5.15% post-earnings drop to $648.01, its Q1 2025 results (€7.74 billion revenue, 54% gross margin) and FY25 guidance (€30 billion, €35 billion) highlight its monopoly power and growth potential. At a P/E of 25.7x (18-month low), ASML offers a generational entry point with 20%, 47% upside over 12, 24 months. My analysis uses discounted cash flow, Monte Carlo simulations, technical insights, game theory for tariff risks, and ESG alignment to deliver a definiti

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 💥🚀⚙️ TSMC Turns Up the Heat, 30 Percent Price Hike, Big Chips, Bigger Moves ⚙️🚀💥 🚨📰🗞️ TSMC’s 30% Price Hike for U.S.,Fabs, A Strategic Move Amid Soaring Demand I’ve been closely following the semiconductor industry, and TSMC’s recent announcement to raise prices by 30% for its U.S.,based fabrication plants has caught my attention. As the world’s leading chip foundry, TSMC ($TSM) is making a bold call, one that reflects both the intense demand for its advanced chips and the complex realities of operating in the U.S.,market. Let me unpack what’s driving this decision, what it means for the industry, and why it’s such a pivotal moment. ⚙️ Why the Price Increase? From where I stand, this move is rooted in a few

1."Smart traders look to sell premium" when the VIX is over 40, thus taking advantage of the elevated volatility and hence elevated premiums. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ over 40 isn't a sustainable event, and eventually fear subsides and the VIX calms and comes back down.2. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ announces earnings on Thursday, April 17 before market open. Been seeing some differences in expected move from various data providers, but essentially the move is in the 5-7% range.Optionselling Trade :Am looking to write a put ladder, selling-to-open the April 25 expiration and targeting the following areas - recent bottom at 134 - unfilled gap at 103 - and maybe the 115 areaPoints To Conside

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC just smashed expectations—and that’s a big deal.EPS and revenue both beat, but more importantly, their forward guidance is strong. That’s not just good news for TSMC—it’s a signal the entire semiconductor cycle may be bottoming out.Here’s why I’m bullish:AI Demand Is Real and GrowingTSMC is riding a wave of AI-driven chip demand. With Nvidia, AMD, and even Apple leaning heavily on advanced nodes, TSMC’s position as the dominant foundry becomes even more valuable.Inventory Correction Appears Behind UsManagement noted that clients have worked through excess inventory. That’s huge—channel normalization means new orders can now flow, not just replacements.Capex Intact = Confidence

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Yes, TSMC beat expectations and issued strong guidance. But let’s not ignore some key risks beneath the surface.Why I’m still cautious:China Tensions Haven’t Gone AwayTSMC remains geopolitically exposed. Rising US-China tech tensions could disrupt global chip supply chains—or spark regulatory headaches.Guidance Might Be Priced InThe stock has already run up significantly. With semis up across the board this year, how much of this "comeback" is already baked into valuations?Demand Is Still UnevenConsumer electronics, smartphones, and automotive chips are still soft. AI is the buzzword, but it can’t carry the entire sector on its own—yet.My Take:TSMC’s print is solid, but I’m not chasing here. Great company,

A damn solid company in semiconductor field

Feeling is good  good future is there e

Standing on the sidelines while trump burns himself out. 

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$  

Yes. Need commodities 

$阿斯麦(ASML)$  670-