Trump 🤝 Fed: Will You Bet on S&P Big Rebound or EM Markets?

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Tiger_comments
04-23
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Yesterday, the market was greeted with three pieces of positive news in quick succession.

  1. Trump hinted at a major shift in the trade war, saying that tariffs on Chinese goods would be “significantly reduced — though not to zero.”

  2. Trump told reporters he never intended to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

  3. US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a softer stance on tariffs during a closed-door meeting hosted by JPMorgan in Washington, suggesting that trade tensions may ease.

A Big Bounce Coming for US Stocks?

According to Emma Wu, a global quantitative and derivatives strategist at JPMorgan, retail investors net bought $2.2 billion worth of stocks as of Monday, well above the one-month average.

So, is the market gearing up for a meaningful rally? From both a technical and liquidity perspective, things are lining up — but the key question remains: Is now still the best time to bet on U.S. markets?

Some data point out that every bear market has relief rallies — but they often lead to even lower lows.

The End of US Exceptionalism?

For the past 15 years, the U.S. economy has dominated global markets, and dollar-denominated assets have attracted outsized capital. But now, the tide may be turning.

The fiscal expansion that once fueled the U.S. economy is fading, while China and Europe are stepping on the gas with new stimulus measures. From a global asset allocation perspective, the market looks like it’s been dealt an UNO Reverse card:

  • U.S.: From fiscal expansion to tightening

  • China & Europe: From the sidelines to stimulus

As the dollar enters a downward trajectory, capital is beginning to flow back into emerging market (EM) assets.

Where Are the Opportunities in EM?

Latin America may be one of the most undervalued asset classes in the world right now. In Brazil, for instance, you can buy inflation-linked government bonds (TIPS) offering a real yield of 8%, with nominal 10-year rates approaching 15% — extremely attractive for yield-seeking investors.

At the same time, Chinese tech stocks are trading near historical lows, with P/E ratios around 10. In contrast, the "Mag 7" in U.S. tech (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) are mostly trading at P/E ratios over 20, with Tesla exceeding 100. In terms of both growth potential and valuation recovery, Asia-Pacific tech assets present a compelling case.

At this crossroads, where will you place your bets?

  • Bet on US stock rebound? $S&P 500(.SPX)$

  • Or do you see greater upside in emerging markets, as global capital quietly begins to rotate?

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US GDP -0.3%: Is It Just a Beginning of Market Downturn?
The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, falling short of the expected 0.4% growth. Goldman Sachs has warned that U.S. stocks may need to explore lower bottoms. ------------ Will you stay cautious during current market situation? Or bottom with brave mind? What's your view on US stock market?
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Comments

  • 1PC
    04-23
    1PC
    I will go for the S&P Rebound 🪃😁 as 🎢 Rollercoaster still Running Smoothly [Chuckle]. With the Prata Man Flipping 🙃, it's part of the process [Chuckle] @Jes86188 @JC888 @Shyon @Barcode @Aqa @yourcelesttyy
  • icycrystal
    04-23
    icycrystal
    @Aqa @koolgal @LMSunshine @rL @GoodLife99 @Shyon @SPACE ROCKET @HelenJanet @Universe宇宙 @TigerGPT

    Yesterday, the market was greeted with three pieces of positive news in quick succession.

    Trump hinted at a major shift in the trade war, saying that tariffs on Chinese goods would be “significantly reduced — though not to zero.”


    Trump told reporters he never intended to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.


    US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a softer stance on tariffs during a closed-door meeting hosted by JPMorgan in Washington, suggesting that trade tensions may ease.


    The fiscal expansion that once fueled the U.S. economy is fading, while China and Europe are stepping on the gas with new stimulus measures.

    At this crossroads, where will you place your bets?

    Bet on US stock rebound? $S&P 500(.SPX)$


    Or do you see greater upside in emerging markets, as global capital quietly begins to rotate?


    leave your comments to win tiger coins~

  • MHh
    04-24
    MHh
    I would put money in both the US and China. They are the 2 largest economies. In the longer term, I believe US will still deliver good returns but not as much as the emerging markets.. In the short term, as the Chinese market has been too suppressed for a long time, I believe the rebound will be like a spring released. The Chinese government is obviously rich enough to stimulate its economy. In the much longer term, I believe the Chinese will overtake US to become the biggest market. However based on my experience with the Chinese/HK market, it is too susceptible to dips so I would prefer to lock in profits early and buy again at the next dip.
    @Success88 @HelenJanet @rL @Universe宇宙 @DiAngel @SPOT_ON @Fenger1188 @Wayneqq @Kaixiang come join
  • Shyon
    04-24
    Shyon
    While the shift in tone from Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent is encouraging, I’m still cautious about betting on a sustained U.S. market rebound. Relief rallies are typical in bear markets and often precede further downside. With lingering Fed uncertainty and fading fiscal support, I’d stick to selective U.S. exposure, focusing on quality names with strong fundamentals.

    Emerging markets look increasingly attractive, especially as the dollar weakens. Latin America offers compelling real yields — Brazil’s inflation-linked bonds at 8% stand out. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific tech is trading at much lower valuations than U.S. mega-cap tech, offering both recovery potential and growth.

    Right now, I’m leaning more toward emerging markets than chasing a U.S. rally. The global shift from U.S. dominance to broader stimulus-led growth may take time, but I’d rather be early in positioning for that rotation.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars

  • 北极篂
    04-24
    北极篂
    在这个多空交战、方向未明的市场十字路口，我选择谨慎押注美股反弹，但更密切关注新兴市场的轮动机会。


    短期来看，$S&P 500(.SPX)$确实出现了技术性修复的迹象，AI、科技巨头财报将成为多头的催化剂，但我心里清楚，美联储的降息预期已经被反复透支，而企业盈利增速并不匹配现在的估值水平。美股要强势反弹，需要更扎实的经济数据支撑，而不是情绪推动。


    反观新兴市场，特别是亚洲市场，受到美元走弱、通胀回落、制造业回暖的共同利好，已经悄悄进入全球资本的雷达。资金开始从美债、美股逐步转向高成长、低估值的新兴资产。越是安静的时候，越是酝酿趋势的关键时刻。


    所以，如果问我押注在哪？我会说：美股短期博反弹，核心资金则开始布局下一波新兴市场的慢牛周期。
  • RXU
    04-23
    RXU
    kind of tired with the pump then suddent bad (vague) news from Trump that sends the US equities down followed by a roti prata by him. if keep repeat, i am concerned the market will be broken by him soon.

    therefore, i will only dip abit into US and consider emerging markets via investment funds. no particular favourite or top pick

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