Public Holidays
In the coming week, there will be no public holidays in China, Hong Kong, or Singapore.
Washington's Birthday | Peterson Space Force Base
America is celebrating Washington’s birthday on 17 Feb 2025 (Monday).
Economic Calendar (17Feb2025)
Notable Highlights
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The FOMC meeting minutes will be revealed. This lends insights into the Federal Reserve's considerations and outlook for the next interest rate decision.
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Philadelphia's Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released in the coming week. Previously, the index stood at 44.3 which implies a contraction in the manufacturing industry.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI will also be released in the coming week. This will provide an important outlook concerning global manufacturing and services.
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Existing home sales results will also be released next week. These results will be an important barometer of the health of the residential real estate market.
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Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.
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Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakening consumer spending.
Earnings Calendar (17Feb2025)
I am interested in the following earnings in the coming week: Baidu, Occidental, Carvana, Alibaba, Walmart and Rivian
Let us look at Rivian
The price fell 13.9% from a year ago. Technical Analysis points to a “Strong Buy” rating. From Analysts’ Sentiment, it has a “Buy” rating with a price target of $14.82. This implies an upside of 5.64%.
Observations about Rivian:
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Revenue grew from $55 million in 2021 to $4.4 billion in 2023.
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However, the company has been experiencing operating losses, from $409 million in 2019 to $5.7 billion in 2023. The losses have reduced but the company has yet to break even.
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The earnings per share (EPS) started at -$0.59 (2019) to -$5.74 (2023).
The forecast of EPS and Revenue for the coming earnings are -$0.686 and $1.35B respectively. It is encouraging to see Rivian making efforts to reduce its losses. However, the company has yet to break even and thus, I would prefer to monitor the stock for now.
Market Outlook of S&P500 - 17Feb2025
Observations:
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The MACD indicator is showing an uptrend. A top crossover is expected soon.
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Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA50 line and the MA200 line. This implies a bullish outlook for both the mid-and long-term.
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The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend.
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Chaikin’s Monetary flow (CMF) shows an uptrend.
The S&P500 has risen 21.57% from a year ago.
From the S&P500 Technical Analysis, Investing dot com recommends a “Strong Buy” rating based on the following technical indicators.
Of the 20 indicators, all of them are showing a “Buy” rating with none showing a “Sell” rating.
From the recent candlestick patterns, we noticed that there are “more” bearish patterns.
From the above, the S&P500 should go up in the coming week but we expect a reversal (a downtrend) in the coming days.
News and my thoughts from last week (17Feb2025)
SCIENTISTS IDENTIFY WHERE "CITY-KILLING" ASTEROID COULD STRIKE EARTH IN 2032 NASA warns asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2.1% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, with impact projections spanning South America, Africa, and Asia. With a diameter of up to 90 meters (300 feet), the asteroid could unleash an 8-megaton explosion—500 times the Hiroshima bomb—if it strikes a populated area. Scientists are using the James Webb Telescope to refine predictions, but for now, the risk remains. Source: Daily Mail
Putin has invited Xi and Trump to the WW2 victory celebrations in Moscow. Xi has already accepted. Trump will accept too, according to my sources. What a blow to the EU! - X user Alernative NewsIs peace within sight?
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) warned that Cisco and Huawei would be the beneficiaries if the US government successfully blocked the company's $14 billion play for Juniper Networks. - LightReading
BlackRock paid RMB 1.2 billion to buy Waterfront Place blocks in 2018 One year after BlackRock had attempted to find a buyer for a Shanghai office complex at a 30 percent discount to its acquisition price, the world’s largest asset manager has handed over the the Putuo district buildings to its lender, according to market sources who spoke with Mingtiandi. - Mingtiandi
Image from WolfStreet
Total household debt outstanding inched up by $93 billion in Q4, or by 0.5%, from Q3 to $18.0 trillion, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Fed today. Year-over-year, total household debt grew by 3.0%. - Wolfstreet
Red flags raised after debts soar at Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s chemicals empire Ratings agencies downgraded the outlook for Ineos Group to ‘negative’ as tycoon’s sporting interests also hit crisis point - The Guardian
PPI/CPI news
January PPI inflation unexpectedly RISES to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.2%. Core PPI inflation was 3.6%, ABOVE expectations of 3.3%. PPI inflation is now at its highest since February 2023 while CPI jumped +0.5% month-over-month. The "Fed pivot" is over. To make things even worse, December Core PPI inflation was revised HIGHER from 3.5% to 3.7%. This comes after the biggest monthly increase in CPI inflation since August 2023. Inflation is far from gone. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
US ECONOMY HAS: 1) JOBS REVISED DOWN BY ~600K over the past year 2) CORE CPI INFLATION ABOVE 3% FOR 45 MONTHS 3) 694 BIG bankruptcies in 2024, the most in 14 YEARS 4) $838 billion Deficit in the first 4 months of FY 2025 5) $36.2tn DEBT - record - X user Global Markets Investor
Are the world already at war? It is not about physical bullets but conflicts waged in cyberspace. Should we be surprised?
BRICS: India Dumps Billions of US Dollars - Watcher GuruAlibaba becomes China’s new AI darling with US$87 billion rally Behind the rally is optimism about Alibaba’s efforts to develop its own AI services and platform - Business Times Singapore
“Trans-Pacific rates have eased since early January, but with expectations that frontloading ahead of tariffs will continue we may not see the typical post-Lunar New Year pre-peak season demand dip this year,” wrote Judah Levine, head of research for Barcelona, Spain-based Freightos - FreightWaves
Indian oil refiners are restructuring supply chains with new entities and shipping arrangements to continue importing Russian crude amid stricter US sanctions. Despite challenges, efforts are underway to procure Russian oil without disrupting supplies or incurring higher costs. - Economic Times
India and France plan to work together on developing small modular nuclear reactors, India's foreign ministry said after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the country. - BBC
Computer researchers in China using domestically made graphics processors have achieved a near-tenfold boost in performance over powerful US supercomputers that rely on Nvidia’s cutting-edge hardware, according to a peer-reviewed study. - SCMP
De-dollarization process is reshaping international trade as Russia and India strengthen their financial partnership, with 90% of direct transactions now conducted in national currencies. - Watcher Guru
My Investing Muse (17Feb2025)
Layoffs & Closure news
Denny’s, known for its signature breakfast skillets and specialty pancakes, told its investors that it will be shuttering 70-90 underperforming restaurants by the end of the year. - SF Gate
Bay Area tech company once worth $1.2B shuts down service, lays off almost entire US staff Getaround will continue operating in Europe - SF Gate
CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in an employee memo last month (as reported by Bloomberg) that he planned to cut around 3,600 positions—or about 5% of the workforce in said performance-based layoffs. But many of the employees affected by the move are speaking out on social media, stating that they have no prior history of not meeting company expectations. - Fortune
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TRUMP ORDERS MASS FIRING OF NEW FEDERAL HIRES WITHIN 48 HOURS Administration directs immediate termination of most probationary employees, impacting up to 220,000 workers hired in past two years. Agencies began layoffs Thursday through pre-recorded videos and group calls. Partnership for Public Service CEO Max Stier: "It's stripping out a whole new generation of talent for our government, who are targeted not because of evidence of poor performance but because they are easier to get rid of" Some workers given 30 minutes to leave premises as DOGE accelerates federal workforce reduction. National security and law enforcement positions exempted. Source: Washington Post. X user Mario NawfalThe conversation would be different if we are the ones who were released. There needs to be a correction towards better fiscal accountability but the impact to economy would be painful. Is this a lesser of 2 evils?
KPMG shut its 30-strong law division last year, while PwC has shrunk its standalone legal practice within the firm. “This week we communicated that EY is proposing to restructure our Oceania law business,” said Mr Larocca, adding that the firm would continue to provide legal services across “strategic areas” of the firm. - AFR
Roughly 275,000 federal workers lost their jobs this week. That's over 10% of the federal workforce. ~75,000 took the "buyout" ~200,000 probationary workers were let go (the WH has not confirmed the total, but this is how many were on probationary status) That's a lot of lives upended. And many gov't services will be impacted. While most organizations can survive a 10% cut, keep in mind these cuts were not even across the gov't. Many agencies hit hard in Trump's first term are being decimated now. - X user Heather Long
The cuts would result in more than 9,000 layoffs based on Chevron’s 2023 headcount. - CNBC
LAY OFFS to accelerate. Trump to eliminate 65000 jobs. Even oil companies laying off thousands of workers because the economy is contracting. Car companies such as Nissan and Volkswagen laying thousands of workers. It’s not going to be a soft landing. STOP DREAMING. Prepare for a market crash, possible depression, and war. Best to “prepare” than to spend your life “pretending”….believing in the tooth fairy. The best way to prepare for the crash is to stop listening to government officials who promise a “soft landing.” Time to get back to real life. Good luck - Robert Kiyosaki
The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week.
Can Singapore maintain its growth in 2025?
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Singapore’s annual GDP expands at fastest pace since 2021, lifted by trade, finance and manufacturing sectors - CNBC
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At some point, it is better for the Singapore SME to walk away and close shop. Are there no other ways?
Both articles seem to be contradicting each other. Is it possible for both to take place concurrently? Should we be optimistically cautious in our approach?
DOGE and federal spending
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DOD PAID REUTERS $9M FOR "SOCIAL ENGINEERING" PROGRAM DOGE investigations reveal mysterious Defense Department payments to Reuters for "large scale social deception" project between 2018-2022. While DARPA claims it was for cyber defense, questions swirl about why a news agency received millions for "social engineering."
Is this turning out to be true - X user Liz Churchill
Several articles in the past week have pointed to “wasteful” spending by the Federal government. DOGE continues to uncover questionable expenses and is addressing these. This would lead to “reduced” spending in the economy and the layoffs would lead to reduced spending power.
My final thoughts
Charlie Munger's Four Life Lessons: 'Consume Less Than You Accumulate, Invest Judiciously, Persistently Learn, and Uphold Discipline' Good reminders - Benzinga (India)
There are more articles with concerns about bubbles in the market. Some articles speak with a strong bullish sentiment with companies like Palantir dominating the market with a stellar price increase. Both good and bad news can co-exist. It is possible that both signals can happen but both can manifest separately at different timeframes.
Let us research before investing. Here is wishing you all a great week ahead.
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