ToNi
04-17

📉 S&P 500 at a Crossroads: Powell’s Stance and Citi’s Downgrade Signal Trouble Ahead? 📊

Citi equity strategists just downgraded the U.S. stock market, dropping their rating from Overweight to Neutral—and the reasoning is hard to ignore. They’re pointing to global headwinds like DeepSeek’s rapid rise in China, Europe’s tightening fiscal policies, and escalating trade tensions as reasons to diversify away from U.S. markets. Add to that Fed Chair Powell’s clear message of “no market rescue,” and the S&P 500’s path looks shaky. 📍

Here’s my take: The “exceptionalism” narrative that’s fueled U.S. market gains—strong GDP and EPS growth—is under pressure. DeepSeek’s advancements signal China’s growing tech independence, which could hit U.S. tech giants reliant on global supply chains. Meanwhile, Europe’s fiscal restraint might dampen global demand, and trade tensions (think tariffs) could squeeze corporate margins further. The S&P 500 at 5000 feels like a psychological tipping point—Citi’s strategists, including Beata Manthey, are hinting at a potential double bottom. 📉

I’m leaning cautious here. Without Fed intervention, and with global risks piling up, we might see the S&P 500 test lower levels—maybe even 4800—before finding support. But if earnings hold up and trade tensions ease, 5000 could be a springboard for a rebound. What’s your target for the S&P 500? Are we heading for a correction, or is this a buying opportunity? Let’s dive into the debate! 👇 #SP500 #Markets #Investing #GlobalEconomy

Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?
After a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Is the market being too optimistic? As the broader market begins to pull back, what impact will this week’s FOMC meeting have?
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