To The Moon

My Investing Muse (05Jan2026) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Allianz Research expects global business insolvencies to rise by +6% in 2025, and again by +5% in 2026, before a modest decline by –1% in 2027. “Global insolvency outlook 2026-27” - Allianz Soleply filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in March after taking on too much debt and unsustainable leases, according to court documents filed with PacerMonitor. - The Street A newly filed document with the State of Michigan shows 265 employees are affected by the Farmington Hills Mercedes facility closure. 108 employees plan to stay with Mercedes or an affiliate. 157 employees declined relocation. Those 157 face permanent layoffs between Dec 31, 2025 – Aug 31, 2026. - X user Amanda Goodall US SMALL COMPANIES ARE GOING BANKRUPT AT A PACE

News and my thoughts from the past week (05Jan2026) Chamath: Fraud at this scale will end the American Empire if nothing is done Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on an all-time high $382 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 479 companies in the S&P 500. Private credit firms purchased or committed to buy a record $136 billion of consumer loans in 2025. This includes credit cards, buy now pay later (BNPL), and other consumer finance products. This is nearly +1,300% more than in 2024, when purchases totalled $10 billion. In other words, private investment funds are increasingly owning consumer debt. One example is KKR, which agreed to buy a multibillion-Dollar portfolio of credit card loans from New Day, a private equity-backed lender in Europe. Most of this debt is not backed

Market Outlook of S&P500 (05Jan2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator Following the recent top crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to suggest a downtrend. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook. There is a potential convergence that implies a trend change. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers

Earnings Calendar (05Jan2026) There are several notable earnings announcements, including those from RGP, Jefferies, AAR, NTI, and MSC. Let us look into NTI. Stock Analysis and Sentiment Technical analysis currently recommends a “strong buy” for NTIC, which aligns with prevailing analyst sentiment. The consensus target price is $13.00, representing a potential upside of over 60%. Previous Earnings Review NTI’s revenue has grown significantly over the past decade, rising from $33 million in 2016 to $84 million in 2025. The company has reported operating losses each year since 2016, recording a $9 million loss in 2016 and a $6 million loss in 2025. NTI maintains a gross profit margin of 33.6% based on a 10-year median, while its free cash flow (FCF) margin stands at 3.6%. Despite a compound

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 05Jan2026) Manufacturing Sector Outlook The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices for December are set to be released in the coming week. Current forecasts anticipate contractionary pressures within the manufacturing sector, with the PMI expected at 48.4. Meanwhile, manufacturing prices are forecasted at 59.0, suggesting continued inflationary pressures affecting costs in this area. Non-Manufacturing and Services Sector Data for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices will also be published. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is projected at 52.2, indicating an expansion in the services sector for December. Last month’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Price stood at 65.4, which points to significant infl

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 05Jan2026) Manufacturing Sector Outlook The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices for December are set to be released in the coming week. Current forecasts anticipate contractionary pressures within the manufacturing sector, with the PMI expected at 48.4. Meanwhile, manufacturing prices are forecasted at 59.0, suggesting continued inflationary pressures affecting costs in this area. Non-Manufacturing and Services Sector Data for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices will also be published. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is projected at 52.2, indicating an expansion in the services sector for December. Last month’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Price stood at 65.4, which points to significant infl

These are some of the worst performing stocks in 2025 from S&P500. Source of chart is Charlie Bilello. Are these great opportunities or is it time to exit them? $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$   $Dow Chemical(DOW)$  

My Investing Muse (29Dec25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news This offshoring jobs to India and other countries thing was already happening. It has been for quite some time. - X user Amanda Goodall L.A.’s entertainment economy is spiralling downward: Work is evaporating, businesses are closing, and the city’s creative middle class is hanging on by a thread. - WSJ "The job market is so bad, people in their 40s are resorting to going back to school instead of looking for work," per FORTUNE “Auto Delinquencies Hit Record High as Consumers Caught Off Guard.” “PYMNTS Intelligence data showed that 34% of consumers who live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to pay their bills have had to spend more than usual in the past six months, which in turn has eaten into their savings. The cost of foo

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Dec25) Private equity firms are struggling in late 2025 due to high interest rates, tariffs, and a weak economy. This has created a record backlog of over 30,000 unsold companies, hurting investors (like pension funds and wealthy individuals) by locking up their money longer, delaying cash payouts, and causing returns to lag the stock market. To raise quick cash, more firms are selling small stakes in their own management companies—a trend continuing strongly into 2025 and beyond. This helps the firms but signals ongoing industry weakness that impacts investor returns. (Source is WSJ) - X user Kristen Shaughnessy Debts, deliquencies and defaults from federal, private equity, shadow banking, junk bonds, corporate credit, consumer debts like credit

Market Outlook of S&P500 (29Dec25) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator Following the recent top crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to suggest an uptrend. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook as they fan outwards. This convergence and subsequent uptrend further support the case for continued bullish momentum in the market. Chaiki