Weekly Macro Themes - Stocks/bonds ratio turns bearish amid recession risks

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:

1. Weighing Recession Risk: The US economy faces a high chance of recession this year.

2. Stocks vs Bonds: The stock/bond ratio is rolling over as recession risk weighs and momentum shifts from bullish to bearish; relative value and positioning support further follow-through to the downside.

3. Credit Spreads: Credit spreads are catching up (/waking up) to equity market volatility, and may well see further upside; particularly in event of recession (remain cautious on credit spreads/risk assets).

4. US Dollar: Remain bearish US dollar on recession/political risk, deteriorating technicals, longer-term cycles, expensive valuations; and see credible chance of larger breakdown.

5. Global vs US: Bullish global vs US equities given the prospect of a weaker dollar, US recession, flows reversal, and extreme cheap relative (and attractive absolute) valuations for global ex-US equities.

For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:

🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!

Find out more here：
Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.
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💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?

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Weighing Recession Risk: </strong>The US economy faces a high chance of recession this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. Stocks vs Bonds: </strong>The stock/bond ratio is rolling over as recession risk weighs and momentum shifts from bullish to bearish; relative value and positioning support further follow-through to the downside.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. Credit Spreads: </strong>Credit spreads are catching up (/waking up) to equity market volatility, and may well see further upside; particularly in event of recession (remain cautious on credit spreads/risk assets).</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. US Dollar: </strong>Remain bearish US dollar on recession/political risk, deteriorating technicals, longer-term cycles, expensive valuations; and see credible chance of larger breakdown.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>5. Global vs US:</strong> Bullish global vs US equities given the prospect of a weaker dollar, US recession, flows reversal, and extreme cheap relative (and attractive absolute) valuations for global ex-US equities.</p><h3 id=\"id_1132117495\">For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:</h3><p>🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!</p><blockquote><p>Find out more here：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.</strong></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/367769452580952\" title=\"💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉\" class=\"\">💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉</a></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/413454436958416\" title=\"💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?\" class=\"\">💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?</a></p></li></ul></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/381b104429792cae7f67dc1120e2458d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"></p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>This week I covered the following topics/ideas:</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>1. Weighing Recession Risk: </strong>The US economy faces a high chance of recession this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>2. Stocks vs Bonds: </strong>The stock/bond ratio is rolling over as recession risk weighs and momentum shifts from bullish to bearish; relative value and positioning support further follow-through to the downside.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>3. Credit Spreads: </strong>Credit spreads are catching up (/waking up) to equity market volatility, and may well see further upside; particularly in event of recession (remain cautious on credit spreads/risk assets).</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>4. US Dollar: </strong>Remain bearish US dollar on recession/political risk, deteriorating technicals, longer-term cycles, expensive valuations; and see credible chance of larger breakdown.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>5. Global vs US:</strong> Bullish global vs US equities given the prospect of a weaker dollar, US recession, flows reversal, and extreme cheap relative (and attractive absolute) valuations for global ex-US equities.</p><h3 id=\"id_1132117495\">For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:</h3><p>🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!</p><blockquote><p>Find out more here：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.</strong></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/367769452580952\" title=\"💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉\" class=\"\">💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉</a></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/413454436958416\" title=\"💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?\" class=\"\">💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?</a></p></li></ul></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/381b104429792cae7f67dc1120e2458d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"></p><p></p></body></html>","text":"This week I covered the following topics/ideas: 1. Weighing Recession Risk: The US economy faces a high chance of recession this year. 2. 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Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly! Find out more here： Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading. 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉 💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":100,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/423575113363840","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":1149,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/423575113363840"}