To The Moon

I see a BOJ tightening causing a temporary volatility spike rather than a sustained unwind. Much of the yen carry trade risk is already priced in, and unless we see abrupt yen strength or disorderly moves in global yields, this is more of an adjustment than a liquidity shock. Clarity from the BOJ should help stabilize markets. For a delayed Santa Rally, I’m not going fully defensive or all-cash. I prefer keeping dry powder while selectively buying dips in quality growth and AI names. In a later, narrower rally, stock selection matters more than broad exposure. BOJ-driven liquidity fears dominate near-term headlines, but earnings and Fed policy remain the real anchors. As long as corporate results hold and the Fed stays supportive, much of the BOJ pressure can be absorbed. Santa may arrive

Main Effects of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) Rate Hike on US MarketsThe Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% at its December 18-19, 2025 meeting, marking the highest level in about 30 years. This continues its gradual normalization from ultra-low (and previously negative) rates. While Japan's rates remain low compared to the US (where the Federal Reserve's rate is around 4-5%), even small hikes can influence global markets through interconnected channels.1. Yen Carry Trade Unwinding (The Primary Channel)The most significant impact comes from the yen carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow in low-yielding yen and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, often US stocks, bonds, or tech-heavy equities.How it works — Low Japanese rates make borrowing

The BoJ decision matters less for the 25 bps move itself and more for what it symbolises. On a potential market reversal A “normal” BoJ hike would close the final chapter of ultra-easy global monetary policy. Psychologically, this is the shoe many markets have been waiting to see drop. The risk is not Japan per se, but the secondary effects. Higher Japanese yields can encourage capital repatriation, putting upward pressure on global yields and the USD funding complex. That tends to tighten financial conditions at the margin, which is unfriendly for richly valued US equities, especially momentum-driven AI and growth names. That said, a single BoJ hike is unlikely to be a standalone trigger for a full reversal unless it coincides with rising US yields, hawkish Fed repricing, or disappointing

$American Eagle Outfitters(AEO)$ Haven't commented on any single stock for a while now. AEO is looking "interesting". (Hat tip @RealSimpleAriel for spotting the idea)Remember:- Apparel is hot. They are one of the leading sectors at the moment. Maybe it's a Christmas thing. Retail reported generally very upbeat stats recently.- The entire group is in a strong UP TREND- AEO is one of the leaders in that groupHowever:- Some of them, eg AEO are super extended now. $ANF too, maybe $VSCO . AEO is almost 12x its ATR from its 50SMA, whilst 10X is already very extended (another great tip from @jfsrev ). - Extended does NOT mean it must correct. Markets and stocks can stay overbought for a very long time. However, the risk reward for a short is looking very

Relative Strength Emerging Across Pockets of the Market During the Four-Day Selloff4 straight days of sustained weakness, wiping out 13 days of index gains since the post-market breadth exercise I shared below, posted ahead of the first red day where I clearly flagged the need for caution. This is a simple exercise anyone could apply, as it’s ultimately a function of short-term breadth extension—levels where the market has historically shown a strong tendency to retrace once breadth becomes this stretched.The latest session was largely news-driven imho, with mega-cap tech in $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ and $Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF(MGK)$ pressured after reports that funding for

Over the past three weeks, the high probability trades have performed with a high level of accuracy. These setups always include a target price and an invalidation level which, in most cases, is the Central Weekly Level (CWL).The purpose of posting targets is to establish an objective metric based on price action. This gives you an edge in anticipating potential reversals, which is why targets are placed at these specific zones.Take this week, for example. The Weekly Compass anticipated a bullish move for $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ , targeting $505.4 for a 1.2% upside. Price reached that level as early as Monday afternoon but retraced quickly on Tuesday. This illustrates the importance of using levels: once a target is reached, it becomes new su

$ASML 20260102 1120.0 CALL$  ASML covered calls: took profit early (made ~$2K, missed ~$8K) Sharing a lesson from an ASML covered call. I sold 10 calls a bit too aggressively. If I’m honest, it was pure reckless greed because the premium looked great, so I sized up. Ate up margin like crazy cos it was majority naked call.  I bought them back for about $2K profit, but if I’d held longer, the premium kept decaying and it would’ve been closer to ~$8K. In hindsight, I exited “too early”. The real takeaway isn’t just timing, it’s position sizing. When you sell too many calls, your emotions start managing the trade for you! And as expiry gets closer, gamma risk ramps up: the option’s delta can change fast on small s

Both gold and silver are experiencing significant strength, but their drivers and potential paths for 2026 differ. Here is a breakdown of the key drivers, performance outlooks, and institutional forecasts for both metals over the next 12 months and beyond. 🏆 Key Drivers for Gold in 2026 The primary forces expected to influence gold prices in the coming year stem from macroeconomic conditions and sustained demand: · Geopolitics & Market Risk: Ongoing trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and rising "tail-risk" events continue to boost gold's safe-haven appeal. · Monetary Policy & the Dollar: Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and a potential weaker U.S. dollar would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold. · Central Bank Demand: This remains a structural pillar of suppo

Hi Tigers, Welcome to “What the Tigers say”This is a weekly column planned to share the great opinion from Tigers on a specific topic and today our Theme is Santa Rally & BOJ.As markets head into December, the usual expectations of a Santa Rally are being tested by an unexpected source: the Bank of Japan. With the BOJ signaling a potential shift away from ultra-loose policy, investors are reassessing one of the longest-standing pillars of global liquidity.For years, Japan’s easy money environment has supported yen-funded carry trades and risk appetite across U.S. equities, crypto, and growth assets. Even a modest policy shift now raises a critical question:Is this just a temporary pause in year-end momentum — or the start of a deeper pullback driven by a global liquidity reset?This wee

🚀 Silver Breaks All-Time Highs: Is $100 Next or Is the Top In? $64. It finally happened. Silver has officially smashed through historical resistance, breaking new all-time highs and doing something almost unthinkable: flipping the price of Oil. Everywhere you look—Twitter/X, headlines, Tiger—the buzz is deafening. But for every trader celebrating, there are ten others staring at the chart asking the most dangerous question in finance: “Did I miss the boat?” Let’s cut through the noise. Here is the real data on why Silver is moving, why this rally is structurally different from 2011 or 1980, and the massive risks you need to manage right now. 1️⃣ The "Dual Engine" Driving the Melt-Up Silver is often called “Gold’s volatile little brother,” but that view is outdated. Gold is a safe haven; Si

I have held $Micron Technology(MU)$ in the past but now I just have $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$. Bigger, better, faster, stronger. Not bothered about tomorrow. More focused on 1 to 5 years out. I just collect more on the dips. I buy something every week. Whatever is cheap this week comparative to my long term thesis. I do not subscribe to a chip or Ai or data center bubble in the next few weeks. Realistically the narrative will change tomorrow, or next week. I set a course, and follow that course. Obviously I keep an eye out for a massive storm, or a change in the direction of the wind. But the wind is changing direction daily ATM and its only b

🟩 Waking up to see DBS hitting record highs while your UOB position bleeds red is a terrifying feeling for any Singaporean investor. In 2025, we are witnessing a massive 30% performance gap between our local banks, leading many to ask a dangerous question: "Did I pick the wrong horse?" This video tackles the anxiety of holding laggards while the rest of the market rallies, and investigates whether your retirement capital is actually at risk or if you are staring at a misunderstood opportunity. We go beyond the headlines to explain the historic "decoupling" happening in the SGX right now. I break down the specific credit risks weighing on UOB versus the wealth management engine driving DBS, and why the market is pricing them so differently. We also dive into Singtel's massive S$6.4 billion