Is it a Trustworthy Technical Indicator for the Stock Market? - What are its Implications?
It serves as a powerful tool for identifying potential major turning points in the stock market, particularly marking the possible commencement of significant bull runs.
The statistical approach indicates that in every single instance, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was higher 6 and 12 months later 100% of the time.
I prefer to watch the charts rather than rely on simplified tables. The ones below highlight the day of the Zweig thrust with a vertical grey line.
November 2023: The first gap appeared the day after on November 1st, with a second gap forming on November 2nd – and as you can see, the market's subsequent trajectory is clear. Today, four gaps remain open, the lowest situated at $4,195 (black arrow).
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March 2023: This one is also comparable with the latest occurrence considering the choppy candles (invalidated today) suggesting a bearish reversal. it did not happen in a straight line up; and one year later the SP500 was higher, but with a correction in the middle.
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January 2019: This one is interesting, this came after the trade war 1.0, in a V shaped recovery. On January 3rd the SP 500 fell -2,48%, and on January 4th the index jumped +3.43%; sounds familiar? On January the 7th the signal came and there was a potential reversal candle (evening star) that was invalidated the next day.
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The three examples charted above make the point about these types of reversals occurring amidst choppy price action and setups that inspire hesitation.
This is the 20th event in more than 80 years.
October 2015: The signal is not bullet proof for pullbacks, and this chart makes the point about studying technical analysis for each occurrence. Be prepared for potential gaps filled. Technical analysis and support and resistance levels allow to manage risk and improve performance versus the SPX.
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