US Market Insights (14–18 Apr): The Market Is Not Out of the Woods Yet

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Tiger_James Ooi
04-14

Read more>>Weekly: Earnings guidances take center stage amid tariff turmoil

What You Should Know Before Starting Your Week

 1) The worst of the tariff shock appears to be over—at least for now.

Temporary Electronics Tariff Exemptions:

  • On April 11, 2025, the U.S. administration temporarily exempted electronics—including smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors—from the newly imposed 145% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports.

  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified on April 13 that these electronics are not permanently exempt and will soon be subject to new semiconductor-focused tariffs, expected within one to two months.

  • Trump clarified that these products are merely transitioning to a different tariff category and will still face a 20% tariff related to fentanyl trade issues.

  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that companies such as $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ "are hustling to onshore their manufacturing in the United States," which is the reason behind the exemption.

  • However, Asian investors still cheered the temporary U.S. tariff exemptions, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ futures were up 1% at the time of writing.

Others

  • China has stopped its tit-for-tat tariffs on U.S. imports after raising them to 125%.

  • Trump has paused reciprocal tariffs for most countries, excluding China.

  • The EU has put its tariffs on hold for 90 days to match Trump’s pause.

2) Bond Market Sell-Off Indicates a U.S. Asset Exodus

  • The $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ and Treasuries were heavily sold off last week. Whether U.S. Treasury $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ market liquidity continues to deteriorate will be a key focus this week. The Treasury plans to auction $13 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday.

  • The soaring $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ price alongside the bond sell-off may indicate that bond traders are rotating into gold as a flight to safety amid growing tariff uncertainties.

  • However, the panic in the bond market has not extended to U.S. equities. This suggests that equity investors see stocks as temporarily oversold, possibly explaining last week’s rebound.

3) U.S. Equity Market Is Not Out of the Woods Yet

  • While U.S. companies may exceed earnings expectations this season due to pulled-forward orders amid tariff concerns, weaker forward guidance could pressure markets.

  • Trump may reverse course on his tariff plans again, adding further policy uncertainty.

  • It remains unclear whether new trade agreements will be finalized within the current 90-day pause period.

4) Notable earnings this week:

Conclusion

  • Market participants currently view the temporary electronics exemption as a sign of tariff de-escalation.

  • While the U.S. equity market is not out of the woods yet, many investors believe the worst may be over, which could support continued short-term buying momentum.

  • That said, valuations for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are not overly demanding. Long-term investors may consider gradually accumulating exposure through broad-market ETFs—such as SPY $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , IVV $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ , VOO $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ (S&P 500) and QQQ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ (Nasdaq-100)—to capture potential market recovery.


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FOMC Decision: Are 3 Rate Cuts Still Possible This Year?
Currently, the market widely expects the FOMC to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% in this week’s policy meeting. Last Friday’s stronger-than-expected April nonfarm payroll data has given the Fed more room to hold steady. The market is still pricing in roughly 75 basis points of rate cuts this year—equivalent to three 25-basis-point cuts. But is the market being too optimistic? If rate cut expectations shift again, could the market come under pressure once more? As the broader market begins to pull back, what impact will this week’s FOMC meeting have?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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